Shmuley - what do you usually say? Long 2 years?...

[horshack.sixpack]

The street knows. The street doesn’t think much of the hire.

I get strong Moorhead vibes, but I hope I'm completely wrong. I had a guy who worked for me once who was from podunkville, MS (name redacted to avoid SPS ire) and he sounded like it. However, he was the best in the industry at his job that i ever saw. That includes people from some very large international corporations. So maybe, just maybe...

 

[dogeater]

So, when I say "toss up", I don't mean a Vegas toss-up. I mean more of a "functional" toss-up, meaning that mid way through the 4th quarter, either team has a functional chance of winning the game and, for me, in college football with the first down clock stop, that's a differential of 2 scores or less. I guess instead of 'toss up', I should use a phrase like "I believe we'll be competitive in those games with a chance to win".

A&M has always had more talent than we have and we've beaten them as much as they've beaten us and that was with a head coach that won a national championship. I don't believe Elko is a proven head coach after 2 seasons at Duke. They were 7-5 this year with a Charmin soft schedule. I'm not saying we'll beat them, but I think we have a chance to.

Florida will probably be favored against us, but they're always favored against us. I don't think there's some big jump between a 5-7 team and 7-5 team outside bowl eligibility. Again, this isn't a prediction that we win that game; it's just not a foregone conclusion that we'll lose, like for instance Georgia.

Going back to the Mullen era, there are a lot of years where State and Ole Miss are neck and neck, but I would say that the following Egg Bowl teams beat better opponents:
2009 Mississippi State
2012 Ole Miss
2014 Ole Miss
2017 Ole Miss
2022 Mississippi State

The point differentials in that time have been:
State +14
State +8
State +28
Ole Miss +17
State +7
Ole Miss +14
Ole Miss +9
State +35
Ole Miss +3
State +32
State +1
Ole Miss +7
Ole Miss +10
State +2
Ole Miss +10

So, since 2009, there have been:
6 single score games
5 two score games
4 three+ score games (3 by State, 1 by Ole Miss)

More often than not, the Egg Bowl is winnable by either team going into the 4th quarter. That's not a Vegas betting toss-up, but it's a "functional" toss-up. The Egg Bowl is competitive more often than it isn't.

"functional toss up" a new term of art.

 

[Seinfeld]

Thanks ******* **

 

[Perd Hapley]

2009 - Genuine upset
2012 - State finished only 1 game ahead of Miss in both overall and converence record. Game was at Oxford. Not really an upset
2014 - State finished only 1 game ahead of Miss in both overall and converence record. Game was at Oxford. Not really an upset
2017 - Genuine upset
2022 (I assume that's what you mean) - State finished with more wins than Miss overall, both 4-4 conference. Not really an upset

So that's 2 real upsets in the last 15 years. If the teams are evenly matched, anything can happen. But there's not many big upsets in this series.

I don’t really consider 2009 to be a “genuine upset” either. Records be damned, we had 10 NFL draft picks in our 2-deep, played the toughest schedule in the country, and finally started running the offense and personnel that we should have been running for most of the season in that game. That was a team that should have won about 7 games.

Generally agree with your sentiment, however. When one team is clearly better, that team almost always wins (notable exception 2017). When they are roughly even, the home team usually wins (notable exceptions being 2015 and 2022). Far more often than not, they are roughly even.