The REAL elephant in the room…

[Maroon Eagle]

…or why NIL ain’t the number one issue affecting MSU…

Many state universities are doing well.

And those that do well have great locations.

Those that don’t are in states with stagnant populations — such as West Virginia University and the University of Nebraska.

Nebraska’s population of college-bound students is anticipated to decline by 15 percent by the end of the decade; West Virginia’s, 7.5 percent.

“Since most college students attend an institution within 50 miles of their home, regional student populations are critical.”

All this is from this article:

https://www.chronicle.com/article/most-public-flagships-are-booming-why-are-a-handful-flailing

What’s 50 miles from MSU you may ask?



Back to that Chronicle article…

“In-state students who don’t get into the increasingly competitive University of Texas at Austin, University of Georgia, or Georgia Institute of Technology have helped fuel the boom at flagships in neighboring states…”

In Fall 2022, Ole Miss had 2,169 students from the above states. State had 1,241. 49.9 percent of Ole Miss’s students are non-residents; State’s, 36.8 percent. This paragraph’s data is from

http://www.mississippi.edu/research/downloads/2022enrollmentbook.pdf (check out page 16)

State had better be glad they recruit Alabama well.

 

[dorndawg]

Colleges are facing a demographics cliff - there's simply less college-age kids than there have been in the recent past


Now consider birthrates during the Great Recession, which began in 2008. During that time of economic stress and uncertainty, notes Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe, people were having fewer children. The number of kids born between 2008 and 2011 plummeted dramatically.


So if you graph demographic projections, the precipitous descent resembles a cliff beginning in 2025. Over the succeeding four years, the number of 18-year-olds will decrease by 15%.


How does that translate into enrollment figures? During that four-year span, colleges will lose approximately 576,000 students.


Unfortunately for higher education, this situation isn't an aberration. College enrollments have been declining steadily since 2012. During COVID-19's apex — from 2019 to 2022 — undergraduate enrollment dropped by 7%.

Looming Enrollment Cliff Poses Serious Threat to Colleges | BestColleges

Lower birthrates during the Great Recession will result in fewer college-age students starting in 2025, threatening tuition-dependent private colleges.

www.bestcolleges.com

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Yep. And not only are there fewer kids, there are fewer workers in Mississippi.



“Mississippi’s lowest monthly labor force participation rate occurred for three consecutive months in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, said state economist Corey Miller, who spoke Monday to the Mississippi State University Stennis Institute of Government/Capitol Press Corps luncheon.”

 

[Podgy]

"In Fall 2022, Ole Miss had 2,169 students from the above states. State had 1,241. 49.9 percent of Ole Miss’s students are non-residents; State’s, 36.8 percent."

Ole Miss is ahead of State in some important ways. I remember Hank Flick coming to class one day and basically saying that State is better because we're not as arrogant or elitist. We're just better people. Don't know whether that's actually true but it's the fall back position when comparing the two schools and noticing that Ole Miss is ahead in some ways. How do you get those students and athletes to choose State over Ole Miss?

I'd like to see numbers coming out of TN and LA for Ole Miss. I could see someone choosing Ole Miss instead of Memphis and Monroe. We're closer to Alabama but Tuscaloosa is a draw in a way Memphis isn't for college students and their parents.

 

[LOTRGOTDAWGFAN]

i'd like to see one of these for mississippi's junior colleges.

 

[NWADawg]

UPig has grown from less than 18k in 2005 to almost 31k this year. They lure a ton of Texas kids with out of state waiver programs. There is also a lot of population and job opportunities => Money in the area.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

I'd like to see numbers coming out of TN and LA for Ole Miss. I could see someone choosing Ole Miss instead of Memphis and Monroe. We're closer to Alabama but Tuscaloosa is a draw in a way Memphis isn't for college students and their parents.

Ole Miss has 2,076 coming from both of those states. State has 1,957.

State really emphasizes Alabama— 1,553 students from there. Ole Miss only has 479.

Both schools do well recruiting regionally. It’d be nice if State had more of a National focus though.

Ole Miss has 3,032 students from outside the South while State has 1,242– again these are Fall 2022 numbers.

 

[mstateglfr]

Speaking of elephants, for the last 20 years Bama has navigated the out of state student pool better than most any state school I can think of.
Bama went from 75% in state 25% out of state in 2002 to 37% in state 63% out of state just 20 years later. And thats also while doubling enrollment overall.
Wild.




In 2002, the University of Alabama had an in-state–to–out-of-state ratio of roughly 75–25. By 2018, that ratio had almost flipped, to 34–66, the equivalent of a 180 percent increase in out-of-state students.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2022/09/public-universities-out-of-state-tuition-student-debt.html


Total enrollment at the University of Alabama has climbed to 38,645 students, which is about 100 more students from its previous 2017 record and 300 more students from last year. Of those, 8,036 students are freshmen.
The jump comes during an era of rapid growth for the university. Enrollment has doubled in the past 20 years...
https://www.al.com/educationlab/202...two-student-enrollment-records-this-fall.html


The University of Alabama (UA) reported a record-breaking 2022-2023 freshman class on Monday, totaling 8,037 students, only 37% of whom are from Alabama.
For the 2022-2023 academic year, the university enrolled a total of 38,645 students, toppling its 2017 record of 38,563.
https://1819news.com/news/item/only...ma-less-than-half-undergrad-students-in-state


According to a 2021 article from the Atlantic, UA began recruiting heavily out of state in the early 2000s due to the much higher tuition for out-of-state students versus in-state residents.
According to U.S. News, in-state tuition for UA is $11,940. Out-of-state tuition is almost three times higher, at $32,300.
The Atlantic cited Robert Witt, former president of UA and former Chancellor of the UA System, as the mastermind behind the shift.
Witt came to UA in 2003 and targeted out-of-state students in response to pressure from university faculty and administrators to raise pay, according to the article.
https://1819news.com/news/item/only...ma-less-than-half-undergrad-students-in-state

 

[patdog]

Speaking of elephants, for the last 20 years Bama has navigated the out of state student pool better than most any state school I can think of.

In 2002, the University of Alabama had an in-state–to–out-of-state ratio of roughly 75–25. By 2018, that ratio had almost flipped, to 34–66, the equivalent of a 180 percent increase in out-of-state students.

Two words. Nick. Saban. One of their Board of Trustees made the statement a decade ago that hiring Nick Saban was the best financial investment Alabama has ever made.

 

[Maroon13]

We get our share of kids from Desoto County/Memphis but OM gets many more from that area.... naturally.

Another thing.... y'all may scuff at.... OMs Greek system attracts a lot of out of state kids. The hype of the town, party scene and Greek system attracts a lot of rejects from UGA, tx and uva. Go to any of those Oxford square restaurants during rush next year, they are filled with out of state helicopter parents.

When my kids went through visits and orientation at State, it seems State is reluctant to mention the Greek system.

 

[Podgy]

Ole Miss has 2,076 coming from both of those states. State has 1,957.

State really emphasizes Alabama— 1,553 students from there. Ole Miss only has 479.

Both schools do well recruiting regionally. It’d be nice if State had more of a National focus though.

Ole Miss has 3,032 students from outside the South while State has 1,242– again these are Fall 2022 numbers.

We need some good marketing gurus to get more kids on campus. I hope Lebby has the personality and coaching and recruiting chops to get young guys on campus.

 

[Maroon13]

Two words. Nick. Saban. One of their Board of Trustees made the statement a decade ago that hiring Nick Saban was the best financial investment Alabama has ever made.

And the Greek system. Or maybe Bama rush is a byproduct of Saban.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

…or why NIL ain’t the number one issue affecting MSU…

Many state universities are doing well.

And those that do well have great locations.

Those that don’t are in states with stagnant populations — such as West Virginia University and the University of Nebraska.

Nebraska’s population of college-bound students is anticipated to decline by 15 percent by the end of the decade; West Virginia’s, 7.5 percent.

“Since most college students attend an institution within 50 miles of their home, regional student populations are critical.”

All this is from this article:

https://www.chronicle.com/article/most-public-flagships-are-booming-why-are-a-handful-flailing

What’s 50 miles from MSU you may ask?

View attachment 482722

Back to that Chronicle article…

“In-state students who don’t get into the increasingly competitive University of Texas at Austin, University of Georgia, or Georgia Institute of Technology have helped fuel the boom at flagships in neighboring states…”

In Fall 2022, Ole Miss had 2,169 students from the above states. State had 1,241. 49.9 percent of Ole Miss’s students are non-residents; State’s, 36.8 percent. This paragraph’s data is from

http://www.mississippi.edu/research/downloads/2022enrollmentbook.pdf (check out page 16)

State had better be glad they recruit Alabama well.

I've been beating this drum forever, nobody cares. Whether we like it or not, MSU is linked to the success of MS and in particular, Jackson. Yeah, we can say that we will live off recruiting Memphis and Birmingham and Huntsville, but Ole Miss is between us and Memphis, and Alabama is in between us and Birmingham, and has the geographic/state edge on Huntsville. LSU/USM to the Coast/NOLA/Mobile. And we are just another college in the boom areas like Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas and Houston.

All this to say - the Jackson Metro is CRITICAL to the growth of MSU. And nobody cares about that, so......

 

[OG Goat Holder]

UPig has grown from less than 18k in 2005 to almost 31k this year. They lure a ton of Texas kids with out of state waiver programs. There is also a lot of population and job opportunities => Money in the area.

Yeah, the money in the area was the catalyst. That's why they are succeeding. And you look at Clemson and Alabama, who are succeeding with out-of-state kids from up north, and you can say it's football, and that's true - but it's also the growth of jobs in those states. It's seen as attractive.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

All this to say - the Jackson Metro is CRITICAL to the growth of MSU. And nobody cares about that, so......

Jackson Metro is critical when it comes to in-state students.

However, the in-state pool is shrinking.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Jackson Metro is critical when it comes to in-state students.

However, the in-state pool is shrinking.

Well, that's my point. The bigger issue to me is the shrinking - because that's where the problem will be for MSU, eventually.

Unless we can somehow find some honey hole of out-of-state kids. I don't know if west TN and non-Auburn fan NW AL kids can fill the void. I guess there are some in east AR too who come do the ag thing.

Not to mention, as soon these kids graduate - they head out of state, which decreases the likelihood of them attending sports events, donating, and sending their kids to MSU. That's the case with the in-state kids too, half the time, because there's no real thriving urban area to attract them.

 

[maroonfriday]

I've been beating this drum forever, nobody cares. Whether we like it or not, MSU is linked to the success of MS and in particular, Jackson. Yeah, we can say that we will live off recruiting Memphis and Birmingham and Huntsville, but Ole Miss is between us and Memphis, and Alabama is in between us and Birmingham, and has the geographic/state edge on Huntsville. LSU/USM to the Coast/NOLA/Mobile. And we are just another college in the boom areas like Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas and Houston.

All this to say - the Jackson Metro is CRITICAL to the growth of MSU. And nobody cares about that, so......

Madison and Rankin counties represent more students at MSU than any other counties in the state, and Hinds is only behind a few others. So the Jackson metro are absolutely represented well in our enrollment.

 

[Mr. Cook]

This original post and ensuing thread might represent the darkest outlook I've seen for MSU in many, many years. All of the factors mentioned within, plus an eventual/inevitable change in MSU leadership which has punched WAY above its weight for MSU.

Even a Target might not help ******

 

[eckie1]

…or why NIL ain’t the number one issue affecting MSU…

Many state universities are doing well.

And those that do well have great locations.

Those that don’t are in states with stagnant populations — such as West Virginia University and the University of Nebraska.

Nebraska’s population of college-bound students is anticipated to decline by 15 percent by the end of the decade; West Virginia’s, 7.5 percent.

“Since most college students attend an institution within 50 miles of their home, regional student populations are critical.”

All this is from this article:

https://www.chronicle.com/article/most-public-flagships-are-booming-why-are-a-handful-flailing

What’s 50 miles from MSU you may ask?

View attachment 482722

Back to that Chronicle article…

“In-state students who don’t get into the increasingly competitive University of Texas at Austin, University of Georgia, or Georgia Institute of Technology have helped fuel the boom at flagships in neighboring states…”

In Fall 2022, Ole Miss had 2,169 students from the above states. State had 1,241. 49.9 percent of Ole Miss’s students are non-residents; State’s, 36.8 percent. This paragraph’s data is from

http://www.mississippi.edu/research/downloads/2022enrollmentbook.pdf (check out page 16)

State had better be glad they recruit Alabama well.

To me, the most obvious answer is that A) far fewer in-state kids want to go to Ole Miss unless they have to and B) Keenum focuses WAY more on in-state students than he does others. The Rebs have to have OOS kids to keep up. With TX’s biggest schools being almost impossible to get into, they get a lot of those guys.

So does Arkansas, and I think they may even get in-state tuition. I lived in Little Rock a while, and I was shocked at how few kids in the area went to upig. And it’s not like it’s hard to get in.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Madison and Rankin counties represent more students at MSU than any other counties in the state, and Hinds is only behind a few others. So the Jackson metro are absolutely represented well in our enrollment.

This should be a given.

But I'm ultimately talking about the future....if the state's population keeps dwindling, thus Madison and Rankin does too.

But....I don't think that will happen. Madison/Rankin, along with a few other places, will be the last holdouts if the current trend continues. The real losers are the small towns.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

This original post and ensuing thread might represent the darkest outlook I've seen for MSU in many, many years. All of the factors mentioned within, plus an eventual/inevitable change in MSU leadership which has punched WAY above its weight for MSU.

Even a Target might not help ******

At least we still have the SEC TV welfare...

 

[Maroon Eagle]

This original post and ensuing thread might represent the darkest outlook I've seen for MSU in many, many years. All of the factors mentioned within, plus an eventual/inevitable change in MSU leadership which has punched WAY above its weight for MSU.

Even a Target might not help ******

Not looking good…

When Keenum leaves you know that the IHL will go for an insider— just look to see who on their higher administrative staff has a Doctorate.

Checking the IHL website…

Hmmm… The Commish… Dr. Rankins has his PhD from State and was a Prof there before going to the IHL and then Alcorn (where he got his BS) before returning to IHL…

So yeah, Rankins is my odds-on favorite to be the next president of MSU.

 

[Mr. Cook]

Not looking good…

When Keenum leaves you know that the IHL will go for an insider— just look to see who on their higher administrative staff has a Doctorate.

Checking the IHL website…

Hmmm… The Commish… Dr. Rankins has his PhD from State and was a Prof there before going to the IHL and then Alcorn (where he got his BS) before returning to IHL…

So yeah, Rankins is my odds-on favorite to be the next president of MSU.

As some point in the future, each Mississippi public university would do well to have its own board of trustees. Things are too insulated

 

[ETK99]

Generally speaking, 200 miles is the range of students going to college, but State does a poor job of recruiting OOS. We really need to ease the costs and make it easier for those kids. Give OOS kids incentive to come here. Stop clinging to this idea that it's all about MS. Start being more competitive with scholarship money (I know...endowment).

 

[Maroon Eagle]

As some point in the future, each Mississippi public university would do well to have its own board of trustees. Things are too insulated

This is Mr. Cook in Panic Mode coming to grips with the idea of Rankins’ realistic, plausible opportunity to be MSU’s President.

 

[Mr. Cook]

This is Mr. Cook in Panic Mode coming to grips with the idea of Rankins’ realistic, plausible opportunity to be MSU’s President.

Well, if that who has to follow the “Stability Legend,” I wish him well. Those are going to be some big shoes to fill.

 

[StateCollege]

I've always been #TeamJXN in the sense that I do care about it and hope that one day it could dig itself out of the hole its.

But at the same time, it is so frustrating to me that Mississippi only has one genuine city. I'm fully aware of the challenges that our state has, but even with that we should be able to support an smaller equivalent to a Huntsville, Montgomery, or even a Murfreesboro.

We don't have any other potential candidate either. DeSoto County is doing well, but that has more to do with being in the Memphis Metro Area. The coast has seen some population growth, but nothing major.

It probably should have been Meridian, but they've been heading the opposite direction for a while. Tupelo is doing well, but we are still talking about a population that has grown by 3,500 people in 20 years.

 

[johnson86-1]

Colleges are facing a demographics cliff - there's simply less college-age kids than there have been in the recent past


Now consider birthrates during the Great Recession, which began in 2008. During that time of economic stress and uncertainty, notes Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe, people were having fewer children. The number of kids born between 2008 and 2011 plummeted dramatically.


So if you graph demographic projections, the precipitous descent resembles a cliff beginning in 2025. Over the succeeding four years, the number of 18-year-olds will decrease by 15%.


How does that translate into enrollment figures? During that four-year span, colleges will lose approximately 576,000 students.


Unfortunately for higher education, this situation isn't an aberration. College enrollments have been declining steadily since 2012. During COVID-19's apex — from 2019 to 2022 — undergraduate enrollment dropped by 7%.

Looming Enrollment Cliff Poses Serious Threat to Colleges | BestColleges

Lower birthrates during the Great Recession will result in fewer college-age students starting in 2025, threatening tuition-dependent private colleges.

www.bestcolleges.com

The one thing that will save universities like MSU and Ole Miss is that people are waking up to how terrible student loan debt is for most people. They can pay full OOS freight and be better off than going to a nearby private school. I suspect it's mostly going to be small liberal arts colleges without true name recognition that are going to be hammered unless they just have an endowment that can keep them self sufficient without typical private school tuition.

 

[Yeti]

Parent of a child that is a senior in high school. Two friends kids one for Orlando one from Milwaukee going to OM. OM waived out of state for one cause Dad is a Veteran. Now we may do that too but man he ate it up. Kid had 20 or 21 ACT. Instagram Greek life looks fun and once OM finds them they send great stuff. My daughter never looked at State but Arkansas OM and Oklahoma did best marketing job and all threw money at her without applying for scholly. Alabama threw money too. Going to TCU but these state schools are really sending big marketing kits and Greek life was a big part of it. Go Frogs

 

[WilCoDawg]

I can attest MSU does a pathetic job of recruiting the Nashville area vs UM. This is a feeder area for them snots.

 

[PhiDawg]

MSU recruiting is doing fine. Largest freshman class in school history. Relax. Ole Miss is in feast/famine cycles with TX kids.

 

[Palos verdes]

I think metro Atlanta is a good growth spot for recruiting students. The population continues to grow and is expanding northeast and northwest, plus it's not that far of a drive, and has daily air service additional convenience.

 

[Baddog11]

Some interesting reads in this thread. But If you’d have told me (back when ole miss waved the stick flags) that in the future….players would be leaving their teams from across the country to transfer to ole miss, I wouldn’t have believed you.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

As some point in the future, each Mississippi public university would do well to have its own board of trustees. Things are too insulated

Been saying that for years.

Each school should be in charge of hiring and firing its own president.

 

[HumpDawgy]

 

[dorndawg]

The one thing that will save universities like MSU and Ole Miss is that people are waking up to how terrible student loan debt is for most people. They can pay full OOS freight and be better off than going to a nearby private school. I suspect it's mostly going to be small liberal arts colleges without true name recognition that are going to be hammered unless they just have an endowment that can keep them self sufficient without typical private school tuition.

I don't know how schools like Belhaven will stay afloat.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Colleges are facing a demographics cliff - there's simply less college-age kids than there have been in the recent past


Now consider birthrates during the Great Recession, which began in 2008. During that time of economic stress and uncertainty, notes Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe, people were having fewer children. The number of kids born between 2008 and 2011 plummeted dramatically.


So if you graph demographic projections, the precipitous descent resembles a cliff beginning in 2025. Over the succeeding four years, the number of 18-year-olds will decrease by 15%.


How does that translate into enrollment figures? During that four-year span, colleges will lose approximately 576,000 students.


Unfortunately for higher education, this situation isn't an aberration. College enrollments have been declining steadily since 2012. During COVID-19's apex — from 2019 to 2022 — undergraduate enrollment dropped by 7%.

Looming Enrollment Cliff Poses Serious Threat to Colleges | BestColleges

Lower birthrates during the Great Recession will result in fewer college-age students starting in 2025, threatening tuition-dependent private colleges.

www.bestcolleges.com

This is just foreshadowing what we will continue to see in the labor market as Boomers continue to retire and there is nobody to replace them. Unfortunately, neither party is doing what it takes to provide meaningful immigration reform to help matters.

 

[msualohadog]

I think metro Atlanta is a good growth spot for recruiting students. The population continues to grow and is expanding northeast and northwest, plus it's not that far of a drive, and has daily air service additional convenience.

This. 7 million people, most of whom cannot get into UGA. Ole Miss outdoes State about 3 to 1 in ATL. Had a fraternity rush guy tell me next year they're not bothering with ATL because it's a waste of time and money. Sad.

Another thing we don't hype as much is the military out of state waiver. DD214 with honorable discharge and ALL out of state tuition is waivered. All of it. We need to trumpet that fact loud and often. Unfortunately people just stumble upon it at orientations or visits. This is a huge deal and I'm proud of it.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

In Fall 2022, Ole Miss had 2,169 students from the above states. State had 1,241. 49.9 percent of Ole Miss’s students are non-residents; State’s, 36.8 percent. This paragraph’s data is from

http://www.mississippi.edu/research/downloads/2022enrollmentbook.pdf (check out page 16)

State had better be glad they recruit Alabama well.

You didn't mention the other huge reason states are all-in on stealing students from other states. As you note, if your area isn't growing you first and foremost have to put the butts in seats to keep the lights on. There's been a rash of small school consolidation/closings because of a shrinking population, and now we're seeing it at some of the bigs - Uni of West Virginia circling the drain is a sign of things to come.

But the huge advantage for state schools in recruiting out of state is they can charge out of state tuition. If you look out west at the schools that figured this out a decade ago, they sunk a ton into high-end student accommodations and services and then went after the rich California kids that couldn't get into USC or UCLA, and its worked pretty well. It looks like Ole Miss has pursued a similar strategy focusing on rich kids from GA and TN that couldn't get in to UTK or UGA - both are now hugely competitive for in-state kids to get into and particularly to get anything above lottery money if they do manage to get accepted.

If you want to see what this resort U looks like, next time you're in Knoxville take a drive through UTK. They've poured an ungodly amount of money into high-end student living, aimed squarely at attracting out of state cash cows to fund the university.

Ole Miss found a niche in attracting Lost Cause confederates to send their kids to a town and school that likes to pretend its still 1861.

 

[Mr. Cook]

You didn't mention the other huge reason states are all-in on stealing students from other states. As you note, if your area isn't growing you first and foremost have to put the butts in seats to keep the lights on. There's been a rash of small school consolidation/closings because of a shrinking population, and now we're seeing it at some of the bigs - Uni of West Virginia circling the drain is a sign of things to come.

But the huge advantage for state schools in recruiting out of state is they can charge out of state tuition. If you look out west at the schools that figured this out a decade ago, they sunk a ton into high-end student accommodations and services and then went after the rich California kids that couldn't get into USC or UCLA, and its worked pretty well. It looks like Ole Miss has pursued a similar strategy focusing on rich kids from GA and TN that couldn't get in to UTK or UGA - both are now hugely competitive for in-state kids to get into and particularly to get anything above lottery money if they do manage to get accepted.

If you want to see what this resort U looks like, next time you're in Knoxville take a drive through UTK. They've poured an ungodly amount of money into high-end student living, aimed squarely at attracting out of state cash cows to fund the university.

Ole Miss found a niche in attracting Lost Cause confederates to send their kids to a town and school that likes to pretend its still 1861.

Fair and solid points. Consolidation / closures are inevitable in today's higher education. More importantly, you tie the university in with economic development (and rightfully so). Not intended to be snarky, but just curious: In your opinion, what would MSU's / Starkville's niche(s) be?