Severe Threat Looming?

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Starting to get some interesting signals for next Thursday. It is definitely looking likely a potent storm system moves through, but not sure how far north the unstable air will make it. Last couple runs the GFS is keeping the unstable air basically confined south of I-20 and west of 55, but this far out that could change dramatically. A strong high pressure is expected to develop in the Atlantic around Bermuda and the clockwise flow will be bringing moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Just how much and how far north remains to be seen. Still way too early to even start talking about what types of severe weather and how strong and widespread. Just keep in the back of your head could be some rough weather somewhere in the state late next week.

 

[Xenomorph]

70 degrees before opening day. Then freezing… sounds about right.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Starting to get some interesting signals for next Thursday. It is definitely looking likely a potent storm system moves through, but not sure how far north the unstable air will make it. Last couple runs the GFS is keeping the unstable air basically confined south of I-20 and west of 55, but this far out that could change dramatically. A strong high pressure is expected to develop in the Atlantic around Bermuda and the clockwise flow will be bringing moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Just how much and how far north remains to be seen. Still way too early to even start talking about what types of severe weather and how strong and widespread. Just keep in the back of your head could be some rough weather somewhere in the state late next week.

I've been hearing some rumblings to. Guys in the Weather community have been suggesting a severe outbreak next week but are waiting for more models to show it. They do say this pretty certain it'll be a heavy rain event

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

And the SPC has issued a Day 7 threat area. I won't say this is rare, but I will say it's pretty uncommon. They don't often issue a threat area this far out.

 

[Baddmann]

Any update?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Any update?

Severe threat looks likely. Shaping up to be what's called a low CAPE/high Shear set up. These are systems where the wind shear is off the charts but instability is lacking. These often times produce storms that are very low topped and a lot of times have very limited, or no, lightning. However, due to the high shear values tornadoes and straight line winds are still possible. The morning and afternoon model runs weren't quite as impressive as the overnight runs. Have to see if that's a trend or a one off. But until more is known expect a line of severe storms moving across the state starting in the morning and hitting east MS early afternoon during peak heating. That could cause some intensification over that area.

 

[SyonaraStanz]

What’s the latest on this? Any idea when it’ll hit Memphis?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

What’s the latest on this? Any idea when it’ll hit Memphis?

Latest is my post from last night. Not much has changed. Models this morning are trying show a more discrete supercell event and not so much a squall line. Timing for Memphis probably mid morning through early afternoon. Been some hints the system may be slowing down some.

 

[thatsbaseball]

We don't particularly need storms but it's gotten damn dry in some areas

 

[dorndawg]

We don't particularly need storms but it's gotten damn dry in some areas

Agree and hope we don't have one of those late winter/early springs where we get 6 month's worth of rain in a handful of weeks.

 

[Cooterpoot]

I was expecting a Bracky take on the basketball hires.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

The SPC has upgraded most of MS to an enhanced severe threat tomorrow for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes...some possibly strong. Below is the text from the SPC discussion as well as the tornado threat graphic. The yellow shading means a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point. The black hatched area means a 10% chance that any of those tornadoes could be EF2 or stronger.

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]FARTHER SOUTH, GREATER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME AT LEAST NEUTRAL, AND THEREFORE GREATER
CERTAINTY OF SURFACE- OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXISTS -- BOTH
NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, AND ALSO WITH ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION-DRIVEN BANDS OF CONVECTION IN THE FREE WARM SECTOR. AS
NOTED ABOVE, VERY STRONG SHEAR -- WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 TO 60 KT INCREASING TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT
70 TO 90 KT AT MID LEVELS -- IS SUGGESTIVE OF SUPERCELLS, AND
ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL -- AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING -- TORNADOES. AS SUCH, AN UPGRADE TO
ENHANCED RISK IS BEING INTRODUCED, CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.[/FONT]

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Between this and what next week is looking like we are going to get some good rains.