Thoughts on this round of conference realignment.

[NWADawg]

They are still only pulling $30 mill per year even now, which is on par with the terrible ACC deal that everyone is trying to get out of.

I know it's been discussed on here in the past but how much is each SEC team getting now?

 

[patdog]

I don’t think anyone who bolted to the Big 12 made a bad decision per sé, but the important thing to remember is that none of them are going to be married to them for the long haul. Big 12 appears to be in much better shape over the short term, but that can always change if the SEC or B1G decide to go bigger. They are still only pulling $30 mill per year even now, which is on par with the terrible ACC deal that everyone is trying to get out of.

So, SEC and B1G still have all those Big 12 schools available as gap fillers whenever the need arises.

Cal and Stanford, who knows? I can see them being fine if they just persuade OSU / WSU and some MWC teams to form together for a PAC-XX 2.0, under the condition that they get a larger stake in TV revenue like OU and TX had in the Big 12. That will keep them afloat for the time being. Question is, does the Big 12 want them, and would they be interested? Any more fleeting B1G interest? I think they still have at least some options.

I could see Stanford maybe going independent while it continues to push for a Big 10 invite.

Big 12 should be safe for the long term. There’s just nobody left that would even move the needle for the SEC or Big 10.

 

[ronpolk]

I’m looking at Oregon St and Wazzu and thinking that could be us sooner than we’d like to admit. People will say “charter member” but if conference realignment has taught us anything it’s that these presidents are very good at getting out of what seemed like airtight obligations.

It certainly could be but I think if there was desire to not have us in the conference that would have already happened. Those 2 teams didn’t get in this spot because of their conference didn’t want them, they just were left out when their conference blew up. If the sec blows up, I fully expect state to be in the same spot as Washington state and Oregon state.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I could see Stanford maybe going independent while it continues to push for a Big 10 invite.

Big 12 should be safe for the long term. There’s just nobody left that would even move the needle for the SEC or Big 10.

Regarding Stanford, that’s yet another option they have. Cal, too.

Regarding Big 12, it all depends on the future. They’re probably good for 5-10 years, maybe. But the next round of chaos from the inevitable ACC collapse, whenever it occurs, is going to bring a lot of those teams back into the fold. B1G having only 4 of 18 teams on the West coast and everyone else 2,000 miles away still isn’t a good setup for them. They may need more schools to bridge that gap in the future. And the SEC might need number evening additions after they get whatever they need from the ACC.

Still hard to believe that the the SEC started all this madness with the TX / OU additions. Are we the baddies?

 

[patdog]

Regarding Stanford, that’s yet another option they have. Cal, too.

Regarding Big 12, it all depends on the future. They’re probably good for 5-10 years, maybe. But the next round of chaos from the inevitable ACC collapse, whenever it occurs, is going to bring a lot of those teams back into the fold. B1G having only 4 of 18 teams on the West coast and everyone else 2,000 miles away still isn’t a good setup for them. They may need more schools to bridge that gap in the future. And the SEC might need number evening additions after they get whatever they need from the ACC.

Even if Big 12 does lose 1 or 2 schools (most likely would be Kansas to Big 10 or Okie St or TCU to SEC), they’d still have a solid conference remaining. Long term, it’s probably safer than any conference other than SEC or Big 10.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I know it's been discussed on here in the past but how much is each SEC team getting now?

Last I saw it was in the range of $60-$65 million now for 2023, slight uptick to that in 2024 with TX/OU additions, and big uptick forthcoming when we go to 9 games. But it goes up every year by incremental amounts anyway.

 

[catvet]

@catvet for the loss

That move basically ensured their survival. Not sure if you've noticed, but PAC teams are now begging for Big 12 invites

Just an incredibly stupid take

Only an idiot like you thinks the Cincinnati market put a conference over the top. Isn't it time you changed your name again

 

[MidsouthDawg]

 

[patdog]

That’s a pretty good conference. And pretty geographic with 3 exceptions. For now, #4 behind ACC. If grant of rights can be worked around, they move up to a solid #3. If grant of rights can’t be worked around (odds are still very high in my opinion), who knows what the landscape will look like 10 years from now. I suspect the media rights bubble will have burst by then. So all bets are off.

 

[MidsouthDawg]

That’s a pretty good conference. And pretty geographic with 3 exceptions. For now, #4 behind ACC. If grant of rights can be worked around, they move up to a solid #3. If grant of rights can’t be worked around (odds are still very high in my opinion), who knows what the landscape will look like 10 years from now. I suspect the media rights bubble will have burst by then. So all bets are off.

PAC is imploding in real time, only Stanford, Cal, Washington State and Oregon State are left, and I believe the ACC is on the verge of fracturing, Clemson and FSU want out bad...I think SEC, B1G and Big 12 will be the eventual winners

 

[patdog]

PAC is imploding in real time, only Stanford, Cal, Washington State and Oregon State are left, and I believe the ACC is on the verge of fracturing, Clemson and FSU want out bad...I think SEC, B1G and Big 12 will be the eventual winners

No doubt. We’ll see on the ACC breaking up. I know FSU is trying to bring in private equity firms. But they’re going to want a double digit return in their investment. And if they can’t get around a pretty iron clad grant of rights agreement, I just don’t see the return. And if they can get around it, why do they need private equity? Either way, ACC is toxic and it’s a question of when, not if, it falls apart. I’d rather be in the Big 12 for sure.

 

[Podgy]

Charter member means nothing. It never has, despite the old rumor. But there is ZERO interest from anyone in the SEC in kicking anyone out. That will never happen. Even if the top 30 schools nationwide were to break away (and there’s zero indication that is or will even be considered), we’d still be in a pretty good SEC.

Why would anyone think being a charter member counts for something? Is this like the "but look at our baseball stadium" kind of take? It's not just players but entire teams are now in the portal looking for better deals. Why keep State if it makes less money for the conference than someone else? Ya think there are principles and ethics that matter now in amateur athletics?

 

[Podgy]

That’s a pretty good conference. And pretty geographic with 3 exceptions. For now, #4 behind ACC. If grant of rights can be worked around, they move up to a solid #3. If grant of rights can’t be worked around (odds are still very high in my opinion), who knows what the landscape will look like 10 years from now. I suspect the media rights bubble will have burst by then. So all bets are off.

Hopefully we won't just have players in the portal every year, coaches moving to the highest bidder but also teams in the portal and conferences doing a lot of reshuffling on an annual basis.***

 

[Perd Hapley]

If collegiate athletics was a high school, the SEC would be the first group of popular kids that includes the fun-loving jocks and cheerleaders, plus that one weird but smart kid that’s just always been there (Vandy = Screech).

The B1G would be the second group of popular kids - the refined rich kids whose parents are all friends at the same country club. The group that’s not so secretly jealous of the first group and why everyone likes them so much better….even though they make better grades, drive nicer cars, and were way into Radiohead before anyone else was. So they are always compensating however they can.

The Big 12 is a group of kids who don’t even know each other….who a teacher just assigned to work together on a year-long group project. They have no clue how they got placed together since they have nothing in common, they are just trying to get a passing grade even though its tough as hell to get everyone together after school. Next meeting is at BYU’s house….WVU lives on the complete opposite side of town, doesn’t have a car, and his parents both work late. Only hope of him making it is a ride with his older brother, who has a suspended license and is on house arrest due to multiple priors for crystal meth distro.

Finally you have the PAC 12 (what’s left of it)….who is the Breakfast Club. A group of hopeless individuals who were all stuck in detention together. All trying to figure out what went wrong with their lives to get them where they were….all neglected or left behind or otherwise mistreated by those closest to them. And all of them singing at the top of their lungs towards the B1G, Big 12, and SEC…..”DON’T YOOOOUUUU, FORGET ABOUT ME!!!!”

 

[Perd Hapley]

And pretty geographic with 3 exceptions.

I mean, all those teams are in the United States, so there’s that.

Big 12 looks like somebody handed 20 darts to a guy 5 beers deep, and told him to just throw them at a map of the US. 4 of the darts hit an ocean or Canada / Mexico….so they don’t count. What’s left of them is your new Big 12 conference.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Divisions are dead. In your scenario, you’d effectively have two separate leagues. Whether 16, 18, 20, or more, it’s gonna be permanent plus rotating opponents with top two playing in the championship game.

I just know that the bigger the SEC gets, the fewer times we’ll have to play Bama, Georgia, and LSU over time. I say keep adding till we get to 30 or so.

 

[StumpNewGround]

“Two of these things are not like the other….”

Sorry. Three. My apologies to Sesame Street.

 

[Dawgg]

Only an idiot like you thinks the Cincinnati market put a conference over the top. Isn't it time you changed your name again

It’s not so much that the Cincinnati market put the Big 12 over the top, but think about it like this… when Texas and OU left the Big 12, it was like removing a leg from a 3 legged table.

Adding BYU and the AAC schools was like propping that broken table up with a stack of cardboard boxes. It wasn’t pretty, but it stabilized the table so it was viably a table until a better solution presented itself.

Without those boxes holding it in place, that table would become unusable like the Pac-12 and get pulled apart for parts and/or thrown in the trash.