OT: Where the bitcoin bros been?
- Thread starter dorndawg
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Not surprising at all that you would celebrate someone else’s misfortune. That is right on brand for you.
Imagine watching this unfold and staying on the sidelines
*** It takes someone with a lot of faith in M1 and M2 fiat paper money expansion to watch this unfold and not at least dip a toe in the pool. ***
Bitcoin had a price of zero when it was introduced in 2009. On July 17, 2010, its price jumped to $.09. Bitcoin's price rose again on April 13, 2011, from $1 to a peak of $29.60 by June 7, 2021, a gain of 2,960% within three months. A sharp recession in cryptocurrency markets followed, and Bitcoin's price bottomed out at $2.05 by mid-November. The following year, its price rose from $4.85 on May 9 to $13.50 by Aug. 15.
2012 proved to be a generally uneventful year for Bitcoin, but 2013 witnessed strong gains in price. It began the year trading at $13.28 and reached $230 on April 8; an equally rapid deceleration in its price followed, bringing its price down to $68.50 a few weeks later on July 4.
In early October, Bitcoin was trading at $123.00; by December, it had spiked to $1,237.55 and fell to $687.02 three days later. Bitcoin's prices slumped through 2014 and touched $315.21 at the start of 2015.
And what happened since 2015 as they say, is history....
*** It takes someone with a lot of faith in M1 and M2 fiat paper money expansion to watch this unfold and not at least dip a toe in the pool. ***
Bitcoin had a price of zero when it was introduced in 2009. On July 17, 2010, its price jumped to $.09. Bitcoin's price rose again on April 13, 2011, from $1 to a peak of $29.60 by June 7, 2021, a gain of 2,960% within three months. A sharp recession in cryptocurrency markets followed, and Bitcoin's price bottomed out at $2.05 by mid-November. The following year, its price rose from $4.85 on May 9 to $13.50 by Aug. 15.
2012 proved to be a generally uneventful year for Bitcoin, but 2013 witnessed strong gains in price. It began the year trading at $13.28 and reached $230 on April 8; an equally rapid deceleration in its price followed, bringing its price down to $68.50 a few weeks later on July 4.
In early October, Bitcoin was trading at $123.00; by December, it had spiked to $1,237.55 and fell to $687.02 three days later. Bitcoin's prices slumped through 2014 and touched $315.21 at the start of 2015.
And what happened since 2015 as they say, is history....
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Just like anything else, if you got in on it early, you cashed in. If you waited until the "everyone is doing it so I should too" emotions to start flowing, you likely lost out.
Sort of like real estate right now.
Sort of like real estate right now.
I'm not worried. It's always fun to watch the comments when an asset class is mentioned. You can usually get a good idea of who benefitted and who didn't.
Damn dawg, you sold your other prosthetic leg to buy in at $43,000? Hate to hear it.
Why you working so hard to talk us into it? Almost like you need new people to keep buying or something.
How much of crypto is being used in commercial transactions?
I don't keep up with it. Has it proven out to be a preferable way for people and businesses to exchange goods/services on a large scale? Or is it still mainly a digital baseball card that some people want to pay a lot of USD for?
I don't keep up with it. Has it proven out to be a preferable way for people and businesses to exchange goods/services on a large scale? Or is it still mainly a digital baseball card that some people want to pay a lot of USD for?
What asset class doesn't need that? You had six years to buy below 1000 bucks in bitcoin. The run up from 2016 to 2021 will not likely repeat in your lifetime. Cheers.
And I'm guessing your net worth is a good bit higher than even the median for your age. You've done well.
I'm no fishwater but...
I've gotten to where I don't have to divest myself of my double wide in order to attend a baseball game in another state.
I've gotten to where I don't have to divest myself of my double wide in order to attend a baseball game in another state.
Seriously Clark? Explain to us why and how real estate, specifically residential is going to crash. How much, just give us a guess.. and when? Supporting facts would be appreciated. And remember, you compared it to Bitcoin not me... Bitcoin mind you, which has gone up 133% and back down 44% in the past 7 months.
I'll give you my prediction right now. Annual SFH price increase this year nationally 6-8%. Crazy spring selling season and cooling summer and fall. My reasoning below:
Land will not be getting cheaper. Labor will not be getting cheaper. Materials will not be getting cheaper. New houses Undersupply equals price increases. A 1% increase in mortgage rates will equate to a $200 increase in mortgage payment on a $350k mortgage. That's not going to move the needle for 90% of the home buying market. For years we were counting on boomers to move into retirement/assisted living facilities and after Covid that will not happen for a long time. Everyone that already owns a house, has enough equity to upgrade. There are no foreclosures coming. Jobs are everywhere and are paying higher and higher.
Finally let's define a housing crash. 2007-09 was the worst in history. A 13% decline in home prices. in terms of investing that is a correction, not a crash. But it was terrible for many folks. And the primary reasons it happened? Oversupply and unemployment. Once building stopped, supply corrected almost immediately. But at 10% unemployment, many homeowners and want to be homeowners were unable to buy and fear paralyzed many others. We are not even close on those scenarios. The opposite in fact.
I'm not trying to be a dick. I seriously just would love to hear the other side of the coin. I get prices are high, but that's a consequence of injecting 10 trillion dollars into the economy. So if you see something else, I am sure we would all like to hear because it really affects all of us.
I'll give you my prediction right now. Annual SFH price increase this year nationally 6-8%. Crazy spring selling season and cooling summer and fall. My reasoning below:
Land will not be getting cheaper. Labor will not be getting cheaper. Materials will not be getting cheaper. New houses Undersupply equals price increases. A 1% increase in mortgage rates will equate to a $200 increase in mortgage payment on a $350k mortgage. That's not going to move the needle for 90% of the home buying market. For years we were counting on boomers to move into retirement/assisted living facilities and after Covid that will not happen for a long time. Everyone that already owns a house, has enough equity to upgrade. There are no foreclosures coming. Jobs are everywhere and are paying higher and higher.
Finally let's define a housing crash. 2007-09 was the worst in history. A 13% decline in home prices. in terms of investing that is a correction, not a crash. But it was terrible for many folks. And the primary reasons it happened? Oversupply and unemployment. Once building stopped, supply corrected almost immediately. But at 10% unemployment, many homeowners and want to be homeowners were unable to buy and fear paralyzed many others. We are not even close on those scenarios. The opposite in fact.
I'm not trying to be a dick. I seriously just would love to hear the other side of the coin. I get prices are high, but that's a consequence of injecting 10 trillion dollars into the economy. So if you see something else, I am sure we would all like to hear because it really affects all of us.
Of course, over time, real estate on average will go up. But corrections will come, because, well, history. I've lived through enough of them to know that this crazy state we are in will not continue forever, which is what I fight against. Human behavior is very sheeptastic, so not only is supply low now due to logistics, but prices are high like you said, and then people see others out buying houses so they think they need to do so as well and voila, craziness. But guess what, free money won't last forever, baby boomers will die, and logistics will catch up. And a bunch of people are going to get caught with huge mortgages they can't afford and the houses won't be worth as much as they paid. And then, rents will go down.
All I'm saying is that right now is not the time to buy real estate, just like you shouldn't have bought bitcoin at its peak. It was a simple point. Do the opposite of the sheep.
I 100% wish I had bought some back in 2010 or 2011 when I learned about blockchain and bitcoin. But I didnt because I didnt see what value it had in its current state.
I still dont understand why it is appealing as an investment compared to any number of things and at this point there is just no reason to jump in because it trades on emotion and speculation more than anything I put money into. I remember not really knowing how to purchase it and ensure it was legitimate.
But yeah, I wish like 17 I took $100 and bought some bitcoin at the start of the last decade, even though it didnt make sense to do so at the time. I could be retired and doing what I want, instead of working in between skimming message boards.
ETA- to be clear, I also wish I bought Google stock back in '04 or whenever it was that they went public. Bitcoin is no different.
I still dont understand why it is appealing as an investment compared to any number of things and at this point there is just no reason to jump in because it trades on emotion and speculation more than anything I put money into. I remember not really knowing how to purchase it and ensure it was legitimate.
But yeah, I wish like 17 I took $100 and bought some bitcoin at the start of the last decade, even though it didnt make sense to do so at the time. I could be retired and doing what I want, instead of working in between skimming message boards.
ETA- to be clear, I also wish I bought Google stock back in '04 or whenever it was that they went public. Bitcoin is no different.
Some interesting facts about Bitcoin... As of early 2021. 99% of bitcoin owners, held less than 10 BTC. So today let's say $400K or less invested in Bitcoin. Yet 80% of the supply is controlled by the other 1%. In fact, as recently as this fall the top 0.01% controlled 27% of bitcoin supply.
Just to be clear .01% that's 1 out of 10,000. So what does all this mean... Well it's not controlled by the everyday people that's for sure. It's one of the most concentrated assets in the world by dollar value. Yes, possibly 80-100 million people own some Bitcoin. But less than 1 million own 4 times as much as the other 99 million combined... Think about that.
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Just to be clear .01% that's 1 out of 10,000. So what does all this mean... Well it's not controlled by the everyday people that's for sure. It's one of the most concentrated assets in the world by dollar value. Yes, possibly 80-100 million people own some Bitcoin. But less than 1 million own 4 times as much as the other 99 million combined... Think about that.
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Not real sure why anybody (normal people) would sell at the moment, unless you were moving due to a job or whatever. OR....you're wanting to get out of from under something you bought too high to begin with. If it's your personal home, well, you'll just have to roll over that equity into the next house. And if you have rentals, why give up that gravy train? Unless you just don't want to fool with it anymore, in which case that's a convenience decision rather than a financial one. Your primary residence isn't an investment. It's just something you hope to pay off one day, and if you do have to move, you just hope to make a little consolation money.
Again I'm talking normal people here, not folks that are out flipping and what not, making a job of it.
About 2T. El Salvador claims citizens can save about 1/2B with Bitcoin transfers from here to there.
Better believe our enemies want to get off the dollar and especially when it comes to oil. If you can send 100sB around the glove in minutes and insignificant fees then why continue to prop up the US.
Digital currency is coming regardless of how you vote or feel. China and Russia are moving that way as fast as possible.
Btw I’m more bullish on eth than btc.
Well ahckshually shouldn’t your point explain how grayscale, institutions, funds etc are accounted for in the whales and their input of ownership diversity?
This was one of the funnier meme’s I saw. There is a thread where I talked about my trepidation with it and someone posted a Bitcoin or stupid **** site. If I would have gone in then in late October I’d only be down 38%.
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I truly understand what you are saying, but for people to not afford their mortgages don't they have to lose their jobs or take pay cuts? If you don't buy now and need to buy a house, there is one certainty and one speculation... Mortgage rates are going up, that's a certainty. It's a very low likelihood housing prices will depreciate... That's a speculation. In fact it's a very rare occurrence. But if it did, how much will it fall? There have only been 4 housing corrections in the last 50 years. Here it is:
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8% from 1969-1970... Followed by 215% gains over the next 10 years.
2.5% from 1990-1991 followed by 47% gains over the next 10 years.
12% from 2007-2009 followed by 56% gains over 10 years.
1.5% from 2018-2019 followed by a 5% 1 year gain (official 2021 prices aren't in yet.)
So when you say you have lived through enough corrections are you talking about other markets? Because you are a few years younger than me and were in early elementary during the 1990 correction. Doubt you were affected unless you had a treehouse mortgage. You definitely would remember the great recession. And nobody even noticed the 2018 correction.
Any of us under the age of 70 have only experienced one housing correction of more than 2.5%, but we have seen shitloads of appreciation. So is it possible we have a 1-5% correction. Sure. 5-10%? Doubtful. 10+%? Not anytime soon.
The reality is the most likely outcome is home appreciation normalizes over the next couple of years. With lower and lower annual home price increases. No declines. And in that case someone who sat on the sidelines from 2020-2024 will pay 35-50% more for a home at a higher interest rate. That's the real risk.
It's like a carousel. If you are on the carousel it's easy to move from horse to horse. If you are standing on the sidelines, it will hurt if you try to jump on a horse once the carousel started spinning. Once you are on the carousel, you can always just sit on your horse for as long as you want.
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8% from 1969-1970... Followed by 215% gains over the next 10 years.
2.5% from 1990-1991 followed by 47% gains over the next 10 years.
12% from 2007-2009 followed by 56% gains over 10 years.
1.5% from 2018-2019 followed by a 5% 1 year gain (official 2021 prices aren't in yet.)
So when you say you have lived through enough corrections are you talking about other markets? Because you are a few years younger than me and were in early elementary during the 1990 correction. Doubt you were affected unless you had a treehouse mortgage. You definitely would remember the great recession. And nobody even noticed the 2018 correction.
Any of us under the age of 70 have only experienced one housing correction of more than 2.5%, but we have seen shitloads of appreciation. So is it possible we have a 1-5% correction. Sure. 5-10%? Doubtful. 10+%? Not anytime soon.
The reality is the most likely outcome is home appreciation normalizes over the next couple of years. With lower and lower annual home price increases. No declines. And in that case someone who sat on the sidelines from 2020-2024 will pay 35-50% more for a home at a higher interest rate. That's the real risk.
It's like a carousel. If you are on the carousel it's easy to move from horse to horse. If you are standing on the sidelines, it will hurt if you try to jump on a horse once the carousel started spinning. Once you are on the carousel, you can always just sit on your horse for as long as you want.
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I own no crypto currency. Just can’t imagine getting excited that it’s going down. Congrats to those who made some off it.
Absolutely. But whether it's a nerd in Singapore, Paul Tudor Jones, or a hedge fund. When you have a large gain in an asset with significant value, you take profits and diversify... No matter who the whales are, it doesn't change the fact that you are at the mercy of market makers.
There is the common misconception that bitcoin is owned by the masses unlike the dollar or equities. If we all magically get together and say HODL, the price will only go up. Us peons are at the mercy of market makers. And there is a difference between a dip and an organized drawdown.
Google search head and shoulders technical pattern. Now look at a BTC chart. That's institutional behavior. And it sure as hell looks like it's headed back to $30k for now. If that holds this time that's great. If not, well much more pain in the future.
There is the common misconception that bitcoin is owned by the masses unlike the dollar or equities. If we all magically get together and say HODL, the price will only go up. Us peons are at the mercy of market makers. And there is a difference between a dip and an organized drawdown.
Google search head and shoulders technical pattern. Now look at a BTC chart. That's institutional behavior. And it sure as hell looks like it's headed back to $30k for now. If that holds this time that's great. If not, well much more pain in the future.
Interesting statement. Digital currency is coming. China already in the works (of course they have banned cryptocurrency transactions coins issued by any nonmonetary authorities.) Crypto started crashing yesterday after the Fed released its long awaited paper on a CBDC. Why? Because if crypto actually becomes a threat to US dollar dominance, it would be an economic disaster. Luckily to this point, it has been merely a speculative asset. I have a hard time believing any 1st world country will allow its existence as a mean for legal transactions long term.
As for the short term... Not sure its working out so well for El Salvador:
https://futurism.com/el-salvador-bitcoin-economy
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