quad opportunities remaining on schedule

[pseudonym]

Missouri feels like a must-win road game.

opponent	quad (as of 2/7)
@ Missouri	3
Arkansas	3
Ole Miss	2
@ LSU	2
Kentucky	1
@ Auburn	1
@ Texas A&M	1
South Carolina	2

Notable results so far:

• vs. Washington State: quad-1 win
• vs. Northwestern: quad-2 win, can improve to quad-1 if Northwestern moves into top-50 (currently 55)
• @ Georgia Tech: quad-2 loss, can slide to quad-3 if Georgia Tech falls to 136+ (currently 132)
• Southern: quad-4 loss
• Tennessee: quad-1 win
• Auburn: quad-1 win

 

[HuntDawg]

Washington state can drop to quad 2 as well.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Mizzou and Arkansas are both 100% must win games. Beyond that, I think any combination of 2 or 3 wins in our last six should be plenty.

 

[57stratdawg]

I know Southern is a rough loss, but they’re tied for the lead in the SWAC, and they’re the only team above .500 in the conference. They could easily make into the NCAAT.

KenPom has them only a few spots behind Vandy.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I know Southern is a rough loss, but they’re tied for the lead in the SWAC, and they’re the only team above .500 in the conference. They could easily make into the NCAAT.

KenPom has them only a few spots behind Vandy.

More importantly their NET is a total outlier in that league. They’re only at 199, the next best team in the SWAC is 281. My fear was they’d be in that range too. If they can keep winning, it somehow may end up not being nearly as bad off a loss as it could’ve been.

 

[FlotownDawg]

Northwestern lost to NET 280 Chicago State at home back in December. If not for that horrible loss, they would be easily in the top 50 and we would have another Quad 1 win.

 

[pseudonym]

I know Southern is a rough loss, but they’re tied for the lead in the SWAC, and they’re the only team above .500 in the conference. They could easily make into the NCAAT.

KenPom has them only a few spots behind Vandy.

Southern has a quad-1 win!

 

[pseudonym]

Possible SEC tournament opponents/quads (as of today):

• Quad-1: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M
• Quad-2: Ole Miss, Georgia, LSU
• Quad-3: Arkansas, Missouri
• Quad-4: Vanderbilt

If the tournament started today, our first game would be a quad-1 opportunity (Florida).

 

[L4Dawg]

I know Southern is a rough loss, but they’re tied for the lead in the SWAC, and they’re the only team above .500 in the conference. They could easily make into the NCAAT.

KenPom has them only a few spots behind Vandy.

Southern was a really bad loss, but it's not the total disaster many here seem to think.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

Missouri feels like a must-win road game.

opponent	quad (as of 2/7)
@ Missouri	3
Arkansas	3
Ole Miss	2
@ LSU	2
Kentucky	1
@ Auburn	1
@ Texas A&M	1
South Carolina	2

Notable results so far:

• vs. Washington State: quad-1 win
• vs. Northwestern: quad-2 win, can improve to quad-1 if Northwestern moves into top-50 (currently 55)
• @ Georgia Tech: quad-2 loss, can slide to quad-3 if Georgia Tech falls to 136+ (currently 132)
• Southern: quad-4 loss
• Tennessee: quad-1 win
• Auburn: quad-1 win

We need to go 6-2 in this stretch at minimum.
2 losses being at AU and at A&M or home to KY

 

[patdog]

We need to go 6-2 in this stretch at minimum.
2 losses being at AU and at A&M or home to KY

5-3 in any combination probably gets us in. If 1 of the losses is quad 3, we’d pick up at least 1 more quad 1 win.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

5-3 in any combination probably gets us in. If 1 of the losses is quad 3, we’d pick up at least 1 more quad 1 win.

4-4 might be enough depending on who the W’s and L’s are. And probably wouldn’t hurt to win a little in the SEC Tourney at that point.

 

[HuntDawg]

4-4 isnt going to cut it. Unless its the perfect combination of wins and losses.. AND you get wins in the tournamnet.. AND other bubble teams dont do well.

The fact we are an 11 seed right now, Georgia didnt move the needle at all, and the next two games arent going to move the needle at all either......... Means we are likely going to remain in that bubble 16 going into those last 6 games. If we go 2-4 in those 6 (4-4 overall saying we beat Ark/Mizz) we will most definitley be worse off than we sit currently and most likely on the wrong side of the bubble.

5 wins down the stretch is the magic number to get us in.. why:
1) Gets us to 20 wins
2) gets us to 500 in conference play
3) means we dont have any more bad losses
4) means we have at least 1 more very good quad 2 or quad 1 win
5) means we'd be 500 in our last 10.. which is something that is looked at

 

[Seinfeld]

Southern was a really bad loss, but it's not the total disaster many here seem to think.

I get what you're saying, but the Top 64 teams in net are currently 404-4 in Quad 4 matchups while we still own one of those 4 losses. You're right that it's not a disaster in terms of being able to single-handedly keep us out of the tournament, but it has certainly put our backs against the wall all season long in terms of not being able to afford any additional bad losses. Thankfully, we've held serve so far against teams like Vandy, but Ark and Missou are two more absolute must wins or we might be done.

 

[columbiadawg2]

We'll know after the next two if the remaining games matter or if we are just playing to host in the NIT. Drop either of those and it feels like a win out situation to even be considered.

 

[Drebin]

Southern was a really bad loss, but it's not the total disaster many here seem to think.

Beating Tennessee essentially canceled it out. But if we hadn't done that, the southern loss would be an anchor around our neck.

 

[HuntDawg]

Beating Tennessee essentially canceled it out. But if we hadn't done that, the southern loss would be an anchor around our neck.

doesnt really work that way. Thats why they came up with quads.. so people couldnt for themselves weigh things different. That quad4 loss is going to look very bad as it should... and if we dont win some more down the stretch. It will very much be the anchor.

 

[Mr. Cook]

I know Southern is a rough loss, but they’re tied for the lead in the SWAC, and they’re the only team above .500 in the conference. They could easily make into the NCAAT.

KenPom has them only a few spots behind Vandy.

 

[Mr. Cook]

We need to go 6-2 in this stretch at minimum.
2 losses being at AU and at A&M or home to KY

 

[pseudonym]

KenPom has them only a few spots behind Vandy.

Southern is 38 spots above Vandy in the NET rankings fwiw.

 

[Drebin]

doesnt really work that way. Thats why they came up with quads.. so people couldnt for themselves weigh things different. That quad4 loss is going to look very bad as it should... and if we dont win some more down the stretch. It will very much be the anchor.

It works exactly, precisely that way. It shouldn't be a controversial comment that a top ten NET win balances out a bad loss. Nowhere in here did I say it wasn't an anchor. But it's a helluva lot less of one than it could've been. Also, nowhere in here did I say that we didn't have to win more games down the stretch. We obviously do.

That F on your math test looks terrible but it sure get's minimized when you follow it up with an A+.

 

[HuntDawg]

It works exactly, precisely that way. It shouldn't be a controversial comment that a top ten NET win balances out a bad loss. Nowhere in here did I say it wasn't an anchor. But it's a helluva lot less of one than it could've been. Also, nowhere in here did I say that we didn't have to win more games down the stretch. We obviously do.

That F on your math test looks terrible but it sure get's minimized when you follow it up with an A+.

but it really doesn’t. Maybe in your mind it does. But it doesn’t. The win against Tennessee counts the same as the win against Washington.

tons of teams have quad 1 wins. Even some bad ones.

We are one of 2 teams inside the top 50 with. Quad 4 loss.

quad 4 losses are much more rare than quad 1 wins is the point… so in the eyes of the resume and the committee it’s not even close to the same nor does it balance itself out

it’s not we made an F then A analogy. It’s more like we failed a test that everyone else in the class passed. The A on the next test is nice. But someone that made a B and a C is still going to have a higher average

 

[dawgstudent]

If State goes 9-9 in conference - they are in.

 

[HuntDawg]

If State goes 9-9 in conference - they are in.

I’ve said all along 9 is the magic number.

8 is very bubblish

 

[patdog]

but it really doesn’t. Maybe in your mind it does. But it doesn’t. The win against Tennessee counts the same as the win against Washington.

No it doesn’t. A win over TN is definitely going to get you more ranking points than a win over Washington. The loss to Southern was bad, but not that much worse than a loss to one of the worst quad 3 teams.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

but it really doesn’t. Maybe in your mind it does. But it doesn’t. The win against Tennessee counts the same as the win against Washington.

If you don’t understand that a Top 10 win (two of them, in fact) is more impactful than a win against a Top 40-50 team then I can’t help you. That’s just an incorrect talking point.

 

[HuntDawg]

If you don’t understand that a Top 10 win (two of them, in fact) is more impactful than a win against a Top 40-50 team then I can’t help you. That’s just an incorrect talking point.

I was referring to the type of win. Quad 1 is quad 1. Quad 4 is quad 4.

or course it helps metrically but it doenst balance any of the numbers out in terms of quad wins and losses.

and a quad 4 loss is much rarer than a quad 1 win… thus that loss wasn’t replaced by beating anyone. It’s still very very ugly

 

[HuntDawg]

No it doesn’t. A win over TN is definitely going to get you more ranking points than a win over Washington. The loss to Southern was bad, but not that much worse than a loss to one of the worst quad 3 teams.

This is incorrect period. That’s why there are quads.

go looking into how the process works. That’s like saying a quad 2 win is almost as good than a quad 1 win.. and that’s wrong by a good margin.

a quad 4 loss is bad. Much worse than any quad 3 loss. Again a quad 3 loss was losing to Georgia to put it in perspective. Quad 4 is the bad of the bad. That’s why teams teams inside the top 75 like 420-4 against those teams.

 

[patdog]

This is incorrect period. That’s why there are quads.

go looking into how the process works. That’s like saying a quad 1 win is still better than a good quad 2 win, by a good margin.

a quad 4 loss is bad. Much worse than any quad 3 loss. Again a quad 3 loss was losing to Georgia to put it in perspective. Quad 4 is the bad of the bad. That’s why teams teams inside the top 75 like 420-4 against those teams.

It's a bad loss. But does losing to the #161 team hurt much worse than losing to the #160 team? It's quad 3 vs quad 4, but in the real world there's virtually no difference. Southern is #203. Bad loss. But nowhere near as bad as losing to, say Eastern Michigan would be.

 

[Darryl Steight]

This is incorrect period. That’s why there are quads.

go looking into how the process works. That’s like saying a quad 2 win is almost as good than a quad 1 win.. and that’s wrong by a good margin.

a quad 4 loss is bad. Much worse than any quad 3 loss. Again a quad 3 loss was losing to Georgia to put it in perspective. Quad 4 is the bad of the bad. That’s why teams teams inside the top 75 like 420-4 against those teams.

You guys are so obsessed with us.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

No it doesn’t. A win over TN is definitely going to get you more ranking points than a win over Washington. The loss to Southern was bad, but not that much worse than a loss to one of the worst quad 3 teams.

I don't know if we can beat Tennessee. Our matchup by personnel is never that good with Tennessee and they have depth. They always seem to have our number.