I believe CFB will hit a point of diminishing profits before this happens. Right now I watch Mississippi State, then other SEC schools and I would pay to watch them if it came to that. I don't care about Big 10, Big 12, or any others and wouldn't pay for it. If the top 25 broke away and only played each other then I'd watch State and the NFL and screw the rest of CFB.
The next round of realignment is where we get left out
- Thread starter 615dawg
- Start date
I will probably be dead by then so y’all can worry about it.
At some point you need enough teams to create the inventory required to command the big dollars. If it gets cut to 24, there aren't enough teams to play enough games.
The only way the top tier gets cut below 48-60 is there aren't that many schools that want to fund the program to the level required to be in the pseudo professional football business when the players are employees, there's a CBA in place, and they're getting a cut of the TV revenue, etc.
Go back in time to a Washington State message board when Leach had them winning 11 games a year and tell them that within a decade they, a founding member of the Pacific 8, will be in the Mountain West.
it will look a lot like this thread. This current realignment needs to be a complete failure because the next step is a 24-32 team super conference.
TV executives run college football now.
This is OT, but I think it would be really cool to see a relegation concept like they have in the big soccer leagues. No chance in hell it happens, but would make things very interesting.
Its actually easier with 24. Let me spell it out.
South
-----
Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Tennessee
Florida
Texas A&M
West
------
USC
UCLA
Washington
Oregon
Texas
Oklahoma
Midwest
------
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Notre Dame
Nebraska
East
------
Clemson
Penn State
Florida State
Virginia
North Carolina
UCF
Everyone plays the other 5 in their division and rotates 2 from each of the other divisions. A 12th game will be allowed to be played against a non-Power team.
Alabama's schedule could look like this:
Auburn (non-power game)
Georgia
LSU
Tennessee
Florida
Texas A&M
USC
Texas
Ohio State
Michigan
Clemson
Penn State
No way they don't get 80 million views in a season. Might even crack 100 million. For comparison, Alabama had 60 million viewers last year. Ohio State led the nation with just under 70 million. We had 12 million. Michigan State - Michigan and Tennessee-Georgia both had over 13 million views for one game. We had 12 million in the entire season. Ole Miss had 21 million with practically the same schedule. Our Pac 12 after dark game hurt us a little. From 2015-19 we averaged 15.7 million. That's 29th in that metric. Like I said above, we are in the discussion in a 32 team league, probably in if its 40 (although we were under 10 million viewers in 2021, 43rd)
That's just me stabbing at the 24. TCU, Maryland, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State were all in the top 25 for most views last year. TCU was probably an outlier last year.
Oh, and schools like Southern Miss? 192,000 people watched a USM game last year in an entire season - with all new opponents and excitement around the Sun Belt.
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I agree it will be a decade or more before this happens. However I Think 615 is right on in that IF the SEC dissolves, it will be because the blue bloods made back room deals directly with the networks. Because as he said, why make $60-70 million a year when you can double that.
I really think that is where college football will be by 2040... maybe 2050. About 30-40 schools in a new league to themselves. Oh.... and it will work. 17 million people watched MIchigan v OHSt this year. 22 million watched the semi finals. Over 6million watched Alabama/Auburn. ....and so on. We, State fans may lose interest, but enough people will still watch.
I really think that is where college football will be by 2040... maybe 2050. About 30-40 schools in a new league to themselves. Oh.... and it will work. 17 million people watched MIchigan v OHSt this year. 22 million watched the semi finals. Over 6million watched Alabama/Auburn. ....and so on. We, State fans may lose interest, but enough people will still watch.
Of course it was about money. That means when it comes to college athletics, FOOTBALL. Football is the money maker that supports all the rest of it.
And I am not trying to be doom and gloom. I am a very analytical, logical person. I always ask why something is happening. I'm probably a moron to most of you but there are numbers that should worry us if this is successful for the networks.
Conference realignment is all about money. The questions being asked now are why do you have schools like USC and UCLA making $30 million when Northwestern and Purdue are making $90 million? Why is Florida State making $40 million and Vanderbilt is getting $70 million. Those answers are leading to this round of conference realignment.
The next question is going to be Ohio State and Alabama asking why they are getting the same amount as Indiana and Mississippi State when they are getting more views in one week than those schools are getting in an entire season.
Dark, dark times ahead.
Conference realignment is all about money. The questions being asked now are why do you have schools like USC and UCLA making $30 million when Northwestern and Purdue are making $90 million? Why is Florida State making $40 million and Vanderbilt is getting $70 million. Those answers are leading to this round of conference realignment.
The next question is going to be Ohio State and Alabama asking why they are getting the same amount as Indiana and Mississippi State when they are getting more views in one week than those schools are getting in an entire season.
Dark, dark times ahead.
The Saudi's will be running college football in five years and every game will be on a PPV platform.
It's all being negotiated as we type.
It's all being negotiated as we type.
That Florida State deal is going to be interesting to watch. If that is successful it might not take a decade.
In 20 years I will be closing in on 80. Football will probably be the least of my worries if I am still alive.
There’s no way the number is 24. If, IF it is, we’ll be in a second league that still garners revenue and is very competitive.
All we have to do is show the TV executives THE BEST COLLEGE BASEBALL STADIUM IN WORLD. They will be so impressed that we’ll be fine. Who cares about tv viewers for football. Look at that baseball stadium
PROBLEM SOLVED.
PROBLEM SOLVED.
I mean… I guess my first reaction is “so?”
There is absolutely nothing we can do about it if/when the super league ever happens and life is just too 17ing short to worry about it until it happens.
I won’t start suddenly loving State less if they’re no longer in a power conference.
There is absolutely nothing we can do about it if/when the super league ever happens and life is just too 17ing short to worry about it until it happens.
I won’t start suddenly loving State less if they’re no longer in a power conference.
I agree. Who is going to watch a league of 24 “College” teams. Most would rather just watch NFL.
Uh, they had one 11 win season and followed it up with a losing season. In Mike's 8 seasons there, they had 4 winning seasons and 4 losing seasons.
Comparing the Pac 12 to the SEC is like comparing a Ford Pinto to a Range Rover.
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No way it's a smaller number of teams than the NFL at 32. The schedule and footprint doesn't make sense.
I think it's at least 40, and probably closer to 60 teams after the next round.
One thing I don’t understand about this line of thinking is why people think college football is going to become more exclusive. If anything, the power 5 has grown and become more inclusive. Just off the top of my head I can think of Utah, TCU, Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, that have moved from independent or non power conferences in the last decade or so (Utah and tcu may have been slighter longer than a decade). It obviously looks questionable right now for Washington state, Oregon state, Stanford and Cal but I’m willing to let it play out before I freak out.
I really think TV execs would be greatly overestimating the ratings if you exclude half the schools. High dollar College sports is uniquely American, and the only reason so many watch is out of loyalty to their own school, and the fact that 100+ schools are all in the same ‘league’ or ‘level’. If MSU is relegated down, I will rarely if ever watch the 32 super teams. In my mind it will become the same as Premier League, NHL, XFL, etc. Things I put on if nothing else is on, but since I don’t have a local or favorite team will rarely ever watch and definitely don’t care strongly about. The 70+ ‘non-super’ teams add up to a lot of eyeballs.
Same. But if all this does happen it won't rock my world. I'm already close to not watching college football for a number of reasons.
I swear some of our fans just constantly look for reasons to **** on us.
We’re in a great spot and will be for a long time. Sit back and relax
Another factor,, put those 24 ‘super-teams’ into a league that only plays each other,, and someone will have to finish last and become the league’s New York Jets. Are they going to maintain the same ratings and prestige after going 2-10 for a decade straight? They won’t have the draft or salary caps to maintain balance like the NFL.
TV executives don't care.
Presidents and BOR that will be making these decisions don't care.
Yes, you are going to have a handful of programs that occupy the cellar. When the school cashes the $150 MM+ check every year, they won't care that the fans miss the old days.
The key is going to be whether the conferences can stay relevant and the networks continue negotiating with them instead of going directly to the schools a la Notre Dame. The SEC will protect us. Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Florida will pay us lip service as they sign their mega contracts.
We had 12 million views in a season where we played Alabama and Georgia and had an exclusive Thanksgiving night matchup. You take those three games out and we had 2.8 million views in our remaining 9 games (331,000 per game). We are not attractive to a system where we are headed.
If that's 24 - no chance. Teams like Auburn and Nebraska are on the fence.
If its 32 - maybe, although Ole Miss is more attractive and they likely won't take two MS teams.
If its 40 - we're probably on the right side of the bubble but its not certain.
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Exactly. And those 40-60 teams are going to be in the SEC and the Big 10. And we'll be in the SEC group, along with the other 15 current SEC members.
Mississippi State is gonna have to act like the U.S. Women's National Soccer Team. We want equal pay. We're a charter member after all.
More like 4 decades, IF it continues like it is right now. But it won't.
And you think this thing can't collapse? Well, an entire generation of kids are growing up not really caring about sports (on the whole). Not sure if you've noticed but nationally, youth sports participation is way down (except for golf). That means less fans. The absolute LAST place fans will be lost is the top level of professionals (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, EPL). College will be the true loser. Take into account the idea that higher ed in general is on shaky ground, and the enrollment cliff. I mean, if you want to talk about negativity, a more realistic outlook is that schools themselves hit a rocky patch. Not that MSU gets left out of a super conference.
OP - just a bad take overall, not supported by much evidence. It happens, but geez, stop digging (or trolling, whatever it is you're truly doing). I'm analytical/logical too, but I'm not seeing this. We are in a season of rapid change, it won't stay that way. Live long enough you'll see this.
What always gets forgotten amongst the people pushing for the big superconference is that someone's got to lose the games. You can take the 24 biggest names in football and put them together and a bunch of teams that aren't used to losing are going to lose and lose big, and they're going to regret everything.
It seems like risking the long term future of college football, to maximize short term gain. The reason those programs have high ratings and so many ‘sidewalk alums’ is decades of winning 9+ games per year in the current system. Turn half the schools into perennial loser programs, and the TV execs might not get the ratings they expected.
I agree. I’ve always been more of an NFL fan than college football. I watch college football and the sec because of MSU. I’ll casually tune into other sec games not involving MSU but rarely am I going to watch Clemson vs North Carolina or something like that. Hell I don’t even really watch Ohio state vs Michigan unless I can’t find something else to do. But I’ll sit down and watch any NFL game.
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