Don't worry, cryptobros are all laser focused on NFTs now.
I hope BoDawg has all the apes his heart desires.
I hope BoDawg has all the apes his heart desires.
OT: Where the bitcoin bros been?
- Thread starter dorndawg
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All that shows how the price of Bitcoin has changed over the years. Now, if you don’t mind, post the same data for what it’s actually worth (and how that has changed) over the same time period.
El Salvador is on the verge of collapse
The President is now basically a dictator. Business owners are fleeing the country out of fear their assets may become property of the state.
The President is now basically a dictator. Business owners are fleeing the country out of fear their assets may become property of the state.
Don’t think you realize how far up people are that bought in 2020 and weren’t just holding Bitcoin.
It's not a correction. Anything over a 20% decline is a bear market . You should know this with your experience.
Nice is right. Luckily most investors are smart enough to take profits off the table when they are up big. It's absolutely an organized drawdown. Slow and methodical. There is not enough demand to sell and keep prices from falling.
The last one went down to the 30,000ish level which had a lot of entries in early 2021. This one will likely test that. If it holds, that becomes the new base. As it's a retest/double bottom.
If 30,000 fails there is a little bit of support at the 19,000ish level which was the 2017 high. If that fails, well 10,000 and below are the next stop.
This whole thing has been going on for months. BTC setup a picture perfect head and shoulders pattern and this is it playing out. You can read up on it, but a head and shoulders is an exhaustion sign. The downside target is the distance between the top of the head and neckline, down from the neckline. Which in this case is 40,000 neckline and 69,000 top of head, or 29,000. 40k - 29k = 11k.
Not saying it will happen, because patterns do fail sometimes, but that's the typical cycle of a head and shoulders pattern. It's the most accurate trading pattern in existence and price targets are reached 85% of the time.
The last one went down to the 30,000ish level which had a lot of entries in early 2021. This one will likely test that. If it holds, that becomes the new base. As it's a retest/double bottom.
If 30,000 fails there is a little bit of support at the 19,000ish level which was the 2017 high. If that fails, well 10,000 and below are the next stop.
This whole thing has been going on for months. BTC setup a picture perfect head and shoulders pattern and this is it playing out. You can read up on it, but a head and shoulders is an exhaustion sign. The downside target is the distance between the top of the head and neckline, down from the neckline. Which in this case is 40,000 neckline and 69,000 top of head, or 29,000. 40k - 29k = 11k.
Not saying it will happen, because patterns do fail sometimes, but that's the typical cycle of a head and shoulders pattern. It's the most accurate trading pattern in existence and price targets are reached 85% of the time.
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So, again, how much is it worth right now? What is the intrinsic VALUE (not the price) of one bitcoin expressed in USD? It’s a serious question….I’ll entertain literally anything backed by some data that can put a tangible price target on BTC, but I’ve yet to see a single one that does anything other than try to predict human market behavior.
My guess is, you don’t know. I sure as hell don’t. Buying any asset simply because you think it’s price will go up in the future is not investing. It’s glorified casino gambling. Buying an asset with very high intrinsic value when the price falls below that value, and selling it when the price goes above that value….that is true investing.
Say I wave a magic wand, and I make the price of BTC $3,000. Over 90% price reduction. If you are bullish on BTC, do you liquidate your entire retirement portfolio to go all-in? If you followed your own advice, you certainly should….that’d be a once in a lifetime opportunity. Conversely, say I wave that same wand, and I make the price $3 million. Would you sell every bit of it? In regards to both questions, why or why not?
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BTC real price is worth 100k, it will hit it. Too many factors coming in the future that gaslight to that price supply wise. We should see a bounce back at 23k, won’t be good if we don’t see it.
I personally been mining it since it came out & just do whatever. I won the lottery, you could say. Area I live in, exchange it for real cash etc or places that take the coin. Fun to exchange it when you know what you are doing.
The real answer to your question is, crypto is the Wild West for anonymity, black market & laundering activity. Things that have been around since civilization & it will never go away. For better or for worse.
I personally been mining it since it came out & just do whatever. I won the lottery, you could say. Area I live in, exchange it for real cash etc or places that take the coin. Fun to exchange it when you know what you are doing.
The real answer to your question is, crypto is the Wild West for anonymity, black market & laundering activity. Things that have been around since civilization & it will never go away. For better or for worse.
How did you value the 100k?
And is it based on getting more and more people interested in BTC? And what would those people base the value on? More people buying in?
Seriously not being a jack ***. Just feels like a pyramid deal prone to topple since it's based on pure supply/demand and little utility (but maybe I'm underestimating that part). I don't know all the details either - hence me asking - just feels scammy. Don't get me wrong either - I wish I threw in a few G's early on.
And is it based on getting more and more people interested in BTC? And what would those people base the value on? More people buying in?
Seriously not being a jack ***. Just feels like a pyramid deal prone to topple since it's based on pure supply/demand and little utility (but maybe I'm underestimating that part). I don't know all the details either - hence me asking - just feels scammy. Don't get me wrong either - I wish I threw in a few G's early on.
Is it timing if you buy the dips and sell after it goes up?
I mean buy the drops in stocks and selling when they hit value is an excellent strategy.
I mean buy the drops in stocks and selling when they hit value is an excellent strategy.
This sounds really arbitrary and could be applied to any store of value asset (gold, gemstones, currencies)
Counterpoint is the USD is how virtually all crypto is valued. USD pegged stablecoins are overwhelmingly dominant and are the largest trading pairs for all major centralized exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, etc). USDC is the largest trading pair for ETH and BTC on decentralized exchanges too and now has passed Tether as the largest stablecoin on ethereum. This is a major shift from 2017-2018 when everything was traded against BTC.
International participants will want a neutral settlement layer such as ethereum (the current leader, ethereum settled more volume than visa last year) or possible another L1 crypto platform.
Stablecoins offer an avenue to entrench the USD as the worldwide reserve currency for the shift to digital currencies and already have a huge lead. Regulation should be based on ensuring all major US based centralized stablecoins are legitimately backed by certain % of cash and US treasuries.
If you’ve been watching the regulatory hearings with congress, you’ll notice there has been a palpable shift in this direction, especially among many republicans. I believe any USD CBDC will likely be limited to large banks. Given direct access to consumers would be very harmful to the banking industry especially small and mid size banks as consumers would no longer need checking or savings accounts. I think consumers will instead use privately issued stablecoins by banks, regulated by the govt and potentially backed by a USD CBDC
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This is what ultimately converted me after several years of me mocking my brother (who bought BTC below $1k) and telling him this was the biggest Ponzi scheme/bubble in history. I wish I’d read it in 2018 instead of 2021.
https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1
https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1
Agreed 100%. Powell even said CBDC will live alongside stablecoins. But that kills all of the speculative coins future as a currency, at least in this country. It will only be legal as a taxable asset so everytime you buy something with these other coins that have increased in value you are paying state, local, federal, sales and every other tax under the sun. That's not going to cotton well with anyone.
The store of value is the best path forward for crypto. But right now that message is diluted at best. And nobody can reasonably afford to put significant portions if their personal wealth into stores of value with this kind of vol. It's a speculative asset class that some investors should consider exposure to because of the long term potential gains. It's like small caps tech stocks.
The store of value is the best path forward for crypto. But right now that message is diluted at best. And nobody can reasonably afford to put significant portions if their personal wealth into stores of value with this kind of vol. It's a speculative asset class that some investors should consider exposure to because of the long term potential gains. It's like small caps tech stocks.
Agree with this mostly. Crypto as “alternative currencies” narrative looks unlikely at this point with the rise and ubiquity of stablecoins. Store of value will be good for BTC and ETH, maybe some others. Utility will be a bigger narrative especially for ETH going forward if it maintains its spot as the dominant smart contract platform.
Most newer tokens especially defi don’t even try to market themselves as currencies but basically securities without openly saying it.
I’d go a step further and say a lot of crypto is basically the equivalent of being an angel or seed investor of a startup except open to anyone with the risk appetite. I’m sure if every tech startup was publicly traded the immediately after launch, you’d see similar volatility as crypto.
The price will go up on its own with the real supply dwindling. More & more people getting into it helps too. I live my life through my BTC. Very careful, as life is about BTC fragments. Liberal areas & crypto ATMs for the wynnn.
I, like many others was in on the revolution. For most everyone else, it is a short term high yield investment. Hence these dumb threads but it’s entertaining enough.
The only threat to BTC is governments & the USA will play ball. Yet the unlimited printing press is dangerous.
On to real talk, a lot of people buying this dip, 78% today on BNACE were buys.
The other part of this? Biggest tech players are investing more more money to out mine each other. Greed doing its thing
A fall to 19k is anxiety, 10k I panic
I, like many others was in on the revolution. For most everyone else, it is a short term high yield investment. Hence these dumb threads but it’s entertaining enough.
The only threat to BTC is governments & the USA will play ball. Yet the unlimited printing press is dangerous.
On to real talk, a lot of people buying this dip, 78% today on BNACE were buys.
The other part of this? Biggest tech players are investing more more money to out mine each other. Greed doing its thing
A fall to 19k is anxiety, 10k I panic
Just in case you didn't know. You can make lots of money, whether it's going up or down. It doesn't have to be going up to make money. Ever heard of a short position? I don't care which way an investment is moving. As long as it isn't stagnant. If you're smart, you research potential short positions as much (if not more) than long positions
I’m getting ready to sell but I’m not gonna buy unless I run across a great deal or a fixer upper or some land and build myself something small.
It's worth whatever someone is willing to trade for it
Same for any currency, it's worth what someone is willing to trade for it. Not sure what point you're trying to make.
Same for any currency, it's worth what someone is willing to trade for it. Not sure what point you're trying to make.
Oftentimes when everybody begins talking about a bearish pattern (head and shoulders) it does not materialize. Similar to the S&P a few years back - up 2.5x since.
I remember people laughing about online shopping. Why would anybody do that they want to see what they are buying.
Crypto (not just bitcoin) has the potential (it’s early) to be the most disruptive technology in your lifetime (whether you are 10 or 90).
I remember people laughing about online shopping. Why would anybody do that they want to see what they are buying.
Crypto (not just bitcoin) has the potential (it’s early) to be the most disruptive technology in your lifetime (whether you are 10 or 90).
1. The internet is the most disruptive technology in my lifetime and it always will be.
2. Internet shopping failed miserably in the late 90's. It took 20 years to gain widespread adoption and it only threatened brick and mortar retail, not central banks and entire nations. Crypto assets are survivable, crypto currency is going to die because it would threaten actual currencies of countries with F-22's and nuclear warheads. The only way a digital currency is going to be allowed to gain widespread adoption in this country is if you peg it to the dollar.
3. Technical trading is about recognizing trends and playing by the rules. It works best when you are unemotional about it. What's great is if you aren't emotional and your plan doesn't pan out, you can move onto a new one.
For accuracy sakes, that head and shoulders pattern in the S&P a few years ago absolutely played out. It happened in December of 2018. The downside target was 2300 according to this December 12th 2018 CNBC article. The neckline at 2600 broke on the 14th and the S&P bottomed at 2350 on December 27th of 2018. So it didn't quite make the target, but it sure as hell got close.
View attachment 23665
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/12/sp-chart-could-be-forming-another-bearish-pattern.html
Now back to today's head and shoulders, I have news for you Jen. It's already materialized. The neckline was at 40,000. It broke. I'm glad you brought up the S&P comp because much like it, this BTC head and shoulders was proceeded by a death cross. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
There will be a few up days as it's pretty oversold and there is a lot of resistance on the way down to the target of this H&S, but the unemotional trader says it's a downtrend on a recently broken head and shoulders with a target that would represent a 70% loss from this price. Probably not going to "buy the dip" today. Let's see it get back above $40k before we get a little bullish. That said I don't short Bitcoin... I don't have the stones for that.
2. Internet shopping failed miserably in the late 90's. It took 20 years to gain widespread adoption and it only threatened brick and mortar retail, not central banks and entire nations. Crypto assets are survivable, crypto currency is going to die because it would threaten actual currencies of countries with F-22's and nuclear warheads. The only way a digital currency is going to be allowed to gain widespread adoption in this country is if you peg it to the dollar.
3. Technical trading is about recognizing trends and playing by the rules. It works best when you are unemotional about it. What's great is if you aren't emotional and your plan doesn't pan out, you can move onto a new one.
For accuracy sakes, that head and shoulders pattern in the S&P a few years ago absolutely played out. It happened in December of 2018. The downside target was 2300 according to this December 12th 2018 CNBC article. The neckline at 2600 broke on the 14th and the S&P bottomed at 2350 on December 27th of 2018. So it didn't quite make the target, but it sure as hell got close.
View attachment 23665
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/12/sp-chart-could-be-forming-another-bearish-pattern.html
Now back to today's head and shoulders, I have news for you Jen. It's already materialized. The neckline was at 40,000. It broke. I'm glad you brought up the S&P comp because much like it, this BTC head and shoulders was proceeded by a death cross. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
There will be a few up days as it's pretty oversold and there is a lot of resistance on the way down to the target of this H&S, but the unemotional trader says it's a downtrend on a recently broken head and shoulders with a target that would represent a 70% loss from this price. Probably not going to "buy the dip" today. Let's see it get back above $40k before we get a little bullish. That said I don't short Bitcoin... I don't have the stones for that.
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That’s an overly simplistic definition for any asset purchase. You could say the same thing about stocks, oil / gas futures, Pokémon cards, or what have you. It’s worth something in terms of dollars and cents that has to be defined by some criteria. Even if you decide that a given asset is something you want to buy, you still have to decide WHEN to buy. Therefore, some assessment of the current value is necessary to understand if you are getting a bargain or a raw deal at the current price.
What it’s worth intrinsically is almost never going to be the same as what it costs. In bitcoin’s case, what is the utility or growth potential? Will I be able to use it at any McDonald’s, Starbucks, etc.? Is there a tax advantage on the horizon for using it over USD? Is the “black market” expanding and prices for those illicit items going up in value at a much greater rate than current USD inflation? Answering these questions and many more can help frame a price target.
Furthermore, if it is just a store of value only, what is the advantage over gold or other currencies that tend to be much more stable and have historical staying power? I can still see the advantage to having some small % of crypto for diversification / exposure only, but nobody is getting life changing money off such a small cut from that. Any folks that claimed to get stupid rich off BTC or ETH took enormous risk to do so, and may still be undertaking quite a bit if they haven’t cashed out. Just like getting in the ground floor of anything, you can get lucky by being one of the first. But beyond that, it becomes much more range bound.
The criteria of any intrinsic value is the value assigned to it by a sentient being. There is no value defined in nature outside of human cognition therefore the most pure definition of intrinsic value is what someone would trade for it. And by trading I mean goods, currency or services, booty call... anything. Whether or not that is simplistic doesn't make it any less true.
Therefore, if you dismiss an asset's value in the dollar amount (which is what I posted) you then have to default to what someone believes it's worth which is what you originally asked. If I took a $4 gallon of milk to the cashier at Kroger and he or she dismissed the dollar price and told me to give her something of equal value, I might hand over an LED light bulb or a Louis L'amour novel. The next person in line might trade a used Nintendo DS game or baseball card. If you want to go that route in defining value then there's more entropy in that transaction data than the dollar prices that I posted. The dollar value that is paid in the present is not guaranteed to go higher or lower due to the individuals who collectively make up the market of intrinsic value presuppositions.
The people who made 100%, 500%, 1000% on their crypto investment did so in spite of what anyone thought it was worth other than the person who sold it to them. Same for those who lost 50%. That's the beauty of a conceptual free market, all the static in the background doesn't interfere with value assigned to an object or service during a two party transaction.
Therefore, if you dismiss an asset's value in the dollar amount (which is what I posted) you then have to default to what someone believes it's worth which is what you originally asked. If I took a $4 gallon of milk to the cashier at Kroger and he or she dismissed the dollar price and told me to give her something of equal value, I might hand over an LED light bulb or a Louis L'amour novel. The next person in line might trade a used Nintendo DS game or baseball card. If you want to go that route in defining value then there's more entropy in that transaction data than the dollar prices that I posted. The dollar value that is paid in the present is not guaranteed to go higher or lower due to the individuals who collectively make up the market of intrinsic value presuppositions.
The people who made 100%, 500%, 1000% on their crypto investment did so in spite of what anyone thought it was worth other than the person who sold it to them. Same for those who lost 50%. That's the beauty of a conceptual free market, all the static in the background doesn't interfere with value assigned to an object or service during a two party transaction.
Wake me up when either broader market or bitcoin is holding below the 200 week moving average. Until then it’s buy the dips.
200 week, lol. Okay. Only a 35% drawdown on the S&P and 70% on bitcoin. Nothing to see here until then gotcha.
And for the record it's not a dip unless you are in an uptrend. Of course if you're looking at the 200 week moving averages I guess there is never a downtrend.***
And for the record it's not a dip unless you are in an uptrend. Of course if you're looking at the 200 week moving averages I guess there is never a downtrend.***
Bitcoin has historical 80% drops when in a bear market. It’s not in one at the moment.
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