Question for Car Guys.

[Tom McAndrew]

Grid. Proper management. They can't even do that right now, and if people really think smoothing electrical demand is that simplistic then they would be doing it already.

that's factually incorrect. Grid management is exceptional in the USA. The only place that's not the case is Texas, where the state has made a decision to not be tied into any other regional grid. Thus, when Texas runs into problems with insufficient power available, as they have in recent years, there is no way for them to draw additional power from other parts of the country.

You're also incorrect in your claims about smoothing electrical demand.

 

[91Joe95]

that's factually incorrect. Grid management is exceptional in the USA. The only place that's not the case is Texas, where the state has made a decision to not be tied into any other regional grid. Thus, when Texas runs into problems with insufficient power available, as they have in recent years, there is no way for them to draw additional power from other parts of the country.

You're also incorrect in your claims about smoothing electrical demand.

I think you misunderstand me - I'm saying there are no great improvements available in management and smoothing demand. The grid needs improvement, mostly in energy generation and reliability, but changing demand isn't a magic bullet option, its pretty much a fantasy. As far as energy generation, it's either nuclear or fossil fuels. Wind and solar are far inferior money pits that decrease reliability because of their unreliability.

 

[Nittany.Lion]

Grid. Proper management. They can't even do that right now, and if people really think smoothing electrical demand is that simplistic then they would be doing it already. As far as battery tech there's no significant improvement coming. Batteries have been around longer than the combustion engine, lithium batteries for the last 30 years. Quality control and durability have improved, but the amount of energy they can store - it's simply limited by physics with no way to change it. Maybe the electric motors have a big improvement still available, but they've been around longer than the combustion engine too. There's simply no magic way to decrease the amount of materials needed to make the drive train for an EV.

As far as battery tech there's no significant improvement coming

LOL

ever hear of smart meters or bi-directional charging or solid-state charging?

Solid Power begins pilot production of solid-state EV battery (cnbc.com)

....cable technology improvements alone are going to be significant

Electric vehicles could fully recharge in under 5 minutes with new charging station cable design - Purdue University News

How about no nickel or cobalt?

Tesla is already using cobalt-free LFP batteries in half of its new cars produced | Electrek

 

[91Joe95]

LOL

ever hear of smart meters or bi-directional charging or solid-state charging?

Solid Power begins pilot production of solid-state EV battery (cnbc.com)

....cable technology improvements alone are going to be significant

Electric vehicles could fully recharge in under 5 minutes with new charging station cable design - Purdue University News

How about no nickel or cobalt?

Tesla is already using cobalt-free LFP batteries in half of its new cars produced | Electrek

There's nothing terribly significant in your articles. You take out nickle and cobalt to save a few bucks/handle shortages and energy density in the battery goes down, producing a lower range vehicle. That's the opposite of what you want. That's less power in the same size battery, not more. As far as recharge times, your first article talks about cooling times and technology, this time evaporative cooling. There's nothing new about evaporative cooling. Gas needs more space, which requires a bigger system. It also requires more energy to cool and recondense the gas back into a liquid for the next use. As far as electronic control and bigger/more wires to handle more power, there's nothing special or new. I will say that if you have a big facility with the space it might help.

Let's take a step back. When it comes to EV's there are several distinct challenges/problems:

1) There's cost of the drive train. That cost is heavily dependent on raw materials and how much is required. You have no realistic way to reduce that amount through improved battery tech. You can argue the production cost of lithium can be brought down, but that requires a significant, and I do mean significant expansion in mining and production facilities. Lithium may be one of the most abundant elements on earth, but it's not found in any great concentration like an iron ore is. That means it's production cost will always be more expensive than a gas powered drive train. Rare earth metals are not actually rare, but try opening up a new mining facility for them in the US. They help reduce the amount of lithium, but not by a huge amount.

2) Recharge times - I consider that more of a performance issue. It's important for longer trips, but people's tolerance for that varies.

3) The grid. The load of EVs will have to be accounted for. The biggest issue with it right now is all the electrical generation that has and continues to be shut down and/or taxed.

4) No one mentions this, it's more of what I see as a future problem waiting to be discovered, but recharging in the garage.

5) Have we talked about no realistic way to drop the price of an EV low enough to be competitive with a low priced gas car? See issue #1. If you're going to mass produce something it needs to be close enough in price that the yearly savings can make up the difference. Again, see #1.

As always, use hybrids as a cautionary tale.

 

[Nittany.Lion]

There's nothing terribly significant in your articles. You take out nickle and cobalt to save a few bucks/handle shortages and energy density in the battery goes down, producing a lower range vehicle. That's the opposite of what you want. That's less power in the same size battery, not more. As far as recharge times, your first article talks about cooling times and technology, this time evaporative cooling. There's nothing new about evaporative cooling. Gas needs more space, which requires a bigger system. It also requires more energy to cool and recondense the gas back into a liquid for the next use. As far as electronic control and bigger/more wires to handle more power, there's nothing special or new. I will say that if you have a big facility with the space it might help.

Let's take a step back. When it comes to EV's there are several distinct challenges/problems:

1) There's cost of the drive train. That cost is heavily dependent on raw materials and how much is required. You have no realistic way to reduce that amount through improved battery tech. You can argue the production cost of lithium can be brought down, but that requires a significant, and I do mean significant expansion in mining and production facilities. Lithium may be one of the most abundant elements on earth, but it's not found in any great concentration like an iron ore is. That means it's production cost will always be more expensive than a gas powered drive train. Rare earth metals are not actually rare, but try opening up a new mining facility for them in the US. They help reduce the amount of lithium, but not by a huge amount.

2) Recharge times - I consider that more of a performance issue. It's important for longer trips, but people's tolerance for that varies.

3) The grid. The load of EVs will have to be accounted for. The biggest issue with it right now is all the electrical generation that has and continues to be shut down and/or taxed.

4) No one mentions this, it's more of what I see as a future problem waiting to be discovered, but recharging in the garage.

5) Have we talked about no realistic way to drop the price of an EV low enough to be competitive with a low priced gas car? See issue #1. If you're going to mass produce something it needs to be close enough in price that the yearly savings can make up the difference. Again, see #1.

As always, use hybrids as a cautionary tale.

It wouldn't matter if I presented you with dozens of articles about improving technology and possibilities, you'd just come up with some rationalization because of visionless rigid thinking based on skepticism, pessimism, rather than...... ahh..... never mind..... it's not worth it.

 

[91Joe95]

It wouldn't matter if I presented you with dozens of articles about improving technology and possibilities, you'd just come up with some rationalization because of visionless rigid thinking based on skepticism, pessimism, rather than...... ahh..... never mind..... it's not worth it.

Yes, that must be it, and not because I've manufactured lithium metal utilizing two different processes, or that heat transfer and fluid flow happen to be some of the first things you learn in chemical engineering. Yeah, fluff pieces by writers hyping the otherwise mundane are so hard to spot. As much as I love a good engineering solution, sadly it can't fix the physics problems of battery tech.

 

[NoSoup4U]

And that addresses nothing in terms of power generation. Where is all that energy going to come from? You can't store what you don't have. Right now, you've got two choices for the GW/TW increases that will be necessary to address current demand, fossil and nuke. Energy demands are already outstripping capacity.

point is it available and can be stored--- how you get there sure is a question to date but your first complaint about it not falling from out of you know where well there is this thing that is 94 million miles away that provides said energy from the sky.

 

[Nohow]

Sodium-ion batteries are expected to replace lithium.
<https://www.e-motec.net/sodium-ion-...atteries have led,of this category of vehicle.>

By the estimates;
2.5M Electric cars in the U.S.
Almost 300M gas powered cars registered in U.S.

Long way to go.....and not sure where all that lithium and cobalt will come from and who will make the batteries? Hmm...

And lithium is So healthy for the environment and our water tables.... Hmm...

 

[leinbacker]

<https://mjbradley.com/sites/default/files/CT_PEV_CB_Analysis_FINAL.pdf>
And if you acknowledge society’s obligation to mitigate climate change, there is no alternative.

because the climate isn’t suppose to change? What next, spend trillions to stop the earth from spinning faster?

 

[Nohow]

because the climate isn’t suppose to change? What next, spend trillions to stop the earth from spinning faster?

Moronic.

 

[leinbacker]

Moronic.

tell us the optimum temperature for the Earth and when was it last achieved

 

[psu1]

It seems to me that all the big car companies are pretty much betting the farm on electric vehicles for 2030 and beyond. I just don't know that the infrastructure required to support 100% EV in the future will be there.

Plus I don't think most foreign countries are going to go 100% EV, so there's still going to be a huge market for internal combustion engine powered cars.

What do you guys think?

f that electric vehicle, thats like trying to take ones guns and ammo!!!

 

[Rick76]

tell us the optimum temperature for the Earth and when was it last achieved

and who decides.

I heard a talk the other day that temperatures have been recorded for less than 200 years. That's a blip in the 4 billion years that the earth has been around.

 

[Nitt1300]

tell us the optimum temperature for the Earth and when was it last achieved

not what we have now

early 1700s

 

[ILLINOISLION]

Two problems with electric cars:

1) Finding REALLY LONG electrical cords.

2) Untangling those cords when out in traffic.

 

[Nohow]

tell us the optimum temperature for the Earth and when was it last achieved

A stable temperature, so society and the environment can adapt. It's changing too fast now, the average rate of increase since 1981 has been more than twice the rate than before. In fact, the past five years have been the warmest five years in centuries. This can be seen by all the wildfires, habitat loss, floods, high temperatures, glacier melt and rising oceans.

 

[smealpsu05]

Reative to your examples EVs wil not require significant capital investment. EV is the end use of the power source-you are providing examples of creating the power source.

Regarding your final comment - two colleagues have EV. They both report a $45-60 increase in theif electric bills per month. Both drive in excess of 1000 miles per month. They would pay a lot more per month for gasoline for the same number of miles driven.

I would not characterize either as “greenies.“

I have a plug in EV and received my first bill. I saw an increase of $60 in the hottest month of the year. I was paying about $450/month in gas for my SUV.

 

[Nittany.Lion]

Coal was the fuel of choice that allowed the industrial revolution and Pax Brittanica.

Then coal became bad and oil was the savior.

Then oil became bad and nuclear was the savior.

Then nuclear became bad and nat gas was the savior.

Now nat gas is bad and windmills, solar and EVs are the savior.


As a 30 year nuclear engineer and employee of major nuclear utlities and engineering companies, nuclear isn't the overall answer. I started working on the two new nuclear units in Georgia in 2008. They might come on line next year - 15 friggin' years. And the company that was building two similar units in South Carolina went bankrupt.

And wait until all the greenies see their electric bills for charging their EV's in the future.

Not to mention that costs for the two newer units at Vogtle are now pushing $15 Billion! Refresh my memory, what's the production capacity of the units under construction?

 

[leinbacker]

A stable temperature, so society and the environment can adapt. It's changing too fast now, the average rate of increase since 1981 has been more than twice the rate than before. In fact, the past five years have been the warmest five years in centuries. This can be seen by all the wildfires, habitat loss, floods, high temperatures, glacier melt and rising oceans.

Twice the rate than before? When was the before?

Still need to know the optimum temperature, else there would be on reachable goal.

 

[Nohow]

Twice the rate than before? When was the before?

Still need to know the optimum temperature, else there would be on reachable goal.

1981. Can you read?
A stable temperature. Pick a year. Can you read?

 

[leinbacker]

1981. Can you read?
A stable temperature. Pick a year. Can you read?

So a flat earth temperature?

 

[Yogiman71]

It seems to me that all the big car companies are pretty much betting the farm on electric vehicles for 2030 and beyond. I just don't know that the infrastructure required to support 100% EV in the future will be there.

Plus I don't think most foreign countries are going to go 100% EV, so there's still going to be a huge market for internal combustion engine powered cars.

What do you guys think?

Every major car Company on the entire planet is shifting to EV, in a very Big Way. It’s a matter of time before charging stations increase exponentially across the country. Many folks in sunbelt states willl have solar roof panels that will charge their vehicles at home, grinning as they drive by gas stations. Change is happening for the better, the most popular and High end car makers know where the market is going and are investing billions. Carbon heads will succumb to progress coughing on their diesel fumes as the inevitable happens.

 

[bdgan]

and ask yourself- how often do you actually drive more than 400 miles at one sitting?

True, but you don't have to fear running out of charge in an ICE.

It's a pain in the rear to plug in every night. Not the end of the world but a pain.

I don't understand all of the government subsidized charging stations. Who wants to wait (and pay) for their car to charge. I can see them along thruways and at hotels where you can charge overnight. Otherwise people will charge at home.

 

[Rick76]

Just heard this morning that electricity rates in the UK are up 80% over last year's rates. A lot of this is Putin driven, but many countries in Europe went big time renewables.

 

[Rick76]

Not to mention that costs for the two newer units at Vogtle are now pushing $15 Billion! Refresh my memory, what's the production capacity of the units under construction?

About 1,150 MWe each.

 

[91Joe95]

Well ****, grid problems already, and not in Texas.

Californians Told Not to Charge Electric Cars Days After Gas Car Sales Ban

The California Air Resources Board recently approved a rule to require all new cars sold in California to be free of greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.

www.newsweek.com

 

[ChandlerPearce]

Electric rates are goverend by the PUC, which would cap a rate increase. Gasoline prices are based on supply and demand and have no cap. But, if your electric prices go up, so will your gasoline prices, because your local gas station sets a price based on the purchase price of the fuel, plus their overhead - which includes the electriicty to power the pumps, canopy to keep you dry during the rain while you pump your gas, and the convenience store where you get your coffee.

Legisltature could and probably should tax EVs. They use the infrastructure just like every other vehicle. However, like most technology related to the auto industry, higher end vehicles tend to be the first place that new technology is tried and used Everything as simple as auto transmissions, power windoes, NAV systems, etc. But, after a while it becomes commonplace. That said, Ford's F150 EV starts at around $42K. Chevy Bolt is around $40K. NIssan Leaf - $32K. The median price of a new car is around $37,000. There are EV that are available between $40-$50K. (I am looking at MSRP, not the price the dealer will actualy sell the car for - who knows that will be). So, I am not in agremeent that rich people will be ones owning EVs.

I don't understand why you would equate a battery disposal fee to nuclear waste. As someone who says they have been in nuclear energy for 30 years, you are surely aware that nuclear waste is goverened by the NRC and that waste is still radioactive. Hence the need for special disposl sites, which are paid for by ....the nuclear plants. EV batteries are simply not the same thing. They are not radioactive, and they would be considered solid waste, whcih is regulated by state laws.

I get the sense you have an issue with "environmentalists" or "greenies", which is a bit suprising, since you are probably aware Nuclear power is probably the greenest man made power available.
to indcondi
But that said, and as someone else has said, you are probably not getting away from ICE vehicles anytime soon. However, electric cars (and hybrids) are certainly going to be part of the future.

i agree with most of your post...however i think most here are missing a major component. I believe the main objective is change perception of young buyers. Few car guys will convert to strickly EV...we may acquire one for short trips around town...but to dispose of my "American Muscle" just isn't going to happen. Presently i feel most marketing is geared toward the young and future generations...that segment doesn't have the natural affection of power and speed from a massive V8 or larger motor...remember we had no Playstation, no home computer, no gaming sites...we had our cars and learned to wrench. Change and technology advancements will always occur....but until the "flex capacitor" is available for fuel i'll stay with my "American Muscle"

 

[91Joe95]

Change and technology advancements will always occur...

I just find it amusing that EV's have been around longer than gas powered cars. Battery power was one of the first power sources for a car and internal combustion was the change and advancement in technology that sent them to the scrap heap. On the plus side we get to buy lots of lithium from China and Russia though.

 

[psuro]

i agree with most of your post...however i think most here are missing a major component. I believe the main objective is change perception of young buyers. Few car guys will convert to strickly EV...we may acquire one for short trips around town...but to dispose of my "American Muscle" just isn't going to happen. Presently i feel most marketing is geared toward the young and future generations...that segment doesn't have the natural affection of power and speed from a massive V8 or larger motor...remember we had no Playstation, no home computer, no gaming sites...we had our cars and learned to wrench. Change and technology advancements will always occur....but until the "flex capacitor" is available for fuel i'll stay with my "American Muscle"

We also had to deal with centefolds with staples - not any more.

What a time to be alive!

 

[PSU12046]

We also had to deal with centerfolds with staples - not any more.

What a time to be alive!

. . . and big blonde hair and mullets

 

[laKavosiey-st lion]

What could possibly go wrong?
Idiots.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[cntblvitsbutter]

The transition to EV cars is going to happen. It's just a matter of how long it's going to take. The world simply cannot continue to burn fossil fuels at anywhere near the current rate. The trend is clear. More and more of electric production is coming from renewables, whereas oil is oil.

I see no reason why, in the near future, we can't have cars with a 500 mile range that can charge to 400 miles in under 10 minutes. I think the big obstacle is actually going to be reliability, with chargers not maxing out or not working at all. Personally, I wish there was a company like Nio here in the US that would follow their battery subscription model. It's really interesting. They sell their cars for much cheaper than other EVs and you can select their battery subscription service where you go to a station and swap out batteries in under 5 minutes. You get a guaranteed 90% charge and you get like 4 swaps per month for $15. One swapping mechanism takes up just 3 parking spaces of space. My local Lowes/Target center could handle probably 50 of these stations. They can also upgrade the battery as technology advances. Living in med-size city, buying one of these as a commuter car makes so much sense.

 

[s1uggo72]

Coal was the fuel of choice that allowed the industrial revolution and Pax Brittanica.

Then coal became bad and oil was the savior.

Then oil became bad and nuclear was the savior.

Then nuclear became bad and nat gas was the savior.

Now nat gas is bad and windmills, solar and EVs are the savior.


As a 30 year nuclear engineer and employee of major nuclear utlities and engineering companies, nuclear isn't the overall answer. I started working on the two new nuclear units in Georgia in 2008. They might come on line next year - 15 friggin' years. And the company that was building two similar units in South Carolina went bankrupt.

And wait until all the greenies see their electric bills for charging their EV's in the future.

let me ask, we have nuclear powered submarines. I assume the nukes provides both the electricy and the drive propulson underwater. My question is, since that reactor can fit in a sub, why cant we have lots of small nuclear reactors bascially stationed around all the towns in America?

 

[91Joe95]

The transition to EV cars is going to happen.

I love the optimism, but no one can seem to map out or articulate how to make it happen.

 

[91Joe95]

let me ask, we have nuclear powered submarines. I assume the nukes provides both the electricy and the drive propulson underwater. My question is, since that reactor can fit in a sub, why cant we have lots of small nuclear reactors bascially stationed around all the towns in America?

"Environmentalists"

You don't need to go small either. Big both works, and works better, and has fewer failure points.

 

[s1uggo72]

"Environmentalists"

You don't need to go small either. Big both works, and works better, and has fewer failure points.

the reason I thought smaller is, it seems to take so long to get a large one on line. someone noted they started in 2008 and maybe it comes on line this year. I just figured it didnt take that long to fire up a nuke sub. IDK just wondering.

 

[91Joe95]

the reason I thought smaller is, it seems to take so long to get a large one on line. someone noted they started in 2008 and maybe it comes on line this year. I just figured it didnt take that long to fire up a nuke sub. IDK just wondering.

It doesn't take that long to build a big nuke plant, it takes that long to go through all the environmental challenges. Imagine doing that for every small reactor. A nuclear reactor at its heart is little more than a boiler just like any other form of electricity generation.

 

[leinbacker]

It doesn't take that long to build a big nuke plant, it takes that long to go through all the environmental challenges. Imagine doing that for every small reactor. A nuclear reactor at its heart is little more than a boiler just like any other form of electricity generation.

True, the US Navy (well, the shipyards they contract) continuously build them.

 

[leinbacker]

Legisltature could and probably should tax EVs. They use the infrastructure just like every other vehicle. However, like most technology related to the auto industry, higher end vehicles tend to be the first place that new technology is tried and used Everything as simple as auto transmissions, power windoes, NAV systems, etc. But, after a while it becomes commonplace. That said, Ford's F150 EV starts at around $42K. Chevy Bolt is around $40K. NIssan Leaf - $32K. The median price of a new car is around $37,000. There are EV that are available between $40-$50K. (I am looking at MSRP, not the price the dealer will actualy sell the car for - who knows that will be). So, I am not in agremeent that rich people will be ones owning EVs.

Not sure I agree with the comparisons given all vehicles are not the same. I can buy a nicely equip Chevy Equinox for the median price of a new car, $37K. Substantially different than the bolt when one considers loading up the family, the dog, and luggage for a weekend trip to the shore.

 

[psuro]

Not sure I agree with the comparisons given all vehicles are not the same. I can buy a nicely equip Chevy Equinox for the median price of a new car, $37K. Substantially different than the bolt when one considers loading up the family, the dog, and luggage for a weekend trip to the shore.

Yes, not all cars are the same. I was responding to the other posters comment about the costs of EVs And that only rich people could afford them. Relative to the median MSRP of new cars, EVs are not so far out of reach. Beyond that it is all about personal choice and needs.