This Severe Threat Sponsored by Whitesnake

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Because Here We Go Again.

Still a little early to talk specifics but there's two teams. Team Euro is for a very significant severe weather outbreak. Team GFS is for a less potent outbreak. For what it's worth the SPC is on team Euro.

 

[SteelCurtain74]

Will this happen in the Still of the Night?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Will this happen in the Still of the Night?

As of right now I would say a good chance. I tried to come up with another good song reference but had a mental fart.

 

[mcdawg22]

As of right now I would say a good chance. I tried to come up with another good song reference but had a mental fart.

Is This Love if severe weather an addiction?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Is This Love if severe weather an addiction?

As I walk out the door I do tell my family Here I Go Again.

 

[aTotal360]

David Coverdale is a real prick.

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

Because Here We Go Again.

Still a little early to talk specifics but there's two teams. Team Euro is for a very significant severe weather outbreak. Team GFS is for a less potent outbreak. For what it's worth the SPC is on team Euro.

During morning or evening commute? May have to take it Slow and Easy.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

David Coverdale is a real prick.

He did block me on Twitter for agreeing with him so I I might have to agree with you.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

SPC will Slide It In with an enhanced this weekend.

 

[hdogg]

On the wings of the storm?

 

[Dogpatrol]

Waiting for these storms does Kick Start my Heart.

 

[notoriousD_O_G]

David Coverdale is a real prick.

How can you say that? Do you even know him personally?**

 

[Bobby Ricigliano]

This is what I’ve heard as well.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

looking at the 10 day on WU, I'm assuming today/tonight is the Easter Cool Snap? A little early, but you can count on it erry year.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Upgrade to enhanced. All modes of severe weather looking possible.

 

[Mr. Cook]

At least "no one ever sees your tears when you're cryin' in the rain"

Upgrade to enhanced. All modes of severe weather looking possible.

Courtesy of Headbangers' Ball

 

[ababyatemydingo]

David Coverdale is a real prick.

Can attest, first hand. This is accurate

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

looking at the 10 day on WU, I'm assuming today/tonight is the Easter Cool Snap? A little early, but you can count on it erry year.

This should be it, yes.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Upgrade to enhanced. All modes of severe weather looking possible.

Can't find "enhanced" for Weather Underground?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Severe threat area has expanded north and east. Significant severe event now looking likely.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

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[Hugh's Burner Phone]

The NAM is starting to pick up on the Wednesday event and the early returns are not looking good. Especially for AR and western MS. The significant tornado parameter is maxing out starting that afternoon and also showing discrete supercells. Being as this is the first run of one model I'm not going to be making any guesses yet as to how bad it could be but know early enough indications are not good.

 

[SyonaraStanz]

The NAM is starting to pick up on the Wednesday event and the early returns are not looking good. Especially for AR and western MS. The significant tornado parameter is maxing out starting that afternoon and also showing discrete supercells. Being as this is the first run of one model I'm not going to be making any guesses yet as to how bad it could be but know early enough indications are not good.

Is this looking to be more towards the north half of the state or central and south too?

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

The NAM is starting to pick up on the Wednesday event and the early returns are not looking good. Especially for AR and western MS. The significant tornado parameter is maxing out starting that afternoon and also showing discrete supercells. Being as this is the first run of one model I'm not going to be making any guesses yet as to how bad it could be but know early enough indications are not good.

I don't like with the NAM model shows at all on Wednesday. I hope it's really, really off because otherwise it could get really, really bad.

 

[Drebin]

Is this looking to be more towards the north half of the state or central and south too?

Right now it looks to me to be middle and north with the highest risk areas being the delta up into west Tennessee. It's really early though.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

SPC is staying with the enhanced risk for Wednesday. Two things would nto surprise me before Wednesday. The first is that we end up with another moderate risk. The second is that the eastern edge of the threat area is paired back closer to I-55. The mid range models are rapidly weakening the system by midnight across MS and if that verifies then the eastern half of the state just won't see much in the way of severe weather. Right now I am looking at NW MS seeing the worst of things. Basically along and west of a line from Greenville to New Albany.

 

[Tall Dawg]

How about an update around 2:00pm today please. TY.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

How about an update around 2:00pm today please. TY.

Will do. Still some discrepancies between models. One showing completely linear and others showing discrete. Still an enhnaced risk but all modes of severe weather showing as possibly significant.

 

[Seinfeld]

Well last night was an interesting night in Central Arkansas. Got home from my son’s baseball game, and the tornado warnings started hitting around 7:45 or so while we were trying to eat dinner. As the kids were hunkering down, I’m watching the TV and all of a sudden the red box on the radar turned to white. I had never seen that before(apparently nor had the weatherman more than 1-2 times), but it more or less meant that a catastrophic tornado was headed right for us.

Thankfully, what was expected to be a 2-3 mile wide roaring twister just never quite came together like they feared, but let me tell you… I’ve never heard so much fear in these guys’ voices. Good luck to everybody this week because I think we’ve all got more to come

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Upgrade to moderate risk tomorrow for northwestern MS. All modes of severe weather will be possible including the potential for strong to violent tornadoes in the red shaded area. My son has his first baseball game tonight, but I am going to try and get a video briefing made and posted this evening.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Upgrade to moderate risk tomorrow for northwestern MS. All modes of severe weather will be possible including the potential for strong to violent tornadoes in the red shaded area. My son has his first baseball game tonight, but I am going to try and get a video briefing made and posted this evening.

Last night every sounding I made on the NAM and NAM 3K came up PDS TOR. I'm almost afraid to even look at it today.

Yep... still scary

View attachment 24264

View attachment 24265

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Last night every sounding I made on the NAM and NAM 3K came up PDS TOR. I'm almost afraid to even look at it today.

Yep... still scary

View attachment 24264

View attachment 24265

And I don't think the NAM has a very good grasp on this system. Last couple of runs it has taken the storms almost instantly linear and I think, along with the SPC, that storm mode down here will be primarily discrete. That's why they upped the tornado threat to 15% hatched over the delta region.

 

[cfree3434]

And I don't think the NAM has a very good grasp on this system. Last couple of runs it has taken the storms almost instantly linear and I think, along with the SPC, that storm mode down here will be primarily discrete. That's why they upped the tornado threat to 15% hatched over the delta region.

Any idea of the timing of the system?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Any idea of the timing of the system?

Mid afternoon at the River. Late evening and overnight clearing the state.