And we've seen what LSU has done this season when they needed an extra point to tie. If Saban kicks the XP to go up 5, Kelly goes for 2 at 23-22 and gets it to go 25-22 and then that final FG at the end of regulation is still for the tie.
Penn State and alabama have the same record (7-2).
- Thread starter BobPSU92
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Makes sense to me. I just don't like the extras involved on a 2 pt play there:
1. Bama was the favorite.
2. Bama failed 2 pt play once.
3. Momentum killer if you fail after the big broken play TD.
4. While not automatic, college xp is still high percentage.
It's looking for 0.9% advantage in the #s while ignoring momentum. If you simply take the xps when they came at you, Bama would have already had their 2 pts, ya know?
Exactly. Which is why there's technically no wrong answer. Because it didn't work, it was a bad decision. If Alvarado strikes out Alvarez and strands the runners last night, it makes Thomson look good for taking out Wheeler because the matchup worked. If LSU hadn't gotten the 2-pointer to win, people would have been all over that decision. It's always easy to second-guess. The good ones are those who are able to first-guess correctly in the moment.
Win or lose, Kelly made the right call to me. You got to play defense first. You matched their drive in 1 play. Go for the kill. And it worked.
You are correct though. If it failed..."you were at home, send it to double OT!" I wouldn't have. I'm all for underdogs taking a killshot.
Hopefully Ole Miss will take care of that potential issue this week.
Although, that would probably mean that Ole Miss just replaces Alabama in the bowl hierarchy…
If there is ever a team with 3 losses that somehow makes it's way into the NY6, it will be a 9-3 Alabama - you can bet on it.
Ole Miss could theoretically finish the year with one loss if they win this week. There is no way Alabama would get in over Ole Miss if they not only lose head-to-head but also have two more losses.
We might play Alabama anyway, just not in the NY6
i think you hit it. The first 2 pt try made some sense given the low score in the game at at that time. you want to cover the FG difference. low scoring game then turned higher scoring. nobody could have predicted that. However, the second one most would go for 1 pt.
Saban's decision on the final minute at Tenn was a bigger miss. This forum is not the only place he was criticized for that one. He should have beat Tenn.
Saban is one of the all time greats, but nobody is perfect all the time.
No matter where we go I’m excited about bowl season. Because sure as the Sun rises in the East, we get to have the annual argument about the relative merits of opting out and becoming a millionaire or playing one more (meaningful or meaningless) college game depending on your point of view.
With it being a meaningless bowl game, how many alabama players would opt out to prepare for the draft? Would that give PSU a chance if this matchup were to occur in a bowl?
We win and they "didn't want to be there" so we really don't win
we lose and we lose
They’re not. But to win the NC, LSU will have to beat us in the playoffs.
According to this board, at least.
Kielbasa and Baked beans with beer yesterday will create a lot of methane!
Any win is deemed "not Bama at full strength". Any loss is demeaned as "can't beat any team with a pulse".
A great measurement game. See where we stand.
I give it a 100% chance part of this fanbase would be unhappy regardless. Win and it’s an unmotivated bama team they had players out. Lose and Franklin can’t even compete with the worst alabama team in a generation.
…. most projections have replaced us with bama in the orange and dropped us to the citrus. Alabama had been slated to take the secs sugar bowl spot which is now projected for lsu, who wasn’t expected to be in the ny6. Lots of football left but it wasn’t great for us.
2024 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections
CBS Sports bowl expert Jerry Palm picks the teams he feels will comprise the National Semi-final at the end of the season along with bowl projections for every single game.
www.cbssports.com
Well actually I was watching the game with a diehard Alabama fan and we both said as soon as they lined up for 2 (I.e. real time) what the hell are you doing.
I don’t see the pac getting 2 teams in. We should get the spot oregon is in.…. most projections have replaced us with bama in the orange and dropped us to the citrus. Alabama had been slated to take the secs sugar bowl spot which is now projected for lsu, who wasn’t expected to be in the ny6. Lots of football left but it wasn’t great for us.
2024 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections
CBS Sports bowl expert Jerry Palm picks the teams he feels will comprise the National Semi-final at the end of the season along with bowl projections for every single game.
Might be the dumbest post I have seen on here yet. You go for 2 to try to make it a 6 point lead rather a 5 point lead because pressure might cause a college kicker to miss a PAT. WOW!
You can think it's dumb, but the numbers will tell you that going for two is the correct call in that spot. College kickers miss about 1 in 20 PATs..that's not a statistically insignificant amount....6 is a lot more key of a number in that spot than 4/5.
Except that you're looking at the wrong statistic. A coach in that situation doesn't look at all college kickers, he looks at his kicker. Will Reichard, Bama's kicker, has converted 99% of his PAT attempts over four years.
And how many of those were the biggest kick in his life with the game hanging in the balance? The XP there isn’t just a formality.
PAT blocked by a defender coming off the edge, not a miss. Don't know of many coaches that would count on that.
He’s been reaching since his first post. If you want to argue that the reason you go for 2 to get up by 6 instead of kicking to go up by 5 is because if you make it you can still win the game with a FG even if LSU scores and converts a 2 point conversion (which they likely won’t because it won’t matter if they go up by 2) fine. But to claim that you tried to go up by 6 rather than kick to go up by 5 because the other team’s kicker may miss the PAT is ridiculous. If he kicks the PAT to go up by 5 he virtually assures that LSU will for 2 to try to get up by 3 if they score a TD. Clearly defenses have a better percentage chance to successfully defend a 2 point conversion than hope the other team misses a PAT. Even if LSU scores and concerts the 2 point conversion, the WORST outcome is Bama ties the game with the late FG. So the choice is would you rather try to defend a 2 point conversion or hope the LSU kicker misses a PAT (which by the way he didn’t after LSU scored to go up 23-21). This really isn’t all that complicated.
You must have been blasted relentlessly during your coaching tenure, given your obvious PTSD.
A coach could go for 21 yard FG with 1 second left, down by 4 ... and your frazzled brain would post, through tears, "oh, like anyone else here would have known what to do in that situation, you meanie armchair coaches who didn't coach, and don't know how hard it is, and how smart these guys are, and why doesn't anyone love me? I tried! I tried! It wasn't my fault! I did the best I could!"
No one eats scones. It's muffins or nothing. Scones are like dial-up internet, and muffins are fiber optic cable and wifi.
The Big Ten would send a representative...you'd have to imagine it would be us if things go as planned the next few weeks.
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