SEC to stay at 16 teams

18IsTheMan

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Jan 19, 2022
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Better than nothing.

If true, the ACC is breathing a sigh of relief. Hopefully this will settle things down as it had great potential to spiral out out control.

Phil Knight was cold calling conferences trying to find a spot for Oregon.
 

Harvard Gamecock

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It is not over just because of a media statement.
 
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HillsToSea

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I don't really get what's in it for one conference to try destroying another.
I don’t either. Don’t see fans of those other conferences staying interested if they know their teams don’t have even a small chance at the playoffs or even a good bowl
 

Uscg1984

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I don't really get what's in it for one conference to try destroying another.
Theoretically, there has to be a finite amount of TV dollars out there for college football, whether it is split between 70 P5 teams or 48. If the 48 are trying to weed out the other 22 to increase their shares of those dollars, it would be a pretty cut-throat move for a bunch of non-profit academic institutions. It would rival anything the titans of industry ever attempted.
 
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BattleshipTexas

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Theoretically, there has to be a finite amount of TV dollars out there for college football, ...
Well no, that is provably wrong. Take this coming season's schedule and TV dollars. If I promise to have Texas drop the UTSA game few will watch and Georgia drop its weakest game and the two, Georgia and Texas, play together, you don't think ESPN or Fox Sports would pony up extra "new" money to make that happen? Because that would get a lot of viewers and advertisers see that and think "we sell a lot of pickup trucks in those two states" and bid a lot for the commercials. All new money. There is clearly not a finite amount of TV dollars. You can arrange the schedule to get more TV money by making more attractive games. Dropping games no one wants to watch in favor of interesting matchups magnifies the TV money. That is part of what is happening now and it isn't just being driven by the conferences, it is being driven by the TV networks.
 

BattleshipTexas

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I was thinking the same. Imho, at most this puts it off a year or two. At least it provides cover while negotiations go on.
I think the SEC looked at this, hoping to poach the best ACC teams, but the SEC lawyers looked at the ACC grant of rights and said it was ironclad. Not gonna happen anytime soon. Thus the announcement.
 

Yard_Pimps

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I think the SEC looked at this, hoping to poach the best ACC teams, but the SEC lawyers looked at the ACC grant of rights and said it was ironclad. Not gonna happen anytime soon. Thus the announcement.
No one knows if there is an out because each contract contains competitive revenue clause but we don’t know what they say. If that’s true seems one would have an out if the acc pay is not competitive with the sec and big ten.
 

KingWard

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Well no, that is provably wrong. Take this coming season's schedule and TV dollars. If I promise to have Texas drop the UTSA game few will watch and Georgia drop its weakest game and the two, Georgia and Texas, play together, you don't think ESPN or Fox Sports would pony up extra "new" money to make that happen? Because that would get a lot of viewers and advertisers see that and think "we sell a lot of pickup trucks in those two states" and bid a lot for the commercials. All new money. There is clearly not a finite amount of TV dollars. You can arrange the schedule to get more TV money by making more attractive games. Dropping games no one wants to watch in favor of interesting matchups magnifies the TV money. That is part of what is happening now and it isn't just being driven by the conferences, it is being driven by the TV networks.
If there is a finite amount, it's definitely well above of what has been realized or foreseen. If more is needed or possible, I suspect we'll see dramatic expansion moves again.
 

Uscg1984

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Well no, that is provably wrong. Take this coming season's schedule and TV dollars. If I promise to have Texas drop the UTSA game few will watch and Georgia drop its weakest game and the two, Georgia and Texas, play together, you don't think ESPN or Fox Sports would pony up extra "new" money to make that happen? Because that would get a lot of viewers and advertisers see that and think "we sell a lot of pickup trucks in those two states" and bid a lot for the commercials. All new money. There is clearly not a finite amount of TV dollars. You can arrange the schedule to get more TV money by making more attractive games. Dropping games no one wants to watch in favor of interesting matchups magnifies the TV money. That is part of what is happening now and it isn't just being driven by the conferences, it is being driven by the TV networks.
Not sure that proved anything about a finite amount of dollars other than that we haven't reached it yet. Then, let's just form one 2-team conference and let Texas and Georgia play each other ever week. Sooner or later, the model falls apart because there are too many people who don't have a dog in the FBS fight any more.

20 years from now, will the arrangement you described mean that UTSA fans care more about college football or less? Same question would apply to fanbases of K-State, NC-State, Utah, Washington State, WVU, or any other current P5 team that is potentially left on the outside looking in. One of the primary reasons the whole nation tunes in to watch two top-10 college football teams play is because (practically) EVERYBDOY has an FBS team they pull for. It's easy to eliminate the UTSAs, Southern Misses, and Akrons from the schedule and see the TV money go up, but when you create a bunch of have-nots from current haves, you end up casting out a significant portion of college football fans.

I'm not saying you're wrong about the rationale of the folks brokering these deals: I just think it's a recipe for long-term decline for the sake of short-term profits. But either way, ESPN will be fine because they are going to make money showing whatever sport is hot 20 years from now.
 

HillsToSea

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Not sure that proved anything about a finite amount of dollars other than that we haven't reached it yet. Then, let's just form one 2-team conference and let Texas and Georgia play each other ever week. Sooner or later, the model falls apart because there are too many people who don't have a dog in the FBS fight any more.

20 years from now, will the arrangement you described mean that UTSA fans care more about college football or less? Same question would apply to fanbases of K-State, NC-State, Utah, Washington State, WVU, or any other current P5 team that is potentially left on the outside looking in. One of the primary reasons the whole nation tunes in to watch two top-10 college football teams play is because (practically) EVERYBDOY has an FBS team they pull for. It's easy to eliminate the UTSAs, Southern Misses, and Akrons from the schedule and see the TV money go up, but when you create a bunch of have-nots from current haves, you end up casting out a significant portion of college football fans.

I'm not saying you're wrong about the rationale of the folks brokering these deals: I just think it's a recipe for long-term decline for the sake of short-term profits. But either way, ESPN will be fine because they are going to make money showing whatever sport is hot 20 years from now.
Too many people who don’t have a dog in the FBS fight is spot on imo. No one seems to be addressing this. I see two mega conferences being detrimental to the future of college football
 

BattleshipTexas

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No one knows if there is an out because each contract contains competitive revenue clause but we don’t know what they say. If that’s true seems one would have an out if the acc pay is not competitive with the sec and big ten.
The people who seem to know don't act like there is much hope for NC, FSU or Clemson leaving the ACC. I am not sure why you think the ACC Grant of Rights has that clause. The Big 12 Grant of Rights sure didn't or OU and Texas would be playing in the SEC in 2022. I assure you Texas has explored every legal avenue to get out of the Big 12 Grant of Rights now.
 

Yard_Pimps

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The people who seem to know don't act like there is much hope for NC, FSU or Clemson leaving the ACC. I am not sure why you think the ACC Grant of Rights has that clause. The Big 12 Grant of Rights sure didn't or OU and Texas would be playing in the SEC in 2022. I assure you Texas has explored every legal avenue to get out of the Big 12 Grant of Rights now.
I’m not sure what media outlets you are looking at but most of the ones I see say Clemson and ND are at the top of the demand list. But you must say the same thing about ND because they are bound by the same grant of rights. Finally just because the big 12 didn’t have clauses doesn’t mean other contracts don’t.
 

BattleshipTexas

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I’m not sure what media outlets you are looking at but most of the ones I see say Clemson and ND are at the top of the demand list. But you must say the same thing about ND because they are bound by the same grant of rights. Finally just because the big 12 didn’t have clauses doesn’t mean other contracts don’t.
Notre Dame is not bound by the ACC Grant of Rights in the same way as the other schools. Its TV deal with the ACC has a sizable exit fee, but it is not locked in for football until 2035 like FSU and Clemson. The Irish might be the No. 1 brand in college sports. That's why NBC is paying it $15 million to show its home games.

"There's a reason the Notre Dame brand avoided the doorway of college football's realignment party, so far. Instead Notre Dame maintains its status as an independent with noticeable patience. The Fighting Irish TV deal with the ACC includes a sizable exit fee, but Notre Dame would be free of paying the Grant of Rights charge for football, according to ESPN's David Hale."


https://247sports.com/Article/Expla...nt-dilemma-ACC-Grant-of-Rights-fee-189990208/
 

KingWard

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Notre Dame is not bound by the ACC Grant of Rights in the same way as the other schools. Its TV deal with the ACC has a sizable exit fee, but it is not locked in for football until 2035 like FSU and Clemson. The Irish might be the No. 1 brand in college sports. That's why NBC is paying it $15 million to show its home games.

"There's a reason the Notre Dame brand avoided the doorway of college football's realignment party, so far. Instead Notre Dame maintains its status as an independent with noticeable patience. The Fighting Irish TV deal with the ACC includes a sizable exit fee, but Notre Dame would be free of paying the Grant of Rights charge for football, according to ESPN's David Hale."


https://247sports.com/Article/Expla...nt-dilemma-ACC-Grant-of-Rights-fee-189990208/
Good info.
 

KingWard

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Not surprised. Does anyone think that the contract lawyers who put together the ACC GOR were recent law school graduates? I suspect the contract lawyers for the ACC were bald, with gray hair and had been around the block numerous times.
It's probably for the best anyway. But if the B1G moves beyond 16 and garners more cash thereby, the SEC will have to follow suit if there's money to be gained. The B1G has made a bold but ungainly expansion. I can't see them not giving those western teams some company if they possibly can.
 
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Rogue Cock

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It's probably for the best anyway. But if the B1G moves beyond 16 and garners more cash thereby, the SEC will have to follow suit if there's money to be gained. The B1G has made a bold but ungainly expansion. I can't see them not giving those western teams some company if they possibly can.
Oregon has already been mentioned. Could see Washington and Colorado also.....and Stanford and Cal for good measure, especially if that helps them get Notre Dame. Could also give Penn State and Maryland company by venturing into Virginia and NC. I can see the SEC expanding further west also...too much population growth to ignore at this point.
 
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Prestonyte

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Oregon has already been mentioned. Could see Washington and Colorado also.....and Stanford and Cal for good measure, especially if that helps them get Notre Dame. Could also give Penn State and Maryland company by venturing into Virginia and NC. I can see the SEC expanding further west also...too much population growth to ingnore at this point.
I still like the SEC moving west rather than north, if it happens, for AZ, Stanford, Cal, or OR
 

Spurman54

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Not surprised. Does anyone think that the contract lawyers who put together the ACC GOR were recent law school graduates? I suspect the contract lawyers for the ACC were bald, with gray hair and had been around the block numerous times.
Everything you say is true. Not one President of an SEC school is going to agree to pay $460 million for any school and that includes Notre Dame. The SEC does not need any more teams. 16 is good. Those fools at Moo U had a chance to leave the ACC in 1972 and then they did a Benedict Arnold on USC. Isn't it funny how Karma works. Yes it took a long time but Karma showed her fact to those stupid ignorant Hill Runners at Clemson.
 

gamecock stock

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The Big 10 brought in Sou. Cal and UCLA as a response to the SEC bringing in Texas and Oklahoma. The SEC had its sights on those two, years and years ago. It's a game of chess. Next move is the SEC??????? The only move I see for the SEC is to grab a couple of ACC teams for contiguous boundaries and travel cost reasons (really, really believe that would be in the states of North Carolina and Virginia). By the time that happens though, some on this thread will have probably met their demise.
 
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Prestonyte

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The Big 10 brought in Sou. Cal and UCLA as a response to the SEC bringing in Texas and Oklahoma. The SEC had its sights on those two, years and years ago. It's a game of chess. Next move is the SEC??????? The only move I see for the SEC is to grab a couple of ACC teams for contiguous boundaries and travel cost reasons (really, really believe that would be in the states of North Carolina and Virginia). By the time that happens though, some on this thread will have probably met their demise.
Don't think contiguous boundaries and travel costs is a driving factor (i.e. SoCal & UCLA to Big 10). TV money and markets is where the action is and when the SEC makes the move (hopefully not near future) it will be west to AZ, CA, OR, WA and not north
 

gamecock stock

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Don't think contiguous boundaries and travel costs is a driving factor (i.e. SoCal & UCLA to Big 10). TV money and markets is where the action is and when the SEC makes the move (hopefully not near future) it will be west to AZ, CA, OR, WA and not north
I don't believe it matters anyway because if you look at history, the SEC takes its time to expand. They brought in Carolina and Arkansas in 1990. It wasn't until 2011 that the SEC brought in Texas A&M and Missouri. Then they waited another 10 years to expand further with Texas and Oklahoma.

History, to me, has always been a guide to the future, in everything. I suspect that expansion is on the backburner now, for the SEC. History shows that the SEC moves incrementally. The SEC knows who their targets are for further expansion. But, the SEC has always been patient. They can afford to be so. in order to bring in teams on their terms. As I said elsewhere, I believe there will be a lot of folks on this thread who will be dead and buried before we see further expansion, Is that a guarantee? Of course not. We don't know what we don't know. Very few do.
 
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Lurker123

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Don't think contiguous boundaries and travel costs is a driving factor (i.e. SoCal & UCLA to Big 10). TV money and markets is where the action is and when the SEC makes the move (hopefully not near future) it will be west to AZ, CA, OR, WA and not north

I think, lile most people, we're waiting to see what ND does when they renegotiate.
 
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