The Stillers have their worst defense in decades and a 39-year-old hobbling quarterback.

[Erial_Lion]

You don't seem to understand statistics. You cannot really equate one powerball ticket to being a 49% chance. Tell me how if you think that is true. ONe powerball ticket is basically a one in 350 million chance (something like that). All you need is one winning ticket. IT is foolish tothink you have a49% chance of winning the Powerball.

I understand statistics extremely well…I was using an analogy to show that the 49% by itself, without the rest of the context, is virtually meaningless. Early in the game, the .98 expected points means something. Later, it’s much less important when factoring in the other things impacting your decision.

Hence why when you’re down 14 and score a TD late, it’s another spot where going for two is the right play…some coaches are finally catching onto it too.

 

[Mufasa94]

Should always go for two if you’re down 15 or 16 before the TD (or 22, but pretty much no one does the right thing there) and it’s getting later in a game where the remaining possessions will be limited.

Waiting until the final score only makes sense if it’s pretty much guaranteed you’ll only get one more possession (and even then, I wouldn’t, but at least it’s more of a gray area).

I was originally just saying if you aren’t going to do it at 16, you shouldn’t do it at 9. Failures by both requires 2 possessions to be had. I’d say 9 is the worst time of those the Steelers were presented with.

Disheartening to a team? One cannot definitely say, but the fact is the the only Viking score following a Steelers score occurred quickly after the failed attempt.

Just a head scratcher of a decision.

 

[PSUForever]

Yep. When you get to the Steelers as much as I’m proud as a psu fan and alumni all bets are off with allegiance to your school. Heck I’ve rooted for the players from Ohio state playing for the Steelers far more. Lol
He has to make that catch.
He fumbled that catch vs Detroit which would have put them in field goal range. Did you notice that it was Detroit’s owarwye that knocked it out. Talk about happy and pissed at the same time.

He has the ball then an instant later it is knocked out. It was bang bang. It's not like he had the ball even for a second to gather it in and start securing it. The DB punches it out immediately after it hits his hands. Guys lose possession of the ball when they have full control are running and it is punched at by the defender so to expect him to hold on to the ball as it is punched right after he catches a pass and is hit by 2 guys on either side is unreasonable. Give the guy a break. He always plays hard, has a huge heart and a ton of talent. Glad he is a Steeler and I loved him as a Penn Stater.

 

[AvgUser]

I understand statistics extremely well…I was using an analogy to show that the 49% by itself, without the rest of the context, is virtually meaningless. Early in the game, the .98 expected points means something. Later, it’s much less important when factoring in the other things impacting your decision.

Hence why when you’re down 14 and score a TD late, it’s another spot where going for two is the right play…some coaches are finally catching onto it too.

Say what?

If you are down by 14, you need two TDs. That's 12 pts. The expected value of going for two is 0.98. Therefore the expected score will be 14 to 13.96. If my math is correct, you never expect to get to the 14 pts based up the analytics.

If you see it another way, please do explain.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Say what?

If you are down by 14, you need two TDs. That's 12 pts. The expected value of going for two is 0.98. Therefore the expected score will be 14 to 13.96. If my math is correct, you never expect to get to the 14 pts based up the analytics.

If you see it another way, please do explain.

The expected winning % is more important than the expected points. In the example of going for 2 when you score after being down 14, here is the math…

We’ll use your 49% as the chances of converting a 2 point conversion. To make it easy, we’ll assume any extra points are made. And we’ll assume overtime is a 50-50 proposition. And we’ll also assume that we score the 2 touchdowns we need.

If we kick both extra points, our chances of winning are 50% (odds of winning in overtime).

If we go for 2 and convert it after the first TD, we’ll kick the extra point after the second. So, we’ve got a 49% chance of winning this way (odds of making the 2 point conversion).

If we fail on the conversion, we’ve also got the opportunity to go for 2 after the second touchdown. The odds of missing the first and making the second are 24.99%. That would tie it up, then we’d need overtime to win it (we said that’s 50%), so the overall odds of winning in this scenario are about 12.5%.

We fail on both conversions and we lose.

But, that means our chances of winning by kicking the extra points are 50%, while the chances of winning when going for 2 are 61.5% (adding the 49% and 12.5%).

So while your expected points may drop very slightly while going for 2, you’re increasing your chances of winning.

 

[PSUJam]

Repeat after me: Pitt is Penn State's little brother. Agree?

@Karl_Racki

 

[Karl_Racki]

Repeat after me: Pitt is Penn State's little brother. Agree?

Absolutely and always will be.

 

[Woodpecker]

That is not what Imm saying. Erial claimed that "analytics" says to go for two. The stats say that you have a less than 50% chance. Yes. you will make some. BUt, more than 50% of the time you will fail. Your expected value' on 2-pt conversions is only 0.98 pts. doint it mid-third-quarter seems ill-advised.

Now, if you are down by 8 there is only one way to make up the 8 points (or the two extra points if oyu scoe the TD). That is to go for two. Here again, the stats i googled state that you will fail more than half the time. At that point in the game, it is better to take the 1 point and wait for the next opportunity to try and tie the game with a nurture 2-pt conversion

I'm sorry if I'm obtuse. First, nothing was said about the 3rd quarter. In fact, I'm a big proponent of not going for 2 too early - you end up giving a point away that you may need later. However, later in the game, if you are down 15 and may only get 2 more possessions, I think you should go for 2. You need one two-pointer sooner or later and the percentages will be the same whether you go sooner as later. I see the thinking of staying within one score for as long as you can but there is no more reason to think you will make it later if you can't make it sooner. If you can get 2, get it first; if you can't, why wait until later to fail? If you fail the first time, you have longer to implement the strategy needed to make up for it.

 

[LionJim]

I'm sorry if I'm obtuse. First, nothing was said about the 3rd quarter. In fact, I'm a big proponent of not going for 2 too early - you end up giving a point away that you may need later. However, later in the game, if you are down 15 and may only get 2 more possessions, I think you should go for 2. You need one two-pointer sooner or later and the percentages will be the same whether you go sooner as later. I see the thinking of staying within one score for as long as you can but there is no more reason to think you will make it later if you can't make it sooner. If you can get 2, get it first; if you can't, why wait until later to fail? If you fail the first time, you have longer to implement the strategy needed to make up for it.

Yeah, timing is everything.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I'm sorry if I'm obtuse. First, nothing was said about the 3rd quarter. In fact, I'm a big proponent of not going for 2 too early - you end up giving a point away that you may need later. However, later in the game, if you are down 15 and may only get 2 more possessions, I think you should go for 2. You need one two-pointer sooner or later and the percentages will be the same whether you go sooner as later. I see the thinking of staying within one score for as long as you can but there is no more reason to think you will make it later if you can't make it sooner. If you can get 2, get it first; if you can't, why wait until later to fail? If you fail the first time, you have longer to implement the strategy needed to make up for it.

Exactly…find out sooner if you need 1 more score or 2…it’ll change your clock management/play calling, help you determine if it’s worth it to kick a FG, know if you can still punt, etc. Though announcers love to refer to an 8 point deficit as a “one score game”, it’s much different than trailing by 7.