Potential 10-2 disaster......

[howboutthemdawgs]

Possible(maybe not likely) set of 10-2 records. If this were to happen WTF happens next for atlanta and CFP?

Bama: 10-2 L Vandy/TN

OM: 10-2 L UK/LSU

UGA: 10-2 L OM/Bama

TX: 10-2 L UGA/TXAM

TXAM: 10-2 L ND/LSU

Again, not likely but plausible.....thoughts?

 

[L4Dawg]

Atlanta is easy. LSU and A&M as they would have only one SEC loss.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Don’t think you’re accounting for LSU vs Bama in this so that would remove one of those teams.

I think the SEC is getting exactly four teams in the Playoff so in this scenario you’d have to compare who has the best/worst wins.

 

[HuntDawg]

Don’t think you’re accounting for LSU vs Bama in this so that would remove one of those teams.

I think the SEC is getting exactly four teams in the Playoff so in this scenario you’d have to compare who has the best/worst wins.

Right. LSU and Bama play as well.

This weekend clears a lot up with 4 of the supposed top teams playing each other in UGA/Tex, Bama/UT

The trainwreck starts if UGA wins. If Texas wins it all gets clear pretty quick. As UGA will be a two loss team still as to play TN and Ole Miss.

A texas and alabama win... and the plausible scenario's are very limited

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Any scenario with a bunch of 10-2 would result in the teams with the weaker SOS missing the playoff - you gotta hate it but that would be Missouri & Ole Miss. Also even if Georgia finishes 9-3 - that neutral site win over Clemson out of conference looks better every week and they might get in over 10-2 Missouri and/or Ole Miss.

 

[HuntDawg]

Any scenario with a bunch of 10-2 would result in the teams with the weaker SOS missing the playoff - you gotta hate it but that would be Missouri & Ole Miss. Also even if Georgia finishes 9-3 - that neutral site win over Clemson out of conference looks better every week and they might get in over 10-2 Missouri and/or Ole Miss.

if Ole Miss beats UGA heads up. That'll trump the clemson win.

However I agree with the schedule that UGA plays. If their losses are At Alabama, At Texas, and either Ole Miss or Tennessee... they'll be the first 9-3 team that gets the playoff ticket, if there is a spot reasonably available.

You can add Texas AM to to 10-2 mix. If they have losses to ND and Texas, both at home. And their best win is LSU team that could be a 3-4 loss team if Texas AM beats them... then their schedule is very weak.

 

[pseudonym]

My current prediction:

• only two 10+ win SEC teams: Texas and Alabama
• four 9-3 SEC teams: Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M
• Georgia will be the only 9-3 SEC team in the CFP, with by far the most difficult schedule of that group

 

[GloryDawg]

If GA lose to Ole Miss that means they are probably 9-3. Texas is a tall order in Austin.

 

[pseudonym]

If GA lose to Ole Miss that means they are probably 9-3. Texas is a tall order in Austin.

It feels like people are prematurely penciling losses for a program that hasn't lost to anyone not named Alabama in 1441 days.

ETA: I realize I also picked them at 9-3 lol

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I think Texas probably goes 12-0 or 11-1. I don’t think they lose to both Georgia and A&M.

I would have Georgia getting in at 10-2 or 11-1 regardless of who they lose to. Gonna be hard to keep them out with wins over Clemson + 2 of Texas/Tennessee/OM.

A&M has by far the most manageable path to 10-2 and I think they get there and probably get in.

I don’t think LSU and OM are on the same level as these others and think both probably finish with 3 losses.

If Bama can beat Tennessee this week I think their path to getting in is really good. Also I think UT is done if they lose this week because I don’t see them winning at Georgia.

 

[columbiadawg2]

Man what I'd give to go 10-2 and get left out of the playoffs

 

[GloryDawg]

It feels like people are prematurely penciling losses for a program that hasn't lost to anyone not named Alabama in 1441 days.

ETA: I realize I also picked them at 9-3 lol

I think GA can beat Texas. I will be in Starkville. I will not get to see it.

 

[GloryDawg]

Man what I'd give to go 10-2 and get left out of the playoffs

There will be a 10-2 team left out. Big 12 will have three to four teams with 10 wins or more. They all might get in. I don't know. Probably not.

 

[HuntDawg]

I think Texas probably goes 12-0 or 11-1. I don’t think they lose to both Georgia and A&M.

I would have Georgia getting in at 10-2 or 11-1 regardless of who they lose to. Gonna be hard to keep them out with wins over Clemson + 2 of Texas/Tennessee/OM.

A&M has by far the most manageable path to 10-2 and I think they get there and probably get in.

I don’t think LSU and OM are on the same level as these others and think both probably finish with 3 losses.

If Bama can beat Tennessee this week I think their path to getting in is really good. Also I think UT is done if they lose this week because I don’t see them winning at Georgia.

Youre just hoping to get to 10 wins. Gazillion ways for a lot of teams now.

I too dont see Texas losing to Texas AM. Im not nearly as high on Texas AM as other teams. I think Texas beats them and they slip up at least one other time.

UGA has to win 2 of Texas, Ole Miss, Tenn
Tenn has to win 1 of-- Alabama/UGA
Bama has to win 1 of-- Tenn/LSU

If the above happen for those teams and they avoid any other slip ups. Which schedules look favorable for them to not slip up... they are in.

 

[johnson86-1]

Youre just hoping to get to 10 wins. Gazillion ways for a lot of teams now.

I too dont see Texas losing to Texas AM. Im not nearly as high on Texas AM as other teams. I think Texas beats them and they slip up at least one other time.

UGA has to win 2 of Texas, Ole Miss, Tenn
Tenn has to win 1 of-- Alabama/UGA
Bama has to win 1 of-- Tenn/LSU

If the above happen for those teams and they avoid any other slip ups. Which schedules look favorable for them to not slip up... they are in.

THere are always crazy scenarios possible at this stage of the season. I think we're going to see things shake out and its' going to be pretty clear on who the at large teams should be with the exception of the last spot or two, and then there will be a pretty big group that are interchangeable.

I suspect that at the end of the day, the teams competing for that last spot or two are very unlikely to have a credible shot of winning three games to win the national championship.

That said, it does seem much more balanced this year, and I think it's largely that there is no really great team at the top, so the 9th or 10th best team in the country probably will be closer to the best team in the country this year than others, so maybe there will be a big surprise in the playoffs.

 

[patdog]

Youre just hoping to get to 10 wins. Gazillion ways for a lot of teams now.

I too dont see Texas losing to Texas AM. Im not nearly as high on Texas AM as other teams. I think Texas beats them and they slip up at least one other time.

UGA has to win 2 of Texas, Ole Miss, Tenn
Tenn has to win 1 of-- Alabama/UGA
Bama has to win 1 of-- Tenn/LSU

If the above happen for those teams and they avoid any other slip ups. Which schedules look favorable for them to not slip up... they are in.

Been saying this for months, but it’s still going to be damn near impossible to get 5 10-wins teams in the SEC. Just too much beating up in each other. Same for Big 10.

 

[HuntDawg]

THere are always crazy scenarios possible at this stage of the season. I think we're going to see things shake out and its' going to be pretty clear on who the at large teams should be with the exception of the last spot or two, and then there will be a pretty big group that are interchangeable.

I suspect that at the end of the day, the teams competing for that last spot or two are very unlikely to have a credible shot of winning three games to win the national championship.

That said, it does seem much more balanced this year, and I think it's largely that there is no really great team at the top, so the 9th or 10th best team in the country probably will be closer to the best team in the country this year than others, so maybe there will be a big surprise in the playoffs.

I agree with a lot of this...

However I do think you'll be able to catch a 4th or even 5th team out of the SEC, that will be seeded in that 8-12 range be able to win 3 in a row. I mean you could be splitting hairs on that last pick b/t a 3 loss georgia and someone else.

 

[HuntDawg]

Been saying this for months, but it’s still going to be damn near impossible to get 5 10-wins teams in the SEC. Just too much beating up in each other. Same for Big 10.

Yeah I agree with this. And if they likely be battling each other for those spots. In other words if its a 10-2 LSU vs a 9-3 UGA. I only think one of the two are getting let in... its not going to kick out the a team from another conference to get them both in.

However i think without question the SEC gets 4. Perhaps 5 if the wrong things happen in other conferences.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

More ammo to move the playoff to 16 teams, where it should have been to begin with.

 

[HuntDawg]

More ammo to move the playoff to 16 teams, where it should have been to begin with.

its arleady been approved and will go to 16 in two years.

 

[columbiadawg2]

Where does 10-2 Vandy with only one conference loss fit into this equation?

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Where does 10-2 Vandy with only one conference loss fit into this equation?

You joke but they host Texas next week in a game that I am fascinated by. Diego is playing with house money right now.

 

[Wesson Bulldog]

What we need is for 10-2 vandy to play 9-3 ole miss in the SECCG. Vandy wins by a mile, 3 other 9-3 SEC teams get in and Ole miss is left out.