While I don’t disagree that you need the talent, I will say that great coaching has a major impact too. I think you are discounting who the coach is a bit too much. Otherwise, all the wealthy schools would have to do is buy enough players and book their trips to the tournament.
For example, Marshall had a grand total of 3 players at Wichita State who got legitimate playing time in the NBA. Ron Baker and Fed VanVleet were/are in the league and were on the same WSU squad but no one was recruiting them in high school. They developed at WSU. Marshall was there for 13 years. There were no playoffs in his last year (COVID). So out of 12 years, he won the NIT, then went to the NCAA tournament 7 years in a row (Sweet 16 and a Final 4 and an undefeated season other than the tournament loss). Prior to WSU while at Winthrop, he went to the NCAA tournament 7 out of 9 years. They didn’t have better recruiting at Winthrop either. They of course were in a lesser conference but all of his competition was dealing with the same limitation of being in a lesser conference for recruiting.
I actually think we have decent players right now. We just don’t have much of a “team” and our coaching is average.
I agree with a good bit of that, but Wichita State vs. MSU isn’t really a valid comparison. 3 NBA players there is probably as many or more than any other school in their conference. Hell, has MSU had that many that got anything more than a cup of coffee between Erick Dampier / Dontae Jones and now?
The biggest impact that a new coach can have is changing us over to a more exciting brand of basketball….particularly on offense. That’s one thing we need to get recruiting rolling. We do have a bunch of decent players, but none that are elite in any area of their game. We don’t have an inside or outside threat on offense that delivers consistently. We don’t have a lockdown defender on defense. We don’t have a guy who can go out and snag 10 boards against the best big men in the SEC.
What we do have is depth, but the style of play we insist on using completely prevents us from taking advantage of it. We should be running teams up and down the court and getting in transition and pressing more with the personnel that we have. But we don’t have an adaptable coach or assistants. Thats the real problem….in today’s college basketball there aren’t going to be very many Power 5 teams that are ever starting a lineup full of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year players in their program. At the highest level of MBB, development is all but dead. Its all about getting the most talent you can in every offseason into your program, being prepared every single year to potentially have 3-5 new starters, and being able to quickly implement whatever system works best for those players. That’s why Howland’s best years are behind him….he thrived when he got talented guys who were fully bought into his system and refined by their 2nd or 3rd year, but that’s not a luxury that anybody has anymore.