This Weekend's Scenarios

[615dawg]

We are currently the No. 6 seed in the SEC Tournament. Mathematically we can get to 2. Realistically we can get to 3. Here are the scenarios

Mississippi State is the No. 2 seed IF
Sweep Texas A&M
Missouri takes 2 of 3 from Texas
Georgia takes 2 of 3 from Auburn
Ole Miss takes 2 of 3 from Alabama

OR
Win 2 of 3 from Texas A&M
Missouri sweeps Texas
Georgia sweeps Auburn
Ole Miss sweeps Alabama

Mississippi State is the No. 3 seed IF
Sweep Texas A&M
Georgia Takes 2 of 3 from Auburn
Ole Miss takes 2 of 3 from Alabama

OR
Win 2 of 3 from Texas A&M
Georgia sweeps Auburn
Ole Miss sweeps Alabama

Mississippi State is the No. 4 seed IF
Sweep Texas A&M
Georgia takes 2 of 3 from Auburn OR Ole Miss takes 2 of 3 from Alabama

OR

Win 2 of 3 from Texas A&M
Georgia sweeps Auburn OR Ole Miss sweeps Alabama

 

[CoastTrash]

just win baby

 

[Anon2444666666]

so there's a chance? Statistically, we are going to **** the bed.

 

[patdog]

So basically we’re not getting a top 4 seed. At this point I’d be very happy to hang onto a top 8 seed.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Get swept - we may not host a Regional
Win one - host a regional but not a super
Win 2-3 - we will be national top 8 seed

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

Get swept - we may not host a Regional
Win one - host a regional but not a super
Win 2-3 - we will be national top 8 seed

I think we have to sweep to have a shot at a Top 8 seed and have ole miss beats bama 2-3

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

I think we have to sweep to have a shot at a Top 8 seed and have ole miss beats bama 2-3

This! ^^^

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

I think we have to sweep to have a shot at a Top 8 seed and have ole miss beats bama 2-3

We could use some help from Oregon @ USC, Miami @ Florida State in addition to Ole Miss taking Bama. We will pass A & M and USM in the RPI if we win 2 of 3 at College Station. I think we end up being seed 7-8 if we win 2 of 3 unless we lose to a BAD RPI team in Hoover.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Help me out here, I’m not the best with tiebreakers, wouldn’t we be the 8 seed currently? Tied with Florida and Arkansas and I was under the impression we lose tiebreakers with both.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

If other things fall into place which are very convoluted, State can get a Top 16 host with only 1 win. But a boatload of things must happen. One win at A&M plus a win in Hoover to get to quads might also do it, but since they are posting the Top 32 seeds, Hoover will likely be too late to make hay.

 

[Msuirondawgs]

A deep SEC tourney run would be the insurance maybe if we shart the bed this weekend

 

[ababyatemydingo]

A deep SEC tourney run would be the insurance maybe if we shart the bed this weekend

we don't have enough reliable pitchers for a deep tourney run

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Missed the scenario where the aggies try docking with our guys or grabbing them by the sack

 

[HailStout]

we don't have enough reliable pitchers for a deep tourney run

Unfortunately this is the answer

 

[patdog]

we don't have enough reliable pitchers for a deep tourney run

No one else does either. Despite losing our #1 starter for most of the season we still
Have the 5th best era in conference games & 3rd best overall.

 

[615dawg]

we don't have enough reliable pitchers for a deep tourney run

In a single elimination format, if we can get the double bye a deep run is one win.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

Unfortunately this is the answer

Dam it! I knew we should have been pitching Fingers Sullivan some this year.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

In a single elimination format, if we can get the double bye a deep run is one win.

Yeah there is a scenario where you’re like the 3 seed and not playing until Friday night in Hoover.

Or we could technically still fall out of the Top 8 and have to play Tuesday.

 

[CoastTrash]

This team may play better on the road. This sets up perfectly to poop the bed at home after we beat A&M on the road.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

we don't have enough reliable pitchers for a deep tourney run

We barely have the reliable pitching to take 2 of three from quad 1 teams, but baseball is a funny game.

 

[MagnoliaHunter]

I think we have to sweep to have a shot at a Top 8 seed and have ole miss beats bama 2-3

I may actually throw up to do it, but I will try to cheer for um.

 

[patdog]

I may actually throw up to do it, but I will try to cheer for um.

F that. As someone posted earlier, this team may be better with a road super anyway. They seem to play worse at home.

 

[BioChemDawg]

Warning: Long Post Incoming

Got bored this morning, so did a little math. My apologies if y'all find anything wrong. Caveat that RPI gained/lost will change some with each weekend result.

Best Case Scenario (for State's RPI purposes)

State sweeps A&M
OM sweeps Bama
Miami sweeps FSU
Oregon sweeps USC
Georgia Southern sweeps USM
LSU sweeps Florida

6 State
7 Ole Miss (-13)
8 USC (-74)
9 Bama (-119)
10 FSU (-138)
11 Florida (-199)
12 A&M (-201)
13 Southern Miss (-278)

Bottom teams here aren't particularly accurate because I didn't factor in what the teams behind them would do since it wouldn't matter to State's RPI much.

Worst Case Scenario

A&M sweeps State
OM sweeps Bama
FSU sweeps Miami
USC sweeps Oregon
USM sweeps GSU
Florida sweeps LSU
Nebraska sweeps Minnesota
UGA sweeps Auburn
Wake Forest sweeps Duke

6 USC (+202)
7 FSU (+180)
8 A&M (+123)
9 Ole Miss (+122)
10 UGA (+90)
11 Florida (+71)
12 Nebraska (+52)
13 Southern Miss (+31)
14 Wake Forest (+27)
15 Bama (+16)
16 State

Again, top of this may be a bit inaccurate not accounting for teams 1-5. I don't believe any other team has the capability to catch us to bump us out of the Top 16.


How much help do we need?

Even if we sweep A&M, we need help to get into the Top 8. Assuming all other teams competing with us swept, it would finish something like this.

6 USC (+67)
7 Bama (+52)
8 FSU (+45)
9 State
10 Southern Miss (-105)
11 A&M (-201)

If Bama, FSU, and USC drop 1 game:

6 USC (+20)
7 State
8 Bama (-5)
9 FSU (-13)

If State were to only win 2/3 against A&M, we would need Bama and FSU to drop their series to finish Top 8. Unfortunately, Bama losing their series would leapfrog Ole Miss ahead of us to look something like this.

6 USC
7 Ole Miss
8 State
9 Bama
10 FSU



TLDR - Sweep A&M, and we just need Bama and FSU to drop a game to feel pretty good about Top 8 chances. Only taking 2/3 against A&M likely leaves us out of a national seed.

 

[The Peeper]

Am I the only one that would rather just hang out and watch this weekend and see what happens rather than hash out all the possible what if scenarios, of which, only about 1% will actually come to fruition? That goes for preseason rankings in all sports, bowl projections every damn week during the season, the field for March Madness, etc etc etc I agree w/ CoastTrash comment above, "just win baby". Because, that's all we can do we can't do a damn thing about what everybody else does.

 

[PBRME]

we don't have enough reliable pitchers for a deep tourney run

We don’t have enough consistent hitters for a deep tourney run.

 

[00Dawg]

bowl projections every damn week during the season

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Thursday night update: assuming no Florida choke job here late against LSU, we’ll now be in a three way tie for 5th with UF and Auburn. Arkansas lost to Kentucky so we are now a game clear of them for now.

Still clear as mud and a lot of scenarios in play. I think we could fall to the 9 seed and have to play Tuesday, but it would require a lot of bad happening.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

Thursday night update: assuming no Florida choke job here late against LSU, we’ll now be in a three way tie for 5th with UF and Auburn. Arkansas lost to Kentucky so we are now a game clear of them for now.

Still clear as mud and a lot of scenarios in play. I think we could fall to the 9 seed and have to play Tuesday, but it would require a lot of bad .

Or State can flip last Friday’s script and actually win a close game to get the 2 wins they need to lock up a 10 RPI and wait to see how it plays out. Just get to 17 SEC wins before Hoover!

 

[Dawghouse]

Am I the only one that would rather just hang out and watch this weekend and see what happens rather than hash out all the possible what if scenarios, of which, only about 1% will actually come to fruition? That goes for preseason rankings in all sports, bowl projections every damn week during the season, the field for March Madness, etc etc etc I agree w/ CoastTrash comment above, "just win baby". Because, that's all we can do we can't do a damn thing about what everybody else does.

No sir, you're just old as 17 and don't realize our nation is now full of people with the "tism". A person with the "tism" gets of their joy in analyzing ****. Not that there's anything wrong with that. I have two in my household.

what you need to do is just invite a bunch of old asses over to watch the games and enjoy life. A garage fridge full of beer is the ultimate anti-"tism" I'm aware of.

Do not try to associate with anyone under 40 (I might be off by a few years but better safe than sorry). They don't all have the "tism" but if you invite none you know you're safe.

SPS was your place for a couple decades but it seems we've been infiltrated. Your only recourse now is to talk to your old *** neighbors. Set the rules, no one under 40 allowed for garage beers without a documented military discharge.

 

[615dawg]

No sir, you're just old as 17 and don't realize our nation is now full of people with the "tism". A person with the "tism" gets of their joy in analyzing ****. Not that there's anything wrong with that. I have two in my household.

what you need to do is just invite a bunch of old asses over to watch the games and enjoy life. A garage fridge full of beer is the ultimate anti-"tism" I'm aware of.

Do not try to associate with anyone under 40 (I might be off by a few years but better safe than sorry). They don't all have the "tism" but if you invite none you know you're safe.

SPS was your place for a couple decades but it seems we've been infiltrated. Your only recourse now is to talk to your old *** neighbors. Set the rules, no one under 40 allowed for garage beers without a documented military discharge.

Yeah I enjoy analyzing baseball scenarios and not Harry Potter or Pokémon crap so it could be worse.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

we don't have enough reliable pitchers for a deep tourney run

SEC tournament is irrelevant unless you have to win it to make the NCAA field.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

SEC tournament is irrelevant unless you have to win it to make the NCAA field.

I think it can be relevant for the host bubble and Top 8 bubble too. Particularly this year when a ton of the Top 8 bubble is SEC teams.

 

[She Mate Me]

SEC tournament is irrelevant unless you have to win it to make the NCAA field.

This is simply not true. Vanderbilt very clearly played their way into the #1 national seed winning it last year.

 

[00Dawg]

I think it can be relevant for the host bubble and Top 8 bubble too. Particularly this year when a ton of the Top 8 bubble is SEC teams.

Now that Bama can't be swept by UM (i.e. not much potential separation), I'm actually hoping we get to see them in Hoover so we can get a leg up on them in the National Seed race via a head-to-head win.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Now that Bama can't be swept by UM (i.e. not much potential separation), I'm actually hoping we get to see them in Hoover so we can get a leg up on them in the National Seed race via a head-to-head win.

It would probably be better for that reason if OM won the next two games from them TBH.

Also would maybe help our Hoover seeding.