Recession

[archdog]

I am 180 degrees opposite. I see no recovery at all as long as inflation, especially fossil fuel prices, remain increasing at light speed. And make NO mistake, this is Biden's economy and coming recession. He started it on Day 1 he killed the Keystone pipeline. We were totally energy independent under Trump. Now letting OPEC put the squeeze to us again in ridiculous. This is Jimmy Carter Part 2; that SOB is going to totally tank the country; believe me, it's coming.

Domestic production has been damn near the peak for a while now. We are exactly where we were in Nov 2018. The problem is other factors.

Keystone had not jack **** to do with any of it.

Under Trump we imported oil from everyone, just like today. Production was up, but the trend of increased production started in August 2012. Under Trump we imported 500k barrels a day from Saudi Arabia average. Another million per day from other countries.

Like always, oil production is immediately halted, the second a republican is defeated. No policy changes, but just because.

Guess what though. The economy is going to take a hit. The money passed into the economy, under Trump's administration, will slow down in about 2 years. Until then, and I cannot stress this enough, the cost of everything is going to be expensive, due 100% to the lack of supply. Everyday China is closed for business it sets our country back maybe a week. The backlog alone is going to 17 us. There are plenty of sectors of industry that are directly taking advantage of the situation. Wood, steel, and concrete being the crux. There are zero reasons why the cost should be as high as it is, but I **** you not you could not build a house cheaper than 200/sf right this second. Commercial buildings are bidding at over 400/sf that should be about 225.

That is not on Biden or Trump. That is good old fashion greed on the suppliers and has been this way since the second the pandemic happened.

I will add, money pumped into our economy by Biden and Trump kept this country afloat when it was absolutely needed. The alternative to that would have been no action, and the consequences of no action could have been catastrophic. And all of these facts came from the US Crude Oil Production macrotrends and they are not up for debate. All construction related information is coming straight from me, who designs buildings for a living.

 

[mcdawg22]

I am 180 degrees opposite. I see no recovery at all as long as inflation, especially fossil fuel prices, remain increasing at light speed. And make NO mistake, this is Biden's economy and coming recession. He started it on Day 1 he killed the Keystone pipeline. We were totally energy independent under Trump. Now letting OPEC put the squeeze to us again in ridiculous. This is Jimmy Carter Part 2; that SOB is going to totally tank the country; believe me, it's coming.

Did you get these talking points from Nextdoor or Facebook? Sit this one out we are having a rational economics discussion.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

It's likely a red wave in November no matter what, but if this admin makes barbers and truckers to pay off the loans of gender studies' majors, look out.

I just don't know, the last presidential election was a strange one (certainly not the first). The incumbent was wildly successful, but an ego-manic and his own worst enemy, the challenger never campaigned and displayed an obviously diminishing cognitive state. I'm not necessarily advocating that tomfoolery was in play during the election, but I'm not advocating it wasn't either, there were enough irregularities to make one second guess the process. Elections often come down to a few precincts in a few states, especially the POTUS and Senate.

 

[Dawgzilla]

I said fossil fuel on purpose. Natural gas is part of the conversation. True we produce a lot. But we can produce a helluva lot more. The natural gas production is having a huge impact on fertilizer prices too.

Natural gas production in the US is also at an all time high. Production growth is waning, though, because we do not have the pipeline capacity to transport much more.

Like oil, natural gas is a world commodity. Even though the US leads the world in both oil and gas production, that is not enough to exert control on world prices. The shortages in Europe are driving up prices.

 

[57stratdawg]

The party out of power certainly has the advantage in the midterms. I think the sitting President's party has only gained seats in the House 3 times since 1900. That's generally because voters don't really like change - even when it's the change they've voted for. In basically every other instance in the last century - the party in power has been responsible for the changes.

It will be interesting to see how the voters respond to the MASSIVE changes the Conservative Supreme Court might bring. I expect a red leaning environment, don't get me wrong, but there are going to be alot of very visible Supreme Court headlines over the next 6 months.

 

[thatsbaseball]

You seem to have a better grasp of what's going on than Biden...what's up with that ?

 

[blacklistedbully]

Unemployment is very low & people are spending their cash. That just doesn’t sound like a recession.

We need China to reopen though.

The Democrats love to not count the people who have stopped even looking for a job, or have run out of benefits. Those folks just drop out of the equation, making the official UE rate look much better than it really is.