Playoff Picture

[HuntDawg]

Starting to get interesting. Going to be really interesting when the rankings come out.

After the 4 auto bids.. saying the big12 gets theirs.

7 at-large spots:
Looks very much like Notre Dame, 3 SEC, 3 Big 10 Schools.

Big 10 would have oregon as the winner: Ohio State, Penn State (virtually a lock, look at their schedule), Indiana.
SEC has Texas, UGA, Tenn as the front runner for their spots.. with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas AM, and LSU all being able to earn a spot.

That would leave a 2 loss Clemson out. Which looking at their schedule they dont deserve.. and would eliminate all of the G5 schools except the highest ranked one.

 

[MStateDawg]

FYI, there are 5 auto bids to the 5 highest rated conference champions.

Penn State is going to go 11-1 without beating any anyone of consequence. Illinois is their best win.
The winner of LSU/Bama will end up 10-2 and make the playoff while the loser is going to the citrus bowl.

I think Clemson is eliminated unless they make the ACC title game and win the auto bid.

 

[HuntDawg]

FYI, there are 5 auto bids to the 5 highest rated conference champions.

Penn State is going to go 11-1 without beating any anyone of consequence. Illinois is their best win.
The winner of LSU/Bama will end up 10-2 and make the playoff while the loser is going to the citrus bowl.

I think Clemson is eliminated unless they make the ACC title game and win the auto bid.

Agree, i was referring to 11 spots for p4 schools... 4 champs, 7 other spots.

Penn State schedule is a joke and indiana's is only slightly better. Both seem like locks to get in.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Saturday is going to be some good TV. Going to be some shifting.

Morning:

Miami could get mucked up at Georgia Tech;
Clemson is at Virginia Tech;

Afternoon:

Georgia is at Ole Miss in an elimination game for the Bears;
Iowa State at Kansas, could get lulled there and eliminated;
Michigan at Indiana, imagine Indiana will roll but could fall asleep;
Prime is at Texas Tech, who just beat Iowa State;

Night:

Bama at LSU, possible eliminator for both;
Nevada at Boise;
Noodle at Penn State;
Showtime at Tennessee, spooky game for the Vols **********************************
BYU at Utah.

 

[patdog]

Agree, i was referring to 11 spots for p4 schools... 4 champs, 7 other spots.

Penn State schedule is a joke and indiana's is only slightly better. Both seem like locks to get in.

I would not be surprised to see Indiana lose to Michigan this weekend, and to Ohio St. which would eliminate them. ACC is a 1-bid league unless Miami loses the championship game. So I think the field is:
Oregon -auto
Georgia - auto
Miami - auto
BYU - auto
Boise - auto
Ohio St.
Texas
Penn St.
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Alabama
Some random team like Indiana, LSU, A&M, Mississippi, Iowa St., Army

 

[HuntDawg]

I would not be surprised to see Indiana lose to Michigan this weekend, and to Ohio St. which would eliminate them. ACC is a 1-bid league unless Miami loses the championship game. So I think the field is:
Oregon -auto
Georgia - auto
Miami - auto
BYU - auto
Boise - auto
Ohio St.
Texas
Penn St.
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Alabama
Some random team like Indiana, LSU, A&M, Mississippi, Iowa St., Army

you see it the way i do. All the conf champions are going to play out. I dont even care to list them.

But i think its clear: ND and the SEC/Big10 are going to split the 7 at-large spots. Just a matter of who. I cant see Iowa State or Army... unless Army beats ND which i think would eliminate ND.

 

[The Peeper]

Saturday is going to be some good TV. Going to be some shifting.

Morning:

Miami could get mucked up at Georgia Tech;
Clemson is at Virginia Tech;

Afternoon:

Georgia is at Ole Miss in an elimination game for the Bears;
Iowa State at Kansas, could get lulled there and eliminated;
Michigan at Indiana, imagine Indiana will roll but could fall asleep;
Prime is at Texas Tech, who just beat Iowa State;

Night:

Bama at LSU, possible eliminator for both;
Nevada at Boise;
Noodle at Penn State;
Showtime at Tennessee, spooky game for the Vols **********************************
BYU at Utah.

and if the Univ of Northern MS gets beat, lots of those spoon fed over paid pre-madonnas** will walk out and not finish the season with 2 conference games to go. And of course you can forget about those participating in a bowl too

 

[OG Goat Holder]

and if the Univ of Northern MS gets beat, lots of those spoon fed over paid pre-madonnas** will walk out and not finish the season with 2 conference games to go. And of course you can forget about those participating in a bowl too

Yeah I'm curious how those collective contracts work. At minimum, they won't care nearly as much. But some may be playing for draft standing.

Opt-outs for bowls is about to hit an all-time high. Not just for NFL, but also so guys can go in the portal. The games will only be glorified scrimmages and no one will care, except those random upstart teams who are building towards next year. They may not care either, they'd also be better served by spending their time in the portal to upgrade.

Talking heads keep saying that such and such game could secure a bowl....ha, they give no shlts about that. Did it look like Arkansas was super motivated for that 6th win this past Saturday? It's over for the bowls. Only way they survive long term enough to matter is if the bowls are used for every playoff game in an expanded playoff.

 

[patdog]

you see it the way i do. All the conf champions are going to play out. I dont even care to list them.

But i think its clear: ND and the SEC/Big10 are going to split the 7 at-large spots. Just a matter of who. I cant see Iowa State or Army... unless Army beats ND which i think would eliminate ND.

Pretty much. If Army beats ND, that probably eliminated ND. Problem Army has getting an at large bid is the Navy game is after bids go out. I don't know if the committee would want to risk giving them a bid with a big rivalry game still to play. I think the only real chance an at-large bid goes anywhere other than SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame is if Miami wins out but loses a close game in the ACC championship (especially if that's to a 12-1 SMU team).

 

[MStateDawg]

Agree, i was referring to 11 spots for p4 schools... 4 champs, 7 other spots.

What you're missing is there is no guarantee for the P4 champions. The wording is simply the 5 highest rated conference champions. Every one assumes this will always include the P4 champs, but if there are multiple G5 champs that are rated higher than the lowest P4 champion, that P4 champion could theoretically be left out. Again, it's a very unlikely scenario but it does exist. Back to the larger point: no conference is guaranteed a spot.

 

[HuntDawg]

and if the Univ of Northern MS gets beat, lots of those spoon fed over paid pre-madonnas** will walk out and not finish the season with 2 conference games to go. And of course you can forget about those participating in a bowl too

at this point bowl games are nothing more than the NIT tournament. Plenty of teams opt out of those. I dont see how anyone could be fired up about a bowl game after missing the playoffs.

Think its time to shrink the bowl game offerings.

 

[HuntDawg]

What you're missing is there is no guarantee for the P4 champions. The wording is simply the 5 highest rated conference champions. Every one assumes this will always include the P4 champs, but if there are multiple G5 champs that are rated higher than the lowest P4 champion, that P4 champion could theoretically be left out. Again, it's a very unlikely scenario but it does exist. Back to the larger point: no conference is guaranteed a spot.

No i get what your saying. Thats why I started my post with assuming that the big12 keeps their spot as one of the highest rated conference champions.

If BYU loses.. and Army/Boise run the table. Its possible. But the p4 conference championship are going to be the in the top 5 probably 95% of the time if not more...and the g5 member are going to get 1 team in the tournament that same amount of time until it expands.

Thus i'm speaking of the 11 available spots for the schools in the p4.

 

[pseudonym]

Where we stand now, I think this is chalk:

SEC:
-Georgia
-Texas
-Tennessee
-Alabama

Big Ten:
-Oregon
-Ohio State
-Indiana
-Penn State

ACC:
-Miami

Big 12:
-BYU

independents:
-Notre Dame

G5:
-Boise State

 

[HuntDawg]

Where we stand now, I think this is chalk:

SEC:
-Georgia
-Texas
-Tennessee
-Alabama

Big Ten:
-Oregon
-Ohio State
-Indiana
-Penn State

ACC:
-Miami

Big 12:
-BYU

independents:
-Notre Dame

G5:
-Boise State

i agree with this. Shakiest spot going to Alabama, who'll just be replaced by another SEC school.

Always ways for an upset to wreck the picture. But if Alabama wins at LSU and Georiga wins at Ole Miss. The muddy picture gets much clearer

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Where we stand now, I think this is chalk:

SEC:
-Georgia
-Texas
-Tennessee
-Alabama

Big Ten:
-Oregon
-Ohio State
-Indiana
-Penn State

ACC:
-Miami

Big 12:
-BYU

independents:
-Notre Dame

G5:
-Boise State

I don't think you're getting 4 Big 2 teams in, each. ACC and Big 12 with both probably get 2, unless they simply play their way out.

This will then be ammo to increase the playoff to 16, with 4 teams from each Big 2 being guaranteed a spot.

 

[MStateDawg]

ACC:
-Miami

I have no confidence in Miami winning the ACC. They seem to struggle every week and then pull of a miraculous 4th quarter.

 

[HuntDawg]

I don't think you're getting 4 Big 2 teams in, each. ACC and Big 12 with both probably get 2, unless they simply play their way out.

This will then be ammo to increase the playoff to 16, with 4 teams from each Big 2 being guaranteed a spot.

There is no way the big 12 is getting 2 teams in. Their undefeated conference leader barely just broke into the top 10.

 

[Perd Hapley]

From the B1G, its hard for me to see the justification of both Penn State and IU getting in if IU loses to Ohio State. Both could be 11-1, but not have any quality wins. The B1G has a big drop off after that Top 4, and for teams in that group that didn’t play in the title game and didn’t play or beat anyone else in the Top 4, it seems a bit dicey.

I see Oregon and the IU / Ohio State winner in regardless. If IU beats Ohio State, I can see them and Oregon and Ohio State all making it. Its a bridge too far for me to see all four of them making it, though….although it certainly gets easier if ND falters or the SEC cannibalizes itself.

Definitely don’t see more than the one autobid from the Big 12 right now. And if the CFP rankings follow the polls, there may not be more than the one autobid from the ACC if the chalk holds.

Standing by my prediction that any SEC team with 2 or fewer losses, except Mizzou, will be in the CFP. Might get dicey if you have a 2-loss A&M up against a 1-loss Notre Dame for that last spot, but beyond that I think it should hold. Both a 1-loss ND and a 2-loss A&M should trump a 1 loss Penn State or IU, though.

ETA: Another SEC team that has a sneaky bad resume is Texas. If they lose at College Station, they’re 10-2 with their best win being Vandy. Hard to make them a shoe-in under those circumstances as well.

 

[OopsICroomedmypants]

you see it the way i do. All the conf champions are going to play out. I dont even care to list them.

But i think its clear: ND and the SEC/Big10 are going to split the 7 at-large spots. Just a matter of who. I cant see Iowa State or Army... unless Army beats ND which i think would eliminate ND.

In support of the NIL system I fully expect them to let Ole Miss in. It’s good PR for college football NIL spending. Not to mention, Lane draws ratings because he is so polarizing.

 

[onewoof]

Saturday is going to be some good TV. Going to be some shifting.

Morning:

Miami could get mucked up at Georgia Tech;
Clemson is at Virginia Tech;

Afternoon:

Georgia is at Ole Miss in an elimination game for the Bears;
Iowa State at Kansas, could get lulled there and eliminated;
Michigan at Indiana, imagine Indiana will roll but could fall asleep;
Prime is at Texas Tech, who just beat Iowa State;

Night:

Bama at LSU, possible eliminator for both;
Nevada at Boise;
Noodle at Penn State;
Showtime at Tennessee, spooky game for the Vols **********************************
BYU at Utah.

LSU was the elimination for the Bears. Bears should have won both against KY and against LSU. Even if the Bears beat Georgia they are still out.

 

[patdog]

LSU was the elimination for the Bears. Bears should have won both against KY and against LSU. Even if the Bears beat Georgia they are still out.

They’ll almost certainly be in with 10 wins. And picked up a huge break when FL #2 QB went out with a hamstring Saturday.

 

[onewoof]

They’ll almost certainly be in with 10 wins. And picked up a huge break when FL #2 QB went out with a hamstring Saturday.

Problem is they'll be in a log jam. Once you compare their losses with others there's no way

 

[patdog]

Problem is they'll be in a log jam. Once you compare their losses with others there's no way

Maybe. I think the logjam will clear up & no more than 4 SEC teams will get 10 wins. And I think the SEC gets 4 in.