Penn State vs Oregon statistical comparison

[Grant Green]

Some select advanced statistics for both teams per collegefootballdata.com with Sagarin strength of schedule. Numbers are ranks 1 through 134. Looks like a very evenly matched game. Both defenses match the opposing offense in run/pass success. Both offenses are poor in explosive plays compared to opposing defenses. Seems like a decent potential for a low scoring game. Neither teams plays relatively fast.

glossary of terms
https://collegefootballdata.com/glossary

 

[LB99]

The guys on XM College Sports just did a position group comparison today on this game. They prefaced by saying that everyone thinks that Oregon has far superior talent, but when you break it down, the teams are very comparable. The one big position advantage that Oregon has is WR. Defensive statistics are almost identical. The hosts picked Oregon to win, but expect it to be close.

 

[BostonNit]

Some select advanced statistics for both teams per collegefootballdata.com with Sagarin strength of schedule. Numbers are ranks 1 through 134. Looks like a very evenly matched game. Both defenses match the opposing offense in run/pass success. Both offenses are poor in explosive plays compared to opposing defenses. Seems like a decent potential for a low scoring game. Neither teams plays relatively fast.

glossary of terms
https://collegefootballdata.com/glossary

View attachment 707501

It looks like our D wrecks much more havoc than theirs. Hoping Abdul lights it up!

 

[Grant Green]

It looks like our D wrecks much more havoc than theirs. Hoping Abdul lights it up!

You may be crossing lines and looking at their line yards? Their D ranks 7 in havoc and ours is 18.

 

[BostonNit]

It looks like our D wrecks much more havoc than theirs. Hoping Abdul lights it up!

Oops I think I read this wrong. We are 18th in D havoc. They are 7th.

 

[Grant Green]

Funny, Chris Fallica just posted this....

 

[Grant Green]

 

[Marshall2323]

You’re saying we got a chance?

 

[blion72]

The guys on XM College Sports just did a position group comparison today on this game. They prefaced by saying that everyone thinks that Oregon has far superior talent, but when you break it down, the teams are very comparable. The one big position advantage that Oregon has is WR. Defensive statistics are almost identical. The hosts picked Oregon to win, but expect it to be close.

so far all the media analysts I have heard think we have no chance and Oregon may actually make this a rout. Herbie actually commented on how important it is to have a healthy team. Oregon is getting players back and closer to full strength. He made similar comment re OSU indicating that their OL is devastated making it hard to advance.

 

[nittanyfan333]

this narrative is writing itself for CJF....

"you're here because of a fluke. No one thinks you belong here. No one expects you to win this game...... Show 'em who WE ARE......"

 

[psuro]

You’re saying we got a chance?

 

[nittanyfan333]

I just don't get the media love affair with Oregon outside of the "eye test"

Strength of record: Oregon 1, PSU 4
Strength of Schedule: Oregon 60, PSU 36
FPI: Oregon 6, PSU 9

and look at the schedule. the only hard games they've had have been at home (Boise, tOSU, Illinois) and their win against tOSU was a Will Howard brain fart short of a tying fieldgoal

I'm not saying they're a bad team. they're a really REALLY good team, but i think the same schedule issues that the media bring up about PSU can be made for Oregon. PSU will have to fire on all cylinders, but we're absolutely capable of beating this team

 

[psuro]

This could be the best of times or it could be the worst of times for CJF. (apologies to my friend Charles Dickens, whom I call the Original Chuck D).

CJF wins, and they get an extra week off, but no home playoff game, which pisses off the fanbase that wanted one. And then have to play the winner of #8/#9 (looking to be Ohio State/Tennessee). But, he can at least address the "Can't beat the top teams" issue for at least this week. Plus he gets a Big 10 Conference Championship.

CJF loses, they get a home playoff game, which makes the fanbase happy. And they get the #12 seed (based on everything I have seen), and then the #4 seed (G5 winner). But, once again he can't win games against top opponents, and does not get a Big Ten Championship. But he can probably make a deep playoff run.

 

[scocha409]

This could be the best of times or it could be the worst of times for CJF. (apologies to my friend Charles Dickens, whom I call the Original Chuck D).

CJF wins, and they get an extra week off, but no home playoff game, which pisses off the fanbase that wanted one. And then have to play the winner of #8/#9 (looking to be Ohio State/Tennessee). But, he can at least address the "Can't beat the top teams" issue for at least this week. Plus he gets a Big 10 Conference Championship.

CJF loses, they get a home playoff game, which makes the fanbase happy. And they get the #12 seed (based on everything I have seen), and then the #4 seed (G5 winner). But, once again he can't win games against top opponents, and does not get a Big Ten Championship. But he can probably make a deep playoff run.

I cannot believe anyone(sane) would be pissed off if they win sat nite.....

 

[psuro]

I cannot believe anyone(sane) would be pissed off if they win sat nite.....

Oh, I know several people who are more interested in seeing a PSU home playoff game than a Big Ten title. I would imagine they represent a fair number of fans who had assumed PSU would be home in a couple of weeks, and then Ohio State had to go and Buck it up.

 

[scocha409]

Oh, I know several people who are more interested in seeing a PSU home playoff game than a Big Ten title. I would imagine they represent a fair number of fans who had assumed PSU would be home in a couple of weeks, and then Ohio State had to go and Buck it up.

Well obviously I know saner peoples than you....

 

[psuro]

Well obviously I know saner peoples than you....

 

[Psu00]

so far all the media analysts I have heard think we have no chance and Oregon may actually make this a rout. Herbie actually commented on how important it is to have a healthy team. Oregon is getting players back and closer to full strength. He made similar comment re OSU indicating that their OL is devastated making it hard to advance.

For the media it’s a combo of 2 things I think. First, Oregon is a really good team and beat Ohio St earlier in the year, (imagine that). Second, it’s the track record of Franklin not being able to win the big games. Until that changes, PSU will always be seen as over ranked or a step down compared to the top competition.

 

[Marshall2323]

this narrative is writing itself for CJF....

"you're here because of a fluke. No one thinks you belong here. No one expects you to win this game...... Show 'em who WE ARE......"

All the while the team is checking their phones to see if the NIL check cleared.

 

[MtNittany]

Urbs on Tyler Warren:

 

[psuno1]

I just don't get the media love affair with Oregon outside of the "eye test"

Strength of record: Oregon 1, PSU 4
Strength of Schedule: Oregon 60, PSU 36
FPI: Oregon 6, PSU 9

and look at the schedule. the only hard games they've had have been at home (Boise, tOSU, Illinois) and their win against tOSU was a Will Howard brain fart short of a tying fieldgoal

I'm not saying they're a bad team. they're a really REALLY good team, but i think the same schedule issues that the media bring up about PSU can be made for Oregon. PSU will have to fire on all cylinders, but we're absolutely capable of beating this team

OSU, Bosie and Wisky had them the hook, PSU has a great shot at an upset.

 

[blion72]

This could be the best of times or it could be the worst of times for CJF. (apologies to my friend Charles Dickens, whom I call the Original Chuck D).

CJF wins, and they get an extra week off, but no home playoff game, which pisses off the fanbase that wanted one. And then have to play the winner of #8/#9 (looking to be Ohio State/Tennessee). But, he can at least address the "Can't beat the top teams" issue for at least this week. Plus he gets a Big 10 Conference Championship.

CJF loses, they get a home playoff game, which makes the fanbase happy. And they get the #12 seed (based on everything I have seen), and then the #4 seed (G5 winner). But, once again he can't win games against top opponents, and does not get a Big Ten Championship. But he can probably make a deep playoff run.

I am not sure what happens if we lose. Depending on the nature of that game, we might fall back to > 9 position and be a visitor in two weeks.

Based on Jaylen Reed comments, it sounds like the team wanted the 3 weeks off and a home game. I know the fans don't want that.

 

[Grant Green]

Urbs on Tyler Warren:

Urban certainly has some undesirable character flaws, but I do enjoy his analysis. Looking forward to checking this out later.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I am not sure what happens if we lose. Depending on the nature of that game, we might fall back to > 9 position and be a visitor in two weeks.

Based on Jaylen Reed comments, it sounds like the team wanted the 3 weeks off and a home game. I know the fans don't want that.

We're certainly not falling all the way to 9th. If we lose, we'll have a home game....but margin of victory (and the result of the Georgia/Texas game) would certainly play into which seed it is.

 

[psuro]

I am not sure what happens if we lose. Depending on the nature of that game, we might fall back to > 9 position and be a visitor in two weeks.

Based on Jaylen Reed comments, it sounds like the team wanted the 3 weeks off and a home game. I know the fans don't want that.

No, that will not happen. PSU should not drop further than 6, and will probably be a 5. There is no one who thinks PSU will NOT be hosting a game if they don't win the Big 10.

 

[FTLPSU]

I WANT A WIN Saturday! Only way we get over the national recruiting hurdle.

If we adjust quickly and are aggressive and lay it all out there we will do fine.

This Bryce Boettcher is interesting--was a 3 star Dual threat QB made LB no relation to Jim Kelly obviously.

Speaking of QB's Gabriel will be the X factor....he is a great scrambler and tends to rely on that in 3rd down situations. I hope we can contain him.

 

[laKavosiey-st lion]

Some select advanced statistics for both teams per collegefootballdata.com with Sagarin strength of schedule. Numbers are ranks 1 through 134. Looks like a very evenly matched game. Both defenses match the opposing offense in run/pass success. Both offenses are poor in explosive plays compared to opposing defenses. Seems like a decent potential for a low scoring game. Neither teams plays relatively fast.

glossary of terms
https://collegefootballdata.com/glossary

View attachment 707501

Super interesting. I like HAVOC

 

[laKavosiey-st lion]

No, that will not happen. PSU should not drop furthe

5 bucks ND passes us if we lose even a tight game (my prediction) to O

 

[Grant Green]

Good Bob Stoll analysis