Severe Threat Wednesday

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Main threat looks to be damaging wind gusts, but a few tornadoes will be possible. Storm mode looks to linear and bowing segments, but a few warm sector discrete supercells will be possible and they will contain your biggest tornado threat. Timing will be afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Overall, this isn't looking like an especially high end event, but if your house is in the area that gets impacted then it's high end enough.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Graphic updated to show upgrade to enhanced risk.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Hugh it seems like we are developing a stormy pattern early this year. Are things set up for this same pattern to continue through the foreseeable months ahead ?

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

I live on the coast and it seems the timing keeps getting pushed back. Is the system slowing or is the timing affected by it pushing further north?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Hugh it seems like we are developing a stormy pattern early this year. Are things set up for this same pattern to continue through the foreseeable months ahead ?

Some of the long range models are hinting at a very active rest of February, but I always take that with a huge grain of salt as long term weather patterns are next to impossible to nail down. That being said, another opportunity may exist early next week with the approach of our next storm system. It will be conditional on moisture return after a cold front moves through over the weekend.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

I live on the coast and it seems the timing keeps getting pushed back. Is the system slowing or is the timing affected by it pushing further north?

It may be slowing some, but not a whole lot.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Tornado threat and NWS timing graphics.