The predictions of the future of college football ...

[Shmuley]

while not earth-shattering by any means, portend the unthinkable ....

"We’re approaching a seismic new chapter, and yet the field feels fragile. The NCAA, slow to everything, is laying the groundwork for a “super league” approach, with the biggest, best-funded schools breaking away from the lesser-funded riff raff to create their own system. Television networks—the hands behind the curtains here—will surely want a say in who makes the cut. Feelings are sure to get hurt. In any reorganization, low-rated schools are going to get dropped." -WSJ

I think we know where this is headed, don't we? Is 615 an emotional woman sometimes? Yes, but ...

 

[8dog]

I still say any network is gonna want as many teams involved as possible in a DTC/subscriber world.

 

[dorndawg]

I still say any network is gonna want as many teams involved as possible in a DTC/subscriber world.

This feels like magical thinking. Fact is, bigger brands get more eyeballs.

 

[8dog]

This feels like magical thinking. Fact is, bigger brands get more eyeballs.

They do but again it will very likely be a subscription based universe. Joe Fan who casually watches won’t be subscribing. And it’s not teams in mega cities that pick up fans. Yeah maybe it’s wishful thinking

 

[patdog]

This feels like magical thinking. Fact is, bigger brands get more eyeballs.

True. But the top 60 schools get more eyeballs than the top 20 do.

 

[Shmuley]

True. But the top 60 schools get more eyeballs than the top 20 do.

Unfortunately Lunardi would have us in the first 4 out

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I'm still not as convinced as many others. I don't see that change happening overnight. I think, for a decade or so, we'll have the current conference setup with the 12-teamer. NIL and the portal will settle down as folks just start to call bluffs, and I do think we will get some legislation on it all soon. That's really the bigger issue here, I'll get back to this in a minute. After the ACC split, we'll start to see sort of a breakaway of the SEC/B1G, as they'll essentially dominate the 12-team playoff for the next 10-15 years after that. So now we are at 25 years away.

Back to the point in my first paragraph, I think the bigger issue with all this is if the TV money will ever be paid through the school, to the players. Until that's settled out, I don't know how realistic a super league really is. And I see this as more of a fans vs. the TV execs/schools thing. The players are getting paid now - it's the fans that are getting 17ed. That is the bigger picture issue here - when do fans say, enough is enough? Or can we? That will probably happen slowly too. At first, it's eroding our care level for our own schools, then overall eyeballs will start to go down, then money starts to dry up. I don't see any of this happening for a long long time, though.

I personally think the world is about to get a lot more stagnated. We thought because things changed so much during COVID, that it will always be that way, but it won't.

 

[patdog]

The breakaway is happening now. It won’t be a breakaway from the NCAA or as neat as the NFL replica 32-team league a lot of people talk about. It’s the SEC & Big 10 expanding ultimately to about 20-24 schools each. With the Big 12 & ACC forming a 2nd tier totaling another 40-48 schools. This group will form a Div I Premier Division for football.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

I'm not typically a Pro fan, much anymore. But, I will just turn to that, rather than this Semi Pro stuff that is going on.
I think college football is fast skating toward thin ice.
No more loyalty, school pride, at all.

 

[thatsbaseball]

I believe at this point at least some Congressmen and possibly Senators will get involved. It may be strictly showboating/pandering but I would bet it will happen.

 

[GloryDawg]

I think the madness with NIL and Transfer Portal will come to an end. Still be around but the craziness we are seeing right now will go away. Not that it has anything to do with NIL or the portal but FSU getting left out of the playoff opened up some eyes of most of Florida's politicians. We are talking Senators, Governor and Congressman. I think it is going to grow.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Unfortunately Lunardi would have us in the first 4 out

We better hope that Mark Keenum does not retire before the Top 50-60 split because otherwise 2 schools from Mississippi will never make the cut.

 

[ckDOG]

This all seems short sighted and decided by people that will no doubt make some big short term financial gains. But to what end?

College and NFL products serve different markets. The more you make college football compete with the pros, the more likely your league is going to get their *** kicked by the mature stable product. The NFL will win that battle. College football didn't get to where it is today by pretending to be a pro or semi pro league. There's room for some player compensation of course but all this boat rocking is just going to bring too much change to the product that's worked very well over the decades.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

This all seems short sighted and decided by people that will no doubt make some big short term financial gains. But to what end?

College and NFL products serve different markets. The more you make college football compete with the pros, the more likely your league is going to get their *** kicked by the mature stable product. The NFL will win that battle. College football didn't get to where it is today by pretending to be a pro or semi pro league. There's room for some player compensation of course but all this boat rocking is just going to bring too much change to the product that's worked very well over the decades.

Very true. But even I wonder sometimes if college football succeeded so much at first because the system was young, or because someone had the right idea. Because ever since TV was invented, it has controlled the sport. So many of us, me included, are nostalgic about certain eras because we had the privilege of being fan before the tipping point came (which we are closing in on now). This consolidation phenomena has been steadily happening over time, slowly but surely, and it was always celebrated until now. That's a rather cynical way of viewing it, but it is what it is.

Many times, from say 1970 until now, the NCAA probably could have stepped in and taken control, but they never did. I mean they lost the TV lawsuit to the conferences way back when, so it may have just been inevitable. I guess conferences have always had the power and we just didn't know it.

 

[Mr. Cook]

We better hope that Mark Keenum does not retire before the Top 50-60 split because otherwise 2 schools from Mississippi will never make the cut.

What makes you think that?

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

With College Freshmen getting more than draft picks now, I suspect the NFLPA is about to revolt and ask for more money for the rookies and so forth.
Kind of like the ridiculousness of people actually thinking raising the minimum wage to $15 is a good thing.

 

[POTUS]

We better hope that Mark Keenum does not retire before the Top 50-60 split because otherwise 2 schools from Mississippi will never make the cut.

That’s hilarious. There is no way Ole Miss gets left out. Us on the other hand, we are infinitely leave-behind-able. Wazzu & Oregon St are our contemporaries. We just have the SEC welfare check, for now. I’m not dooming and glooming. It’s just as plain as day for anyone not blinded by school loyalty.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

The NCAA can work on whatever they want. College football isn't going to be part of the NCAA real soon.

 

[1msucub]

That’s hilarious. There is no way Ole Miss gets left out. Us on the other hand, we are infinitely leave-behind-able. Wazzu & Oregon St are our contemporaries. We just have the SEC welfare check, for now. I’m not dooming and glooming. It’s just as plain as day for anyone not blinded by school loyalty.

I could be wrong, but I took that to mean State and USM.

 

[patdog]

I think the madness with NIL and Transfer Portal will come to an end. Still be around but the craziness we are seeing right now will go away. Not that it has anything to do with NIL or the portal but FSU getting left out of the playoff opened up some eyes of most of Florida's politicians. We are talking Senators, Governor and Congressman. I think it is going to grow.

I think it’s the opposite. It will get even worse.

 

[Coast_Dawg]

The system is broken beyond repair. Teams are the best they can afford…everyone of them. CFB has gotten larger than any entity that could try to regulate it. Any school or employee trying to regulate anything and play by rules is wasting their time and creating undue hindrance. I don’t like it but I can see it. The extreme moves it would take to get it back to any sort of amateur sport would not be received well by most involved.

 

[ronpolk]

while not earth-shattering by any means, portend the unthinkable ....

"We’re approaching a seismic new chapter, and yet the field feels fragile. The NCAA, slow to everything, is laying the groundwork for a “super league” approach, with the biggest, best-funded schools breaking away from the lesser-funded riff raff to create their own system. Television networks—the hands behind the curtains here—will surely want a say in who makes the cut. Feelings are sure to get hurt. In any reorganization, low-rated schools are going to get dropped." -WSJ

I think we know where this is headed, don't we? Is 615 an emotional woman sometimes? Yes, but ...

I read that quote and see it talks about a separation of the have and have nots. Maybe I’m just being optimistic but ask southern miss, Memphis, Troy, Liberty, USF, etc… who is a have and have not in college sports. We are probably one of the top 30 or 40 athletic departments in terms of total budget. Now obviously that’s because we are living on SEC money… but it’s clearly a situation of worst house in the best neighborhood.

I guess my point is, this deal has to get under 30 programs before I get too worried. Again, I may be too optimistic.

 

[GloryDawg]

I think it’s the opposite. It will get even worse.

I hope it get worse really fast so it will open up more eyes.

 

[Coast_Dawg]

Only way I can see NIL getting any better is somehow having the collectives regulated out existence.

As for the portal, the student aspect and good academic standing could come into play but most semesters end by the 2nd weekend of December so not sure how much could be done there either. That directly correlates to the failing bowl game model that used to be. Perhaps the number of bowl games gets into the more reasonable number.

 

[Studentdawg06]

We better hope that Mark Keenum does not retire before the Top 50-60 split because otherwise 2 schools from Mississippi will never make the cut.

Keenum is the reason the program is in the ******* and we’re worried about not making the cut.

 

[ETK99]

Keenum is the reason the program is in the ******* and we’re worried about not making the cut.

Keenum is the only person with any swing to help us. He's lame, but he's got swing. But here's my conspiracy: The SEC is hammering us with the schedule, they give us less media time, they basically keep their foot on our neck. Imagine if we had that OM schedule. We'd feel pretty decent about a bowl game next year. Instead, we get the #4 schedule in the country. AL and TX got easy schedules too.

 

[kired]

I read that quote and see it talks about a separation of the have and have nots. Maybe I’m just being optimistic but ask southern miss, Memphis, Troy, Liberty, USF, etc… who is a have and have not in college sports. We are probably one of the top 30 or 40 athletic departments in terms of total budget. Now obviously that’s because we are living on SEC money… but it’s clearly a situation of worst house in the best neighborhood.

I guess my point is, this deal has to get under 30 programs before I get too worried. Again, I may be too optimistic.

If you follow the 80/20 rule… you want to take at least 26. And most would argue you want to include the next 20% of what’s left - so another 20ish. My guess is they’ll want to leave room for expansion so initially they’ll probably start with fewer than they really want long term. Somewhere in that 30-40 range would be my guess

 

[jethreauxdawg]

At least we’ve got a stellar academic reputation to fall back on

 

[patdog]

Keenum is the only person with any swing to help us. He's lame, but he's got swing. But here's my conspiracy: The SEC is hammering us with the schedule, they give us less media time, they basically keep their foot on our neck. Imagine if we had that OM schedule. We'd feel pretty decent about a bowl game next year. Instead, we get the #4 schedule in the country. AL and TX got easy schedules too.

This is ridiculous. Are you seriously suggesting that if it gets to the point Mississippi State is about to be relegated to a 2nd tier conference, they’re going to say, “But wait, Mark Keenum. Ok, Mississippi States in.”

 

[ETK99]

This is ridiculous. Are you seriously suggesting that if it gets to the point Mississippi State is about to be relegated to a 2nd tier conference, they’re going to say, “But wait, Mark Keenum. Ok, Mississippi States in.”

No, I'm saying he's all the swing we've got.

 

[615dawg]

while not earth-shattering by any means, portend the unthinkable ....

"We’re approaching a seismic new chapter, and yet the field feels fragile. The NCAA, slow to everything, is laying the groundwork for a “super league” approach, with the biggest, best-funded schools breaking away from the lesser-funded riff raff to create their own system. Television networks—the hands behind the curtains here—will surely want a say in who makes the cut. Feelings are sure to get hurt. In any reorganization, low-rated schools are going to get dropped." -WSJ

I think we know where this is headed, don't we? Is 615 an emotional woman sometimes? Yes, but ...

Sorry!!!

Ive been shouting this is where we are headed for years now. It was based on a conversation I had with a couple of people who work high in college athletics. It depends on what the networks want - a 24-team league is going to be hard for MSU to break into. There's a chance at 32, and if its 40+ we should be okay.


Its going to be about views. We were the 32nd most watched team in 2023. The 24 most watched teams in 2023 make for a nice alignment.

South
Alabama
Georgia
Tennessee
LSU
Auburn
Ole Miss

Midwest
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Missouri
Iowa
Nebraska

West
Colorado
Oregon
Texas
Washington
USC
Texas A&M

East
Florida State
Penn State
Florida
Clemson
Miami
Duke

The four teams in italics were in the top 24 in 2023, but could be replaced if multi-year ratings were used. For example, Oklahoma was 25th. They are a bigger brand than those four.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Too many of you are just negative nellies. All the current SEC schools (who want to stay in) are in. The SEC and B10 aren't going to give up power and fold into another organization. They will be the driving force behind the path forward. It will be 60-80 teams (3 or 4 conferences of 20ish teams each).

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Sorry!!!

Ive been shouting this is where we are headed for years now. It was based on a conversation I had with a couple of people who work high in college athletics. It depends on what the networks want - a 24-team league is going to be hard for MSU to break into. There's a chance at 32, and if its 40+ we should be okay.


Its going to be about views. We were the 32nd most watched team in 2023. The 24 most watched teams in 2023 make for a nice alignment.

South
Alabama
Georgia
Tennessee
LSU
Auburn
Ole Miss

Midwest
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Missouri
Iowa
Nebraska

West
Colorado
Oregon
Texas
Washington
USC
Texas A&M

East
Florida State
Penn State
Florida
Clemson
Miami
Duke

The four teams in italics were in the top 24 in 2023, but could be replaced if multi-year ratings were used. For example, Oklahoma was 25th. They are a bigger brand than those four.

Dude, put the pipe down, you think TV execs are going to only 24 teams for a regional sport? You do realize the NFL has 32 teams? It will be 60-80 teams.

 

[615dawg]

Dude, put the pipe down, you think TV execs are going to only 24 teams for a regional sport? You do realize the NFL has 32 teams? It will be 60-80 teams.

I don’t know what they are going to do. I am confident that the Southern Miss/ Louisiana Tech/Troy teams are not playing at the highest level of college football in a decade.

Where that cut is going to be is the question. Is it going to include Kansas State, Baylor, Mississippi State, Rutgers and Illinois?

What just happened to Wazzu and Oregon State is going to happen again to someone.

I’ve posted what I think is going to happen. Texas-Alabama and USC-Ohio State is going to give the TV execs a hard on and the next round of contract talks are going to discuss “Why can’t we have those matchups every week instead of Michigan-Rutgers or Georgia-Vanderbilt?”

The schools are going to lip service tradition until they are offered $150 million each.

 

[patdog]

Too many of you are just negative nellies. All the current SEC schools (who want to stay in) are in. The SEC and B10 aren't going to give up power and fold into another organization. They will be the driving force behind the path forward. It will be 60-80 teams (3 or 4 conferences of 20ish teams each).

This guy gets it. People talking about A realignment. We’re almost there already. Last domino to fall will be when 4-6 ACC schools get picked up by SEC & Big 10.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Where that cut is going to be is the question. Is it going to include Kansas State, Baylor, Mississippi State, Rutgers and Illinois?

What just happened to Wazzu and Oregon State is going to happen again to someone.

MSU, is in the SEC and Rutgers and Ill are in the B10 so they are fine (unless the B10 has some type of provision to kick them out, as far as the SEC is concerned we are safe). Don't know about KSU and Baylor as they are in a much lesser conference, who knows how that will shake out. The SEC and B10 will run the show, the Big 12 will not have much sway on things.

You do realize the Pac 12 imploded right (and it was due to incompetent leadership as much as anything else)? The SEC is not going to implode.

Any team, not in the Big 10/SEC, other than ND and the top few teams in the ACC, should be concerned.

 

[615dawg]

As I have said, the SEC isn’t going to kick us out.
The elite schools are going to leave the SEC.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

As I have said, the SEC isn’t going to kick us out.
The elite schools are going to leave the SEC.

I don't know if you guys understand how power works. The top 4-5 schools in the SEC have the power. Bama, UT, UGA, LSU, UF aren't going to give up the power they have in the SEC to move to another organization. Texas and Oklaomo will make the SEC even more powerful. The aforementioned teams aren't going to leave a dominate situation where they hold most of the power and move to another organization where they would have to share power will equally big fish (USC, Mich, TOSU, ND, FSU, UNC, Penn State, etc).

No Big 10/SEC school is going to leave their conference, their power, their protection, their strength, that'd be stupid.

The Big 10/SEC will not be part of the path forward, they will be the path forward.

Texas, Florida, NY, they're not leaving the US, Scotland's not leaving the UK, BC isn't leaving Canada.

 

[topbulldawg]

I am not sure if I really believe this, but being a big fish in a lower pond that mimics something to college football vs. being a lower fish in the worlds of the semi-pro football may not be the worst thing in the world (for football only). Of course, the TV money is a big deal and something we would miss.

 

[Kojak.sixpack]

How do we invest the tv money we get every year?