The playoff committee is slowly losing me

[missouridawg]

Ranking these teams is certainly no easy task. But, occasionally, data points fall right into your lap to help you navigate the rough seas of the eye test.

Ranking Michigan ahead of Michigan State has got to be the dumbest 17ing thing I think they could ever do. You have the data point you need, right in front of you, to help separate those two teams in the standings… and you completely ignore it.

For as long as teams are in the same division, with the same record, and a head to head data point…. You simply cannot justify placing the loser of the head to head above the winner. There is no more egregious example of bias than doing something like this.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

But at this point does it really matter? I totally get what you’re saying but these issues are going to get worked out in the next couple of weeks because one of them or both of them are going to lose.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

I don’t understand Texas A&M being ranked that high. Of the teams still ranked they only beat bama. Should be behind Upig.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

The weekly ratings are really dumb. Just meet once after the season and pick the 4 teams and while that decision could have some controversy depending on the year, they wouldn't be as much on the hook.

 

[TimberBeast]

The 4 team playoff was put together by the big 10 and pac 1 to TRY to make sure each year they each had a team in those 4. This all started when bama and LSU played in the championship.

 

[paindonthurt]

This is what I never get. People get their Jimmy’s in a wad but it always works itself out.

 

[missouridawg]

But at this point does it really matter? I totally get what you’re saying but these issues are going to get worked out in the next couple of weeks because one of them or both of them are going to lose.

Does picking us last in the SEC every offseason matter? Maybe I’m wrong but it feels like stuff like that is used against us in recruiting.

I get that the MSU is going to probably lose a few more games, but you can’t ignore the data in front of you because you think so more data, which hasn’t happened yet, is coming. I just don’t see how you can put MichSt anywhere below Michigan at this point. You can certainly do it after they lose to Ohio State. But not until then.

If Bama was 9-1 with a loss to us and we were 9-1 with a loss to LSU this season…. You’d be ok with Bama ranked ahead of us?

 

[missouridawg]

This is what I never get. People get their Jimmy’s in a wad but it always works itself out.

What if Michigan State and Michigan both win out? What happens then? Do we all of the sudden consider the head to head data point and move MichSt ahead of them? Doesn’t that 17 Michigan over?It makes zero sense to ignore it now. I cannot see one single case for putting Michigan State behind Michigan today when you have the head to head data point in front of you.

Furthermore, how can you justify Oregon being ahead of Ohio State if you’re ok with Michigan ahead of MichSt?

There has to be some kind of logic to this. You can’t just make **** up like politicians do to support your nonsense. When data is there, you HAVE to use it.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

If State and Bama were 9-1 in the scenario you laid out, Bama would be ranked higher because they lost to a quality team whereas State lost to LSU. That’s how they’re looking at Michigan and Michigan St.

 

[MetEdDawg]

If State and Bama were 9-1 in the scenario you laid out, Bama would be ranked higher because they lost to a quality team whereas State lost to LSU. That’s how they’re looking at Michigan and Michigan St.

And this is really the answer. While Michigan lost to Michigan State, Michigan State lost to Purdue.

So based on their losses, who is the stronger team? The committee says Michigan even though they lost head to head to Michigan State.

Is that the right thing to do? Not sure. But what I can say is that if Michigan State wins that conference championship and are 10-1 they will be in the playoff. So they just need to go win games and they'll be in.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

It’s like I told a friend of mine that’s an Oklahoma fan that kept getting riled up about the rankings, just keep winning and it will work itself out. Obviously that didn’t happen with OU losing to Baylor.

 

[missouridawg]

If State and Bama were 9-1 in the scenario you laid out, Bama would be ranked higher because they lost to a quality team whereas State lost to LSU. That’s how they’re looking at Michigan and Michigan St.

And you’d be ok with it? That was the question.

And also explain how Oregon is ahead of Ohio State then.

 

[Go Budaw]

What if Michigan State and Michigan both win out? What happens then? Do we all of the sudden consider the head to head data point and move MichSt ahead of them? Doesn’t that 17 Michigan over?It makes zero sense to ignore it now. I cannot see one single case for putting Michigan State behind Michigan today when you have the head to head data point in front of you.

Furthermore, how can you justify Oregon being ahead of Ohio State if you’re ok with Michigan ahead of MichSt?

There has to be some kind of logic to this. You can’t just make **** up like politicians do to support your nonsense. When data is there, you HAVE to use it.

The head to head isn’t the only data point. Michigan State has a bad loss to an unranked Purdue. That plays heavily into the decision as well. Michigan’s loss on the road to Michigan State was also by a narrow margin, so there’s an argument to be made that they are still better on a neutral field.

 

[Go Budaw]

And you’d be ok with it? That was the question.

And also explain how Oregon is ahead of Ohio State then.

Oregon beat Ohio State in Columbus. Exact opposite of Michigan / Michigan State in that regard.

 

[hdogg]

They lost me last year, and it doesn't work itself out. When you have undefeated teams below 1 loss teams at this point in the season, it's not ok. See notre dame the last few years. And yes it's offensive with Michigan St and Oregon as well.
Let Cincinatti play , they have earned it so far. And to the people who say thay they would get killed by bama, maybe so, but no more than a 1 loss notre dame like previous years.
It's the herd mentality thay starts trying to justify a 1 loss bama team the day after they lose to aTm, or Ohio St every year. It's boring and predictable so I just skip the playoffs.
And anyone who disagrees with me is part of the problem.

 

[Coast_Dawg]

They lost me last year, and it doesn't work itself out. When you have undefeated teams below 1 loss teams at this point in the season, it's not ok. See notre dame the last few years. And yes it's offensive with Michigan St and Oregon as well.
Let Cincinatti play , they have earned it so far. And to the people who say thay they would get killed by bama, maybe so, but no more than a 1 loss notre dame like previous years.
It's the herd mentality thay starts trying to justify a 1 loss bama team the day after they lose to aTm, or Ohio St every year. It's boring and predictable so I just skip the playoffs.
And anyone who disagrees with me is part of the problem.

Don’t stop with Cincinnati. Include Texas San Antonio. They’re undefeated also. They’ve earned it by not losing.

1. Georgia
2. Cincinnati
3. UTSA
4. Pick it

************

 

[engie]

They lost me last year, and it doesn't work itself out. When you have undefeated teams below 1 loss teams at this point in the season, it's not ok.

So you are in favor of the path to the playoffs being the scheduling of the weakest SOS possible and going undefeated against that schedule?

Certainly a setup for compelling out of conference football going forward***

 

[patdog]

They lost me when they started ranking teams mid-season. There's no reason for them to rank teams at any time other than the end of the season. It's all for show. And by ranking them every week, their inconsistencies from week to week are just made obvious for the world to see.

 

[PirateDawg]

Don’t stop with Cincinnati. Include Texas San Antonio. They’re undefeated also. They’ve earned it by not losing.

1. Georgia
2. Cincinnati
3. UTSA
4. Pick it

************

Don't laugh, Miami won their NC by doing exactly what UTSA has done. Played nobodies during the season and only had to win one real game to claim the NC.

 

[mstateglfr]

It needs to expand to 8 or 12.

The argument against expansion, that the lower ranked teams would be destroyed, is 17ing weak. We have had blowouts and 1 sided dominant games even when its a 4 team system(BCS and Playoffs- a game is a game). So saying we need to keep blowouts from happening is a bad take since they already happen.

Expand to 8 and run a straight 8 team bracket. Or expand to 12 and run a play-in bracket.
8 would allow for 2 really great teams that arent a conference champ to still play.

SEC Champ
Big10 Champ
Big12 Champ
Pac12 Champ
ACC Champ
Highest rated G5 team
Committee selection
Committee selection


Ideally, we dont have any Conf Champ auto-bid and all 8 or all 12 are just picked. Not sure if all the conferences would agree to that since it would risk them still not getting a seat at the table if their conference champion is kinda weak.
This would allow teams to want to play competitive OOC games, which we all want.

Oh- and Cincy not being included is 17ing nuts. They have been a highly ranked team for a few years now and should absolutely have a chance to play. Them being locked out is just another example of why the 4 team playoff is a 17ing joke. Hopefully Georgia beats Bama at the Champ game and Bama drops due to 2 losses.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

The head to head isn’t the only data point. Michigan State has a bad loss to an unranked Purdue. That plays heavily into the decision as well. Michigan’s loss on the road to Michigan State was also by a narrow margin, so there’s an argument to be made that they are still better on a neutral field.

That would be great to consider, except that Oregon's loss to 3-7 Stanford is much worse than Mich State's loss to 6-4 Purdue, yet they are still ahead of Ohio State.

 

[Coast_Dawg]

Just let all 130 teams play 7 game schedule. Rank em and then have the bottom 4 do a play in followed by 128 team playoff winner take all. Then everybody gets a participation trophy and one team comes out as the NC.

 

[Coast_Dawg]

Oh- and Cincy not being included is 17ing nuts. They have been a highly ranked team for a few years now and should absolutely have a chance to play.

Since previous years should be considered, Bama is in by default. They should get a chance to defend their NC title in the playoff.

At least one of us was being sarcastic…

 

[GloryDawg]

Both of them have Ohio State on the schedule. The one that beats Ohio State if any is in. The committee looks down the road when ranking this week. If you are not in the top 4 but in the top 12 it doesn't matter.

 

[missouridawg]

Oregon beat Ohio State in Columbus. Exact opposite of Michigan / Michigan State in that regard.

So you’re saying a home win vs a road win carries enough weight for you to just ignore the actual on field result and claim the LOSER of the game better than the winner a week later?

Use logic people. This is not difficult.

 

[missouridawg]

Both of them have Ohio State on the schedule. The one that beats Ohio State if any is in. The committee looks down the road when ranking this week. If you are not in the top 4 but in the top 12 it doesn't matter.

And what if they both beat OSU? Then Michigan, who is currently ahead of MichSt, gets dropped below MichSt even though they won out against a similar schedule. And that logic is hot garbage.

If they do, in fact, look ahead…. Then they should over emphasize the on field result to make things cleaner down the road.

 

[johnson86-1]

Oh- and Cincy not being included is 17ing nuts. They have been a highly ranked team for a few years now and should absolutely have a chance to play. Them being locked out is just another example of why the 4 team playoff is a 17ing joke. Hopefully Georgia beats Bama at the Champ game and Bama drops due to 2 losses.

Cincy was the team that decided they didn't want to play for a championship. It sucks, but they more or less made the decision not to compete probably three or four years ago when they scheduled Notre Dame and Indiana as their two P5 opponents. They needed to schedule at least 3 P5 and probably 4 if they wanted a shot at a championship over a 1 loss P5 team (and possibly over a two loss P5 team with a really good SOS).

 

[mstateglfr]

Since previous years should be considered, Bama is in by default. They should get a chance to defend their NC title in the playoff.

At least one of us was being sarcastic…

My mentioning Cincy being good the last few years was a way to separate them from UTSA who is also undefeated. I do think Cincy should be in the discussion for a spot, I dont think UTSA should be in the discussion for a spot.

Reputation plays a part in rankings whether its liked or not.

 

[Coast_Dawg]

My mentioning Cincy being good the last few years was a way to separate them from UTSA who is also undefeated. I do think Cincy should be in the discussion for a spot, I dont think UTSA should be in the discussion for a spot.

Reputation plays a part in rankings whether its liked or not.

They are in the discussion. However, as the season has played out so far, they aren’t currently one of the 4 best teams. Bama isn’t getting in with 2 losses without a lot more losing happening regarding Oregon, Mich, Mich St, Ohio St.

Oregon isn’t going if they lose again.

A one loss B1G Champ Mich/Mich St/Ohio St is going in over Cincinnati.

If Bama and Georgia are both 12-1 after the SECCG, both are in.

If Cincinnati wins out, they will get in unless one of two specific scenario happens which is:

Scenario 1:

Bama beats Georgia and both are 12-1. Oregon wins out, and there’s a 1 loss B1G conf champ.

Scenario 2:

OK State or Oklahoma runs the table and finishes as a 1 loss Big 12 conf champ, the panel might weight the next 3 weeks as enough to jump Cincinnati but not likely.

I can’t think of any other scenarios that leaves undefeated Cincinnati out.

Also keep in mind that the discussion can also be had that the lesser schedule of Cincy allows them to be healthier throughout the season. The less wear and tear on the players’ bodies is a reality. Not sure if that is taken into account in the playoff rankings though.

The reputation point is valid unfortunately.

Edit: If Bama played Cincy for a 4 vs 5 play-in game, 11-2 Bama would curb stomp 13-0 Cincy but that wouldn’t be an option.

 

[Smoked Toag]

My mentioning Cincy being good the last few years was a way to separate them from UTSA who is also undefeated. I do think Cincy should be in the discussion for a spot, I dont think UTSA should be in the discussion for a spot.

Reputation plays a part in rankings whether its liked or not.

This is true, and it's why Boise State was going to get their shot in 2011 until they lost. It's also why Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt so much. It is what it is.

Either way, I do think Bama loses to Georgia, and Cincinnati will get their chance. Problem is, they aren't passing the eye test, and are playing a bunch of crappy teams close. They need to make a statement in these last 3 games. Right now, they do not deserve to be in.

 

[GloryDawg]

And what if they both beat OSU? Then Michigan, who is currently ahead of Mich St, gets dropped below Mich St even though they won out against a similar schedule. And that logic is hot garbage.

If they do, in fact, look ahead…. Then they should over emphasize the on field result to make things cleaner down the road.

Michigan State still has Penn State. If Michigan State and Michigan both beat Ohio State and MI STate beats Penn State MI State gets in. The committee always plays this game. Reality it doesn't matter right now.

 

[Seinfeld]

For the most part, I’ve appreciated the committee up to this point because they’ve shown the ability to add some much needed subjectivity to the system where polls and BCS rankings have failed in the past. And yes, I get that polls have always been subjective too, but it’s been a different kind. They throw Notre Dame in the top ten every preseason because it’s Notre Dame while the committee uses more of an eyeball test.

That said, I’ve always wondered how the eyeball test would fare when you’ve got a year like this with only one genuinely dominant team, and it sure feels like we’re headed towards a train wreck. If that does happen, I’m cool with it because I’ve been ready for an 8 team tournament since the CFP was announced

 

[Go Budaw]

So you’re saying a home win vs a road win carries enough weight for you to just ignore the actual on field result and claim the LOSER of the game better than the winner a week later?

Use logic people. This is not difficult.

Thats not what I’m saying. Oregon’s win was far more impressive than Michigan State’s win because it was on the road over a current Top 5 CFP team. It was also bigger in terms of margin of victory. That is why Ohio State isn’t ahead of Oregon, they lost to them at home.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Both of them have Ohio State on the schedule. The one that beats Ohio State if any is in. The committee looks down the road when ranking this week. If you are not in the top 4 but in the top 12 it doesn't matter.

No they aren't. They are basing on resume thus far.

The only problem (as always) is Alabama. They have them ranked higher than they should be, simply based on the name. It happens, I guess they've earned it over the past 13 years or so.

 

[TimberBeast]

The entire point is to have the best 4 teams in the playoffs. Is anyone actually suggesting that Cincifreakinatti could beat bama?

 

[fishwater99]

But at this point does it really matter? I totally get what you’re saying but these issues are going to get worked out in the next couple of weeks because one of them or both of them are going to lose.

No it does matter, it shows the lack of integrity in the poll right now.
If you don't trust it now, how can you trust it later?

 

[missouridawg]

Thats not what I’m saying. Oregon’s win was far more impressive than Michigan State’s win because it was on the road over a current Top 5 CFP team. It was also bigger in terms of margin of victory. That is why Ohio State isn’t ahead of Oregon, they lost to them at home.

And wasn’t Oregon’s loss way worse than OSUs?

They have the data point they need. They just have to use it.

 

[Ghostman]

Don't laugh, Miami won their NC by doing exactly what UTSA has done. Played nobodies during the season and only had to win one real game to claim the NC.

Those teams would be reasons for expanding the playoff to 12 teams. It would add a March Madness flare to the college football playoffs.

 

[Smoked Toag]

The entire point is to have the best 4 teams in the playoffs. Is anyone actually suggesting that Cincifreakinatti could beat bama?

No it's not. It's the 4 best resumes (i.e. what you did during the season).

"Best" can be defined too many different ways. What you do on the field must count. Thus far, all Alabama has done is beat us and Ole Miss, and lost to Texas A&M. Yes, it's tougher than Cincinnati's schedule but they are also undefeated.

It's a national championship, not an SEC championship part 2.

 

[Coast_Dawg]

Until the system becomes 100% objective and all subjectivity is removed, there will be room for argument.