Definition is when the GDP shrinks in two consecutive quarters. So far, we have only had one quarter of shrinkage but we are sure to be worse next announcement.
Recession
- Thread starter Ralph Cramden
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Q2 is going to be okay. No covid lockdowns and people are spending the hell out of their money. It's all on gas and groceries, but they are spending...
Seriously. Summer travel is going to be crazy this year. I think that holds up Q2 and Q3... Q4 has Christmas, but early 2023 is cooked.
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Atlanta Fed is a little more bearish, but still a long way down to zero. If you hear about a lot of people cancelling vacations in June, that could be a signal.
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Seriously. Summer travel is going to be crazy this year. I think that holds up Q2 and Q3... Q4 has Christmas, but early 2023 is cooked.
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Atlanta Fed is a little more bearish, but still a long way down to zero. If you hear about a lot of people cancelling vacations in June, that could be a signal.
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I hope you right but gas just hit another all time high. Everything is really expensive and people are going to have to cut back. It get's more expensive every day. I mean every day the prices goes up. I think there will be a lot of travel but that will be cut back as well. The vacations will be shorter. Their projection was off on the 1st quarter and I fully expect it to be off this quarter.
I can only vouch for central MS, but restaurants are full, stores are full, roads are full of cars, people are spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave in Subic Bay.
Unemployment is very low & people are spending their cash. That just doesn’t sound like a recession.
We need China to reopen though.
We need China to reopen though.
I would add advertising spending as well. If you start hearing Facebook giving weak guidance over soft advertising markets, it could get bumpy.
Keep hiding your head in the sand. It’s not coming, it’s here. Worst housing market since 2008 but completely different problems. And it’s gonna get worse before it gets better.
If anyone is not working now it is because they don’t want to work. Too many people sitting on their *** not working is not good for the economy.
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Family and I were in Orange Beach last weekend and ate at 2 different places. Both waitresses and many servers had Caribbean accents. The people we were staying with said they were brought in to work because they were having trouble finding workers. I can't figure out how people are surviving with this inflation while not working.
They either have jobs with less stress or the server gig was already a second job and they’re working someplace else now.
Edit to add:
I didn't expect the downvotes but that's what the data shows. Alabama's unemployment rate in March was 2.9 percent (link) so it stands to reason folks are employed and server positions have long been considered pretty stressful positions (link)
So...
Edit to add:
I didn't expect the downvotes but that's what the data shows. Alabama's unemployment rate in March was 2.9 percent (link) so it stands to reason folks are employed and server positions have long been considered pretty stressful positions (link)
So...
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Yes. Yes he is.
I saw it at the store the other day and decided it's the greatest graphic ever created.
I saw it at the store the other day and decided it's the greatest graphic ever created.
They stopped that a long time ago. There’s many things contributing to you having to wait longer for a hamburger. The 2 biggest contributors are: Older generation retiring early because of Covid. $20+ an hour is pretty easy to find with minimal requirements outside the minimum wage food jobs.
People have spent the last 2 years moving up, and changing jobs for better pay.
A large portion of the work force left during the pandemic and it's for a multitude of issues they are not returning. Those handouts by the gov't were temporary but them wanting to stay away are not. People figure out other means to survive and have learned they are fine.
Families with younger children have not all come back going to single earner households on purpose. Some say this is a good thing.
Elderly close to retirement have not come back. I know if I were in my 60's and could manage without working, my *** would not be going back to work, I am 58 and can't manage it just yet but I am getting closer to that time if I got an incentive to leave I would jump at the chance.
There are lots of others that have figured out ways to stay home or spend less. There are lots of people supplementing income online with videos and/or online sites.
Anyone wanting to work and are healthy have a job and that's has not always been the case in my lifetime. If people lived like me all the time the economy would screech to halt. I don't buy **** anymore, I have most of what I need. I did finally replace my iPhone 8 when it died last week.
Agreed. It's like it's fun to ***** about high prices, but not even attempt to curb spending.
Yes, but with diesel at >$5, I'm not sure how long that will last. As the cost of diesel flows into everything, people are going to have to choose what they spend money on. Which means some businesses are going to struggle and everyone with a pulse that wants a job will not be able to get one. And this will be happening as the Fed likely continues to raise interest rates. Then there is the potential for more supply chain disruptions for China.
I'm not predicting a recession. I don't know enough to make a prediction one way or the other. But just intuitively it seems like we are on a path towards one.
I'm 55 and will be eligible to retire Sep of 2023, I may keep on working, but I can afford to retire and having that option will be great. Fortunately, I moved by retirement savings out of the market on 30 Dec 2021, so I haven't taken the hit that many have.
They stopped unemployment, but many families were getting monthly checks as recently as December. I know at least two mothers that have recently gone back to work. They knew they were going to have to but have basically been spending down some savings and utilizing excess cash from the government and enjoying being stay at home mothers for a while. Not sure how common that is, but those two both had pretty decent jobs. If they were going back to the service sector, they would probably figure out between taxes and childcare and just the hassle of not having somebody to manage the household, I have to assume they'd figure out it's not worth it.
ETA: not disagreeing with you, just pointing out some anecdotal evidence that there may still be some small amount of workers that are still out of the workforce because of prior transfer payments from the gov't.
I'm still curious about these jobs. Were there a lot of people just working lower paying jobs because they weren't aware better options were out there? Or have there been enough early retirements along with normal baby boomer retirements that it really has decimated the service sector workforce as openings in other areas became available? Or is there some sort of bubble out there, like in the housing bubble, where you had tons of relatively unqualified people getting jobs in housing/mortgage related industries that then had to go back to their jobs in their prior industry when the bubble burst. I'm not sure what the bubble would be in now though or what jobs would be cut when it bursts.
This economy is very strange, because the inflation is being driven by supply rather than demand. It is virtually uncharted water.
Wages are up, which has contributed to inflation, but with unemployment going way down wages have probably leveled off for now.
OPEC+ is gradually increasing production levels, but some members are having trouble meeting their quotas. This has caused a greater shortfall than anticipated. As production increases, gas prices should stabilize.
I am optimistic on the economy. We are recovering much faster than anticipated.
Wages are up, which has contributed to inflation, but with unemployment going way down wages have probably leveled off for now.
OPEC+ is gradually increasing production levels, but some members are having trouble meeting their quotas. This has caused a greater shortfall than anticipated. As production increases, gas prices should stabilize.
I am optimistic on the economy. We are recovering much faster than anticipated.
Yep. I know a lot of folks who have changed jobs and career focuses.
I'll be eligible to retire in November but plan to continue working for a few more years whether it's for the state like I am now or if a private organization makes me a good enough offer (not actively looking, FYI).
Deflation is rare. Commodity prices fluctuate, but not much else.
I've been buying things on clearance. If you don't need the latest and greatest you can still find good deals.
IDK what will happen in the auto market next. I just bought a used vehicle and paid at least 50% more than I would have 2 years ago. And I felt like I got a great deal.
Oh, folks know that better options are there. The thing is though that people have to be willing to take those options when offered or take the initiative to obtain the background needed.
For example, I know a few servers who've gotten/are pursuing MBAs since that degree is increasingly perceived as necessary.
Still have a ways to go in the labor force participation rate, but it's gone up
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...since the lows of the pandemic. As you can see from the chart it's been declining for sometime prior to covid. It would be nice if it could get back above 65% as the LFPR has a multitude of positive economic benefits.
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...since the lows of the pandemic. As you can see from the chart it's been declining for sometime prior to covid. It would be nice if it could get back above 65% as the LFPR has a multitude of positive economic benefits.
I don't see the supply issues getting much better anytime soon for many items. In my business, it's only been getting worse for the last 12 months.
These are current lead times for Allen Bradley PLC components, which used to be in stock. Now out 5 - 6 months. I can't tell you how many projects our customers have tied up right now because no one can get parts. This is just one example of many - I used it because they publish this every week. At this point, I don't see how it gets back to normal before 2024. We're placing orders today that won't be delivered until January, and those parts are already allocated to jobs. We'll be playing catchup for a long time.
https://www.rockwellautomation.com/...nloads/pdf/Lead-Times-Rockwell-Automation.pdf
Our economy has been artificially propped up since 2008. We had a short rising rate environment that would have ended with or without COVID. Go back and look at the inverted yield curve in 2018. The economy hasn’t been allowed to correct; stimulus, unemployment benefits, supply/demand, monetary policy and many other reasons are now contributing with a hard landing on the horizon. Check consumer credit card numbers YTD. People have spent their cash and can’t stop. Credit card balances have increased substantially. Also, unemployment is misleading. Look at the workforce participation index for a better idea of where we are. It has been moving in the right direction but we are a long way from healthy.
It's coming, credit card rates are going up but the bigger issues ares mortgage rates increasing along with gas prices which will really slow this economy.
Did you wake up from a 10 month slumber to post this ****? What an old and overused narrative.
When the recession comes, you won't OBVIOUSLY see it coming. It will likely come in the form of some collapsing debt house of cards, like it always does. Not sure right now what that will be, not really even seeing little hints, so that tells me the recession isn't imminent. There's nothing just blatantly 'stupid' that jumps out at me, including housing prices (which are fairly easily explained).
Maybe student debt? I don't know, that seems to have calmed down. Seems like salaries are out of control, and a lot of that may be based on government funding trickling down. I remember riding around in 2007 and telling myself, "there's just not enough people for all these houses and subdivisions", and well, that crashed. I don't know that I see anything like that now. Unless it's the whole damn country?
One big influencer that will be gone in 20 years - baby boomers. That could have a very significant effect. I think they are driving much of this.
Maybe student debt? I don't know, that seems to have calmed down. Seems like salaries are out of control, and a lot of that may be based on government funding trickling down. I remember riding around in 2007 and telling myself, "there's just not enough people for all these houses and subdivisions", and well, that crashed. I don't know that I see anything like that now. Unless it's the whole damn country?
One big influencer that will be gone in 20 years - baby boomers. That could have a very significant effect. I think they are driving much of this.
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