Potential Tropical Trouble

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Last several runs of the GFS have been showing a tropical system forming in the Gulf next week and impacting the northern GoM area by next weekend. With any forecast there is a large degree of uncertainty this far out and when it comes to tropical systems it is massive uncertainty. However, with the GFS becoming consistent with it and the Canadian starting to come on board I wanted to at least mention it. Even if one does develop there is no way of knowing now how strong it will be or where it will make landfall, but if you have interests along the gulf coast I would keep this in the back of your mind.

 

[missouridawg]

For as hot as the weather has been, this has been a very calm tropical storm season, it feels like.

 

[patdog]

It's still very early. Hurricane Andrew didn't even form until Aug. 16. We might have been better off if some smaller tropical storms and Cat 1 hurricanes had already formed to pull some of the energy out of the ocean.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

I was hesitant to say anything yet as 10 days out is an eternity to be talking about a tropical system that hasn't even formed yet. But I know a lot on here travel down there or have family down there so I was wanting to give a heads up that the tropics may be starting to finally wake up. Tonight's run may take it out completely, but it has been showing up in the GFS for a couple days now and the morning run of the Canadian is now trying to form a system.

 

[mcdawg22]

For as hot as the weather has been, this has been a very calm tropical storm season, it feels like.

I’ve read some things that said development has been hindered because of the huge amount of Saharan dust that has been blowing off of Africa since early Spring. There were several waves that started to spin but lost juice because of the dry air.

 

[Smoked Toag]

I’ve read some things that said development has been hindered because of the huge amount of Saharan dust that has been blowing off of Africa since early Spring. There were several waves that started to spin but lost juice because of the dry air.

Yep. And just overall high pressure (which of course makes it hotter).

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

GFS? Not really impressed with GFS when it comes to hurricanes. Not really much talk yet of anything down on the coast. Too far out.

Is it only showing on GFS?

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

I will add the highs do appear to sit right over the Atlantic and the other high over the Midwest so it could cause something to push south if something was to develop in the east Atlantic. But 198 hours out I'm not seeing anything. And that's still too far out to really matter

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

GFS? Not really impressed with GFS when it comes to hurricanes. Not really much talk yet of anything down on the coast. Too far out.

Is it only showing on GFS?

The Canadian is also developing a low in the Gulf at the end of its run. The euro shows nothing. I fully admit this is a long ways out and I probably shouldn't have mentioned it. Only reason I did is the gfs has been pretty consistent and then this morning had the Canadian coming on board. Since it's not being discussed I wanted to at least mention it since 9-10 days is not that far out in case anybody at least wanted to start thinking about what they made need to do.

 

[mcdawg22]

The Canadian is also developing a low in the Gulf at the end of its run. The euro shows nothing. I fully admit this is a long ways out and I probably shouldn't have mentioned it. Only reason I did is the gfs has been pretty consistent and then this morning had the Canadian coming on board. Since it's not being discussed I wanted to at least mention it since 9-10 days is not that far out in case anybody at least wanted to start thinking about what they made need to do.

No, you absolutely should have. I’ve been in the Florida panhandle for 12 years and never boarded up because my neighbor who has been here for 25 years never did when everyone else was. I saw him outside today flushing and running his generator and I asked why are you doing that. He said, “I just feel like we are going to get something in the next month.”

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

ALso going into a phase of the MJO that’s showing more favorable development in the western Atlantic and Gulf.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

The Canadian is also developing a low in the Gulf at the end of its run. The euro shows nothing. I fully admit this is a long ways out and I probably shouldn't have mentioned it. Only reason I did is the gfs has been pretty consistent and then this morning had the Canadian coming on board. Since it's not being discussed I wanted to at least mention it since 9-10 days is not that far out in case anybody at least wanted to start thinking about what they made need to do.

I hope it wrong but anything in the bath water Gulf minus shear is going to go off. Did you see the systems on the doorstep in GFS la la land?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

I hope it wrong but anything in the bath water Gulf minus shear is going to go off. Did you see the systems on the doorstep in GFS la la land?

The morning run had it paying a visit to Pensacola. The less reliable afternoon run fizzled it out in the central gulf. I'm interested to see what the overnight run does. Also to see if the Canadian keeps it and the euro picks it up. I have no idea if this one ends up happening, but the global patterns are starting to become more favorable for tropical development which is to be expected since we're just now starting to enter the peak of the tropical season.

 

[stateu1]

Keep us up to date. I have a fishing trip out of Destin Friday.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Y’all calm down. This deal has a low chance of development and Texas might get some rain. I get it’s a slow season but damn.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Y’all calm down. This deal has a low chance of development and Texas might get some rain. I get it’s a slow season but damn.

Different system. The one I mentioned doesn't even exist yet at all. Not even a puffy little cloud.

 

[T-TownDawgg]

Y’all calm down. This deal has a low chance of development and Texas might get some rain. I get it’s a slow season but damn.

STFU with your weather channel 5-day old talking points goat and let Burner handle this

 

[mcdawg22]

STFU with your weather channel 5-day old talking points goat and let Burner handle this

How dare you! Goat has Woody Assaf’s old radar.

 

[TheBigEDawg]

Where are you getting your information? There nothing about this on the NHC website.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Where are you getting your information? There nothing about this on the NHC website.

Some of the forecast models had been showing it. NHC won't touch it until there is a chance of development within 5 days and this was outside that window.

You may have noticed I said earlier the forecast models HAD been showing it. I am happy to report that all of the overnight models are no longer doing so. Hopefully this becomes a trend what the factors they were seeing to cause a tropical system in the Gulf are no longer there. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, the Gulf is pretty much a hot tub right now and any tropical system that gets in there will have more than enough juice for rapid intensification if all other factors are favorable. So not only would property and lives be in danger, but a major hurricane would shut down a lot of the offshore oil rigs with gas prices finally dropping. As much as I would love to chase another hurricane, I'd be more than content not to get the chance all things considered.

 

[VegasDawg13]

pull some of the energy out of the ocean.

Genuine question because I'm truly ignorant about this. Is that how it works?

 

[thatsbaseball]

Bless his heart I remember how Woody would rush through the weather so he could read old folks their Happy Birthdays on air. He was a character.

 

[johnson86-1]

Genuine question because I'm truly ignorant about this. Is that how it works?

I don't understand the mechanism but my understanding is hurricanes leave a trail of cold(er) water in their wake. So I would assume that if you have multiple smaller hurricanes go through the gulf, that will cool the water. No clue if it cools it enough to make a big difference in intensification of later storms.

 

[johnson86-1]

I’ve read some things that said development has been hindered because of the huge amount of Saharan dust that has been blowing off of Africa since early Spring. There were several waves that started to spin but lost juice because of the dry air.

After Katrina there was somebody that proposed actually dropping dust into or in front of major systems to try to limit intensification. Not sure how much dust that would take or what the economics of flying that dust above a hurricane would be. The article acted like the big hurdle would be legal/politics and arguments that doing so changed who was negatively impacted by storm systems. No sure if that was complete quackery or if that would actually be feasible. I could understand not wanting to do it early in the season, but seems like if it was possible to do for late, strong storms it would be worthwhile.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Some of the forecast models had been showing it. NHC won't touch it until there is a chance of development within 5 days and this was outside that window.

You may have noticed I said earlier the forecast models HAD been showing it. I am happy to report that all of the overnight models are no longer doing so. Hopefully this becomes a trend what the factors they were seeing to cause a tropical system in the Gulf are no longer there. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, the Gulf is pretty much a hot tub right now and any tropical system that gets in there will have more than enough juice for rapid intensification if all other factors are favorable. So not only would property and lives be in danger, but a major hurricane would shut down a lot of the offshore oil rigs with gas prices finally dropping. As much as I would love to chase another hurricane, I'd be more than content not to get the chance all things considered.

The areas where any storm would approach the U.S. are really primed for quick intensification in any direction I would have all my prep work ready if I lived on the anywhere on the coast. We still haven't reach the peak time for hurricanes.

View attachment 24913

 

[patdog]

Pretty much. The heat energy in the water is what fuels the hurricane. It gets dissipated into the atmosphere in the process, leaving less heat in the water.

 

[Smoked Toag]

I hope it wrong but anything in the bath water Gulf minus shear is going to go off. Did you see the systems on the doorstep in GFS la la land?

TWC meteorologist stated that temperatures have been below average: https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...icane-season-outlook-updated-still-busy-ahead

 

[TTRams]

Shush boys. Talking about storms when you haven't had one this season is like saying "Hey y'all! Did you know the pitcher has a perfect game working?"**

 

[ezsoil]

I'm On the coast and there have been very few days in the 90's this year...

 

[M R DAWGS]

Shush boys. Talking about storms when you haven't had one this season is like saying "Hey y'all! Did you know the pitcher has a perfect game working?"**

Agreed, 17 hurricanes. They ruin peoples’ lives and destroy large swaths of marshland when they hit. Ida pretty much wiped out several coastal LA towns, and those folks are just now getting back on their feet. These storms are not something to revel at, they’re something to hate.

ETA: I know disliking them won’t make them occur any less, and I hate the circle jerk that occurs here every mention of a tropical development.

 

[Smoked Toag]

ETA: I know disliking them won’t make them occur any less, and I hate the circle jerk that occurs here every mention of a tropical development.

Same