We do have a lot of ugly losses, and that will hurt. But we've also got a lot more really good wins than any of those teams do. There's very few teams with 4 wins vs top-8 seeds, and a winning record in Q1 games. I think the committee will put more weight on the good wins than the bad losses. How much more is the question.
Today's RPI update
- Thread starter HuntDawg
- Start date
RPI is important, but in baseball, the committee looks at the total package.
I think we are looking at 8 teams for 4 host spots
Indiana State
North Carolina State
Oklahoma State
Duke
Mississippi State
South Carolina
Dallas Baptist
Louisiana Tech
RPI wise we are 6th in this group.
South Carolina's conference record moves up to fifth.
NC State is as close to as lock as you can imagine, so we are in a group of 4 for 3 spots
Indiana State
Oklahoma State
Duke
Mississippi State
Could really use a Texas Tech win over Oklahoma State today.
I think we are looking at 8 teams for 4 host spots
Indiana State
North Carolina State
Oklahoma State
Duke
Mississippi State
South Carolina
Dallas Baptist
Louisiana Tech
RPI wise we are 6th in this group.
South Carolina's conference record moves up to fifth.
NC State is as close to as lock as you can imagine, so we are in a group of 4 for 3 spots
Indiana State
Oklahoma State
Duke
Mississippi State
Could really use a Texas Tech win over Oklahoma State today.
It’s pretty clear that you don’t want us to host, so you can say you were right. You’re one of those types, as everyone on here knows.
We have not done enough to guarantee inclusion. We have not done enough to guarantee exclusion. Wake, East Carolina, Duke, OK State, NC State, and MSU are all in that same boat. 3 will get to host, 3 will not. The committee will do what it does with the information, and will be able to justify whatever they decide, regardless. Unless we win the SEC tournament, that is the boat we are going to be in on selection day. That’s really all there is to it. As of right now, it’s a coin flip.
We are 8-7 vs the RPI top 25.
Other bubble teams:
Wake is 7-11
Duke 9-10
Oklahoma State is 4-2
NC State is 12-6
Dallas Baptist is 7-1
La Tech is 2-1
ECU, OK State, NC State-- will be fine barring a bad loss. No one else on that list can say the same.
The other are a coin flip-- i agree-- i also agree picking any one of the 3 others you listed will be easily justified.
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last year.. the commitee looked at RPI very very very heavily.
UCSB should be added to your list: Their RPI is 10 and are projected to host by every projection around.
Them-- and the top 3 on your list-- will need to stumble.
Florida BTW has gone a crazy 11-17 (28 games) vs the RPI top 25... 17 total games vs the RPI top 10.
5-7 against the RPI top 5.
Do they get in with a 28-27.. and 13-18 SEC record?
Agree. When it comes down to it, surely the committee can look at our body of work vs say, UCSB and if its splitting hairs, a top ranked team in the SEC should win the host. We shall see.
I think it is going to depend on bid stealers for UF. If there are several, they could get left out.
It's probably the single most important factor so why do you give a damn if he posts about it.
Some notable hosts from last few years:
2023 Auburn was 17-13 in SEC and #29 RPI
2022 Florida was 15-15 in SEC and #16 in RPI
2021 Florida was 17-13 in SEC and #26 RPI
2022 Louisville was 18-12 in ACC and #21 in RPI
2021 Miami was 20-10 in ACC and #27 RPI
2022 OkSt was 15-9 in BIG12 and #20 RPI
Recent history shows us if you have a really good conference record in the SEC or another major conference and an RPI that is top 29 you are hosting.
I could only go back to 2020-2021 season but since then every SEC team to have 17 or more conference wins has hosted no matter their RPI.
2021 South Carolina at 16-14 in SEC and #20 in RPI and 2021 UCLA at 20-10 PAC12 and #21 RPI are the only comparable resumes I have seen that did not host. I have yet to find an SEC team with 17+ conference wins and an RPI in top 29 that has not hosted since 2021.
2023 Auburn was 17-13 in SEC and #29 RPI
2022 Florida was 15-15 in SEC and #16 in RPI
2021 Florida was 17-13 in SEC and #26 RPI
2022 Louisville was 18-12 in ACC and #21 in RPI
2021 Miami was 20-10 in ACC and #27 RPI
2022 OkSt was 15-9 in BIG12 and #20 RPI
Recent history shows us if you have a really good conference record in the SEC or another major conference and an RPI that is top 29 you are hosting.
I could only go back to 2020-2021 season but since then every SEC team to have 17 or more conference wins has hosted no matter their RPI.
2021 South Carolina at 16-14 in SEC and #20 in RPI and 2021 UCLA at 20-10 PAC12 and #21 RPI are the only comparable resumes I have seen that did not host. I have yet to find an SEC team with 17+ conference wins and an RPI in top 29 that has not hosted since 2021.
All of this rabble and back and forth bickering is very entertaining but the fact is we are walking the razors edge and the only thing this team can do to improve it's position is continue to win. Losing bad. Winning good. It's just that simple
This isnt accurate. Auburn's RPI was 19 last year
Also I'll have to go back and find the year... but there have been a few 17 win and even 1 18 win sec team that didnt host in recent years.
Make sure you are looking at when they were selected RPI and not where they finished the year RPI as well. All of those teams had better RPIs when selected than where they finished.
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My point about Bama and USC is that we don't automatically assume that spot. They have a better RPI than we do and that matters.
In 2022, 18-12 Arkansas and 17-13 LSU both were sent on the road. Same for us in 2014 at 18-12. RPI was the issue in each instance.
ETA: keep in mind these are all teams with big stadiums so I think that’s worth considering for people who think the Dude holding 15K guarantees us anything.
Right and in 2022: Florida was a host with a 15-15 SEC record.... so the people that think Wake is eliminated due to being 15-15... is also not a sure thing
People think the selection committee looks at conference record a LOT more than they really do. They really don't care much about that. They're looking at overall wins, losses, and schedule.
I think conference record matters in terms of how hosts are separated within the conference. Thats why Alabama and SC dont really matter, they are too far down, however if either were 16-14 to our 17-13, i think it would matter.. I also think the 500 mark in conference plays a part in whether you are host worthy.....
however I dont think they say this team won 17 sec games, and this team won 15 ACC games-- therefore the 17 game winner is the host.
Believe that Florida team lost in the finals of the SEC tourney so a good week in Hoover definitely helped them.
I think what hurts SC and AL more is their 13-18 and 13-19 Q1 record. Which is correlated to a fair extent with their conference record, but not quite the same. They get a big RPI boost from their brutal schedules. But at some point, you have to win a decent percentage of those games.
Stupid question, but does baseball weight recent performance the way the basketball selection committee does (or at least used to; obviously have only had a few reasons to pay attention over the past decade). We had a bad loss to central arkansas on April 2nd. A bad loss on March 12 to USA.
The other bad losses were in February (unless you count MIssouri, which obviously wasn't a good loss but not sure going 2-1 against them is really a mark against us). Obviously there are fewer opportunities for bad losses once conference starts, but do our bad losses really look worse than other bubble teams, and to the extent they do, do those February losses get discounted some considering how we performed in the second half of the season.
Anyone know what the ranking is based on. Not the word salad explanation it the calculation.
They talked about it during a softball game I watched. They said it takes into account the RPI stuff along with margin of victory. So getting run ruled hurts you more than losing by 1. I'm sure there is more than just margin of victory. The lady talking about it said it will eventually take the place of rpi because it covers more metrics.
Yeah I totally missed 2022 LSU although they had a losing record against Q1. Auburn was 29 after tournament.
It's pretty 17ing telling that this is a metric they like, which takes into account more things than RPI, and UCSB is 34th in it vs 10th in RPI, while we are 11th in KPI and 22nd in RPI.
That is a massive difference when you're trying to parse out who's who.
It's not hard to figure out who these teams are, but try to forget. Looking at this, who is the first choice as a possible host between the two...
Like it was said somewhere else. Us, wake, Duke.. honestly a coin flip, you can justify each
eben if that snippet. One has played a tougher schedule both in and ooc and has a worse quad 1 record. The other has some bad losses. What do you weigh more?
what’s clear is all 3 teams have a chance to continue to better their resume and all 3 teams need help.
My worry and ask ….. we sre currently the 9th best team metrically in the conference. at some point does that count against us?
if lsu runs the table… which would include wins over 3 more high rpi teams… they’d be 41-20 with a top 15 RPI… do they host?
if lsu runs the table… which would include wins over 3 more high rpi teams… they’d be 41-20 with a top 15 RPI… do they host?
I again can’t get past the 13-17 regular season SEC record for LSU or SC. There is zero precedent that I know of for a team with that kind of regular season league record hosting. Regardless of how they did in the SEC tourney.
I concur. But precedents are being broken. If either win it, and it looks like one is going to have a very good chance at it…
i don’t think south Carolinas reume is worthy but lsu?
41-20, have 18 sec wins, 11 quad 1 wins. RPI would probably be 13-15 range…. Would for sure be a test of how much that regular season record matters
We'll get a host site and everyone will go wild. Then USM will be the two seed and booty holes will get tighter than Jordan with the bags full.
Win tonight and you’ve at worst put a lot of pressure on the other host bubble teams to not slip up.
We will keep playing even if we lose tonight, so I don't see how a loss tonight = no host.
I know it means nothing, but we were a host to a lotta folks before the loss to Mizzou.
Wins over UM and the faux Aggies should offset that.
We're hosting bitches...
Maybe
Wins over UM and the faux Aggies should offset that.
We're hosting bitches...
Maybe
We had something like 21-22 total SEC wins in 2012. Still didn’t host, because sites were decided before the last few games in the conference tourneys. LSU and USC have no chance. None.
Yea, I think it’s been clear in basketball and baseball that the committees are already slotting teams in before the last day or two of conference tournament games and they don’t affect much unless someone steals a bid. That or they take the illogical position that they’re not going to be swayed by one or two games compared to the whole season, which is stupid because the first two games of the season certainly count in full
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