I went back and double checked cause 1 seemed weird. Not sure.
Edit: Found it and updated my table
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Pre-bracket release/post bracket release NCAA seed discussion
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Edit: Found it and updated my table
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All three may hit those spots exactly lol. I think Kasak should be 7 personally. Truax should be 5. And I think Nagao is right in the 8/9 area. Just opinions, and I know the matrix would probably have fun poking holes in my thinking haha
So our weak link to date qualifies. Hopefully he can pitch in for onceStarocci is off to NCAAs
Did Penn State wrestler Carter Starocci earn an at-large bid for the 2024 NCAA Championships?
Penn State wrestler Carter Starocci is one of nearly 50 wrestlers who earned an at-large invitation to this year's national tournament.www.on3.com
One thing that's not clearly described in the PDF description: the seeding is done as a simulated 33-man round-robin tournament, with each sim match scored according to those criteria.
The sim W-L records are then compiled. 32-0 gets the 1 seed, 31-1 gets the 2, 30-2 gets the 3, etc.
So it's not nearly as easy as just popping equations into 33 rows of a spreadsheet and then sorting by score.
There is a shortcut for us mortals: the seeds tend to correlate decently with the Coaches' Rank. So start there, then adjust up or down a few spots depending on the criteria. (Latest Coaches Poll and RPI are in the "RPI Rankings" section of WrestleStat.)
Example -- Nagao:
- 9th in the latest Coaches Poll and will likely stay there in the final poll (based on how the guys above and below him did at their qualifiers)
- 14th in RPI -- won't help him improve his seed
- Same or worse Conference Finish as everybody ranked above him. Of the guys right behind him, same finish as Romney, better than Bouzakis and Calaiocco.
- Same with Win % -- worse than everyone ranked above him, better than everyone below him
- He did not beat any NQs until the B10 tournament -- so his Quality Wins score is gonna be pretty bad
- He loses H2H to Bouzakis. He might lose the sim match to Bouzakis and still get a higher seed, but that sim loss might cost him seeding against the field (thanks to the round-robin sim).
So he's probably the 9 seed, likely not higher, possibly 10 or 11.
I swagged Nagao's seed above.
Kasak:
- 9 in the Coaches Poll. Will pass 8 Rathjen in the final poll, and maybe 6 Swiderski (who finished 3rd at B12s but got upset). Passing Swiderski is possible but not very likely IMO. He won't fall in the rankings.
- He won't get seeded ahead of 7 Watters, who won B12s.
- Since only his 149 results count, his record is 14-3 = 82.35%, below all the top 10 guys except Gomez and Lamer.
- His RPI on WrestleStat is useless, because it likely includes his 141 matches which don't count for NCAA seeding.
- Like Nagao, his Quality Wins score will not be very good. Offhand I think he beat 1 NQ before B10s.
--> Kasak will be in the 7-10 range, probably 8.
Truax:
- 6 in the Coaches Poll. He reasonably might pass 3 Pinto after beating him at B10s. Unlikely to drop.
- 14th in RPI won't help his seed and could cost him. The 7-11 ranked guys all have better RPIs.
- 2nd in Conference helps him possibly pass Pinto, and is better than the 7-11 ranked guys with better RPIs.
- His Win % is worse than everyone above him, and better than everyone below him except Berge (who's in that 7-11 cluster).
- He has a few more Quality Wins than Nagao and Kasak. Beating Pinto helps his score. But it's unlikely to help him pass anyone, and might leave him susceptible to being passed.
--> Truax is most likely the 5.
Side note: the PSU guys all have low total match counts, and that's before some missing matches due to injury or illness. This will hurt everybody's Quality Wins scores. (Only matches against NQs count in this category, but if you have fewer total matches, you probably have fewer wins over NQs too.)
Foca got injured at EIWAs and had to default during the 3rd place match. He's still a qualifier, but his status for nationals is uncertain.
It seems like inevitable that it will be
1) KO'T
2) Mesy
3) Ramirez
4) Carr
5) Hamiti
NCAA Releases Final Set of Coaches Rankings/RPI
With NCAA DI brackets slated to release tonight, the NCAA released their final set of coaches rankings and RPI; both important factors in determining at-large's and NCAA seeding. Final Coaches Rankings Weight Rank First NameLast Name Team League Points: 125 1 Luke Stanich Lehigh EIWA 388 125 2 Br...
intermatwrestle.com
NCAA Releases Final Set of Coaches Rankings/RPI
With NCAA DI brackets slated to release tonight, the NCAA released their final set of coaches rankings and RPI; both important factors in determining at-large's and NCAA seeding. Final Coaches Rankings Weight Rank First NameLast Name Team League Points: 125 1 Luke Stanich Lehigh EIWA 388 125 2 Br...
So for PSUers:
| Wrestler | Coaches Rank | RPI |
|---|---|---|
| Braeden Davis | 2 | 8 |
| Aaron Nagao | 9 | 10 |
| Beau Bartlett | 2 | 1 |
| Tyler Kasak | 7 | 6 |
| Levi Haines | 1 | 5 |
| Mitchell Mesenbrink | 3 | 1 |
| Carter Starocci | 2 | 2 |
| Bernie Truax | 5 | 6 |
| Aaron Brooks | 1 | 1 |
| Greg Kerkvliet | 1 | 1 |
I disagree with the Coaches on Starocci. I'll have to think about some of the other Coaches Rankings. RPI is just a formula, so it's hard to disagree with it.
Edit: I disagree with the Coaches having @ 165 O'Toole as #1, Carr as #2, and Mesenbrink as #3. I would have Mesenbrink as #2.
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Not much has really come out about it, but it was 100% broken. Apparently, he was actually practicing trying to give it a go and ultimately it just wasn't where it needed to be. But indications are they thought there was a chance he could wrestle as close as the day before.
I LOVE David Carr, will root for him against all but Penn Stater wrestlers. But he has an equal amount of losses to a guy he lost head to head to at Cliff Keen, ranked below him. Let alone Mesenbrink. I think Carr is the top 3 in the weight for sure and can absolutely win it, but he should not be ahead of Keegan, Mitch, or Ramirez in the rankings right now
Coach's ranking should matter much. Mesenbrink has better conference placement, RPI and win percentage.
Is there any sort of commentary driven production of this thing at 8:00 or is it just a bunch of info posted on the NCAA website? If it's the former, is it a stream on the NCAA site?
Most importantly, can whatever show there is make sure to periodically bring in Kirk Herbstreit to utter "eye test!" every few minutes with no other context given?
Most importantly, can whatever show there is make sure to periodically bring in Kirk Herbstreit to utter "eye test!" every few minutes with no other context given?
it is pre-recorded ... if you want, you can just fast forward through it to see the brackets