For those that are interested, I found this thread really informative.
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War Analysis
- Thread starter CookieMonster.sixpack
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I read this yesterday. It's pretty good. I think the Russians, or at least Putin, thought the Ukranian Army (at least in part) would join forces with them. That was big miscalculation if so. It does appear the Russians are starting to take the gloves off and fight more in their usual way. It's about to get ugly.
This leads me to a (maybe dumb) question. The West is doing a lot of stuff, much of which is anticipated to cause the Russian people to turn on Putin. Is there a possibility that this may be a "miscalculation" also and that instead they may rally around Putin and become more nationalistic and defiant to the rest of the world ?
One more thing in a long list of total unknowns. That video here yesterday showed just how interwoven all those areas to Russia in general. It's just hard to know anything.
All we do know is that Putin will do whatever is necessary to further his/Russia's interests.
I’ve thought the same. Also, the world sanctioned Germany into poverty post WWI and that helped Hitler rise to power.
I think the West is positioning itself in ways that make it appear they care about Ukraine, but are using it as negotiation with Russia for better pricing. It seems that many of the sanctions imposed are basically a slap on the wrist. There are loopholes to make sure the exchange of energy isn’t hindered. Yes, the west is supplying some weapons to Ukraine, but Russia doesn’t care if a few more of their peasant infantry die. This lets the west save face with their citizens while not doing much in the grand scheme of things.
I think the West is positioning itself in ways that make it appear they care about Ukraine, but are using it as negotiation with Russia for better pricing. It seems that many of the sanctions imposed are basically a slap on the wrist. There are loopholes to make sure the exchange of energy isn’t hindered. Yes, the west is supplying some weapons to Ukraine, but Russia doesn’t care if a few more of their peasant infantry die. This lets the west save face with their citizens while not doing much in the grand scheme of things.
There's at least anecdotal evidence that the Russians are not rallying around Putin. I think that's why he enlisted the help of the Chechens and why he's aligning with Belarus. The streets are flooded every night in St. Petersburg and Moscow with war protests - and there, you get thrown in jail for protesting.
The entire world is rallying around Ukraine. It makes me want to throw up when I hear the Biden administration claim that he's responsible for this, because he's not. The fact that Putin moved on a sovereign nation is what's responsible for it. Public sentiment is not on his side, from all political ideologies. Most importantly, history won't be on his side, either.
I know this is horrible to say but how do we know the news we're getting out of Russia is correct ? Don't get me wrong, I pray it is but...
Their currency is in free fall. That's going to bite hard. I spent a couple of days in St. Petersburg back in 2012. I always bring back some of the local currency whenever I go overseas for a souvenir. From Russia I have a few coins and a couple of 100 ruble notes. One of those notes was worth a little over $3 when we got back. It's worth about 87 cents at the moment. A lot of that drop has been fairly recent.
One other thing: It really doesn't matter whether the people rally around Putin or not. They have no say in it. There are only a few people who MIGHT could bring him down.
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Well, right now, you can't fully trust the news you're getting from anywhere. I'm just going by video I've seen of people in the streets protesting.
Hasn't that already happened? The fall of the Soviet Union and the aftermath and poverty of all that brought Putin to power, and now he's begun his Hitler moment. The only difference is that Hitler had the benefit of propaganda, which isn't nearly as effective in this day and age of social media. Media was exponentially easier to control in the 30s.
He's been over there trying to stabilize birth rates and training kids with guns and such for the last 20 years. Hitler youth type stuff. But again, it just doesn't play nowadays like it did back then. These kids know Ukraine is about flimsy ego and money stuff. There's a reason he's having to pay mercs.
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Information during conflict is difficult to get right, even if you are trying to shoot for the truth.
The narrative in this war thus far seems to favor Ukraine and the west. Very much unlike what happened during Putin's invasions of Georgia, the Crimea, and the Donbas region. That probably has a lot more to do with the Western news cycle and what they were pushing, particularly here.
If the war gets really ugly, and it looks like it will, it will be interesting to see how the narrative changes or is exploited by either Putin or the West and to what end.
No one wants to give Biden any credit, but his Dept, of Defense and Diplomatic core have orchestrated quite a bit of this: pressuring/convincing the new German Chancellor to make some truly enormous sacrifices. And the NATO is benefitting from a host of recently arrived U.S. military advisors and tech operatives.
Wish the U.S. could do more and take Putin out, but we won't. At this point, Putin is probably pissed off enough to take the whole of the Ukraine and not just stop at the Dniper. He may go ahead and take Moldova, since he won't get another chance.
Then the real slog begins for him and the people of Russia. The sanctions, if the West sticks to them, are gonna be killer.
The narrative in this war thus far seems to favor Ukraine and the west. Very much unlike what happened during Putin's invasions of Georgia, the Crimea, and the Donbas region. That probably has a lot more to do with the Western news cycle and what they were pushing, particularly here.
If the war gets really ugly, and it looks like it will, it will be interesting to see how the narrative changes or is exploited by either Putin or the West and to what end.
No one wants to give Biden any credit, but his Dept, of Defense and Diplomatic core have orchestrated quite a bit of this: pressuring/convincing the new German Chancellor to make some truly enormous sacrifices. And the NATO is benefitting from a host of recently arrived U.S. military advisors and tech operatives.
Wish the U.S. could do more and take Putin out, but we won't. At this point, Putin is probably pissed off enough to take the whole of the Ukraine and not just stop at the Dniper. He may go ahead and take Moldova, since he won't get another chance.
Then the real slog begins for him and the people of Russia. The sanctions, if the West sticks to them, are gonna be killer.
This is a really interesting comment. It makes sense that the increase in media outlets makes propaganda more difficult to execute successfully. At the same time, we currently live in a world where truth and reality are constantly in doubt due to intentional disinformation and confirmation bias. Propaganda is very much alive and well right now- this board is living proof that many people latch onto a narrative and actively seek out supporting 'evidence' of their beliefs.
It may not be as effective in the current day as it was 90 years ago, but it has managed to completely divide society so it sure is still working.
I get that but it also depends on how you view it. I think it would be very tough to convince a whole country, any country, to follow one person's demands. Every country all over the world has all types of people, and social media breeds the worship of 'self' so any opinion is easy to find. Therefore, it's very hard to unite. It also matters how many 'teams' are available - for instance in America we have D and R. I'm sure this is easier to evade in a dictatorship due to fear and absolute power but again - internet/social media. People may be afraid of you, but they damn sure don't have to agree with you. Pockets of insurgence will exist when you do **** that isn't universally accepted.
In 1930, societal pressure and shame were stronger than ever. So maybe it's not just social media and internet that created this independence era or whatever, if you will. There are pros and cons to all different situations. I hear people all the time talk about the lack of testosterone in men.....however that decline may help avert wars too.
I don't know, trying to make the best of the situation.
Yes that is probably true- right now propaganda exists in spades, but it is not unifying and not singular in its message. That is much different from what was used back in WW1 and WW2 which were much more singular narrative and unifying messages.
The only way a whole country will follow one person's demands right now is fear of death based on good reason to fear the person. Even then, it probably wouldnt work in many places.
Sorry, but this is incorrect. The EU and NATO has been critical on this. Germany straight out rebuffed the US on SWIFT. It took NATO pressure to make that happen.
Biden is leading from behind on this.
It appears to me that Americans are way more likely to latch onto conspiracy theories/believe propaganda than they were during the cold war. Growing up, we had a very clear view of what communist propaganda was and the only ones likely to buy into it were the news starved communist countries. It's comical that Putin even employees the old school brand of propaganda that he does and doesn't realize how stupid he looks for doing so. Literally nobody inside or outside of Russia believes him.
Meanwhile, Americans are a lot less likely to challenge much of what we are fed from our news source(s) of choice. Critical thinking is not a thing any longer, if it ever really was. Logic and reason do not rule the day.
Meanwhile, Americans are a lot less likely to challenge much of what we are fed from our news source(s) of choice. Critical thinking is not a thing any longer, if it ever really was. Logic and reason do not rule the day.
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I mean if they could sanction any news, it most certainly would be video of people protesting Putin's war.
There are much deeper reasons for all of the buildup to this point. The US/RUS long game in Ukraine has been around for decades now, but they are unfortunately a buffer state with no leverage to back how many chips they put down before rolling the political dice between two world powers.
Everyone needs to read this article for a little refresher in the geopolitical background - including actions by Putin, Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden - that got us to this point:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraines-deadly-gamble
Everyone needs to read this article for a little refresher in the geopolitical background - including actions by Putin, Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden - that got us to this point:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraines-deadly-gamble
Not remotely. He's just not beating his chest loud about it.
US intelligence and Biden being publicly vocal over the last couple of months staying ahead of Putin despite repeated denials from the Kremlin created a sense of urgency on the NATO side that allowed swift reaction once Putin committed. It's developed a story that Russia has been planning, and lying about, their attack on the entirety of Ukraine as completely obvious with no rationalization for it. Putin has been outplayed massively here and Biden is a leading part of it.
I'm sure there are things to nit, but everything Putin is seeking out is playing out in reverse. He will still take Ukraine, but he will face years of resistance there and at home for years to come if he's lucky enough to not be taken down - all without even firing one missile from a NATO country.
My prayer now is that he doesn't press the red button.
US intelligence and Biden being publicly vocal over the last couple of months staying ahead of Putin despite repeated denials from the Kremlin created a sense of urgency on the NATO side that allowed swift reaction once Putin committed. It's developed a story that Russia has been planning, and lying about, their attack on the entirety of Ukraine as completely obvious with no rationalization for it. Putin has been outplayed massively here and Biden is a leading part of it.
I'm sure there are things to nit, but everything Putin is seeking out is playing out in reverse. He will still take Ukraine, but he will face years of resistance there and at home for years to come if he's lucky enough to not be taken down - all without even firing one missile from a NATO country.
My prayer now is that he doesn't press the red button.
How many would give their life in defense of their preferred propaganda? That is the difference. People generally will not do that unless one, their way of life is threatened, or two, you pay them.
They will rally if NATO gets physically involved
I think the dynamic now is that Ukraine, despite very different in a civics context, is still enough "Russian" for the Russian citizens to be appalled at what their own leaders are doing Ukraine. Just average Russians and Ukrainians. Ignore the politics and war machine. The masses are still average humans with real emotions not tarnished by an actual hate of a neighbor. I'm basing that on the protest videos, abandoned Russian equipment, and human nature - nothing else.
Now if the UK, US, or NATO allies that are less culturally similar and separated by distance start killing Russian solidiers, all bets are off. There is a fine line to respect from here on out. As much as we could rationalize sending some A10s down that 40 mile line heading towards the west flank of Kyiv, it's too risky.
I think the dynamic now is that Ukraine, despite very different in a civics context, is still enough "Russian" for the Russian citizens to be appalled at what their own leaders are doing Ukraine. Just average Russians and Ukrainians. Ignore the politics and war machine. The masses are still average humans with real emotions not tarnished by an actual hate of a neighbor. I'm basing that on the protest videos, abandoned Russian equipment, and human nature - nothing else.
Now if the UK, US, or NATO allies that are less culturally similar and separated by distance start killing Russian solidiers, all bets are off. There is a fine line to respect from here on out. As much as we could rationalize sending some A10s down that 40 mile line heading towards the west flank of Kyiv, it's too risky.
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Drebin, don't let your hatred of all things Biden, blind you. You are usually more astute. The EU does not tell Germany what to do. And you are experienced enough to know how NATO works.
Yes, the EU and NATO have been critical and outstanding in its approach so far. And the Biden team has "been leading from behind" THE SCENES.
And, I guess, those of us not fighting it out against the Russian army should be grateful for what has been accomplished during this short time, thanks in large part to Russian military miscalculations and the willingness of the Ukrainians to fight like a a bunch of badass mother17ers.
The West's efforts up until now are not enough to win the immediate battle for Ukraine, but it may eventually win the war.
way too risky at the moment. Dropping some "surrender dorothy" pamphlets as a warning would be interesting, however. I would doubt the Russian conscripts have the stomach for what seems a fratricidal conflict.
Pretty good. Be interesting to know who are the top institutional holders in Shell & Exxon Mobile. Also interesting that Putin took his Central Bank out of the Global CB System a while back too.
Do you happen to have an article/link that could give a more accurate historical view of how we got where we are ?
Assuming this is for me....
Wikipedia would be better, and that's not implying Wikipedia is good....
It's ridiculous on so many levels. Leaving aside the ridiculous "Russiagate" framing, for one, yes it would be great if a buffer state could stay neutral, but it's missing the kinda important point that the great powers DON'T WANT the buffer states to be neutral. They will constantly make demands and requests, leaving the buffer state in the difficult position of constantly dancing a 2-step to try to keep both happy.
To make it even more ridiculous though, the article ignores its own reasoning to whitewash the Trump-Ukraine fiasco. By Trump extorting Ukraine for military aid (kinda convenient that it leaves out that it was military aid intended to defend against a Russian invasion), he put that buffer state in the exact scenario the article decries, but the article ignores it. Trump put Ukraine in the position of taking sides in internal US politics, put them up to assist in a bogus political hit job, to receive the military aid. Kinda obvious that the article should address that....if it was a serious piece, and not propaganda.
You completely glossed over the section where the Clinton campaign employed Ukraine to lend credibility to a Russian collusion accusation. And Ukraine bought into it hook, line and sinker because they wagered Hillary would win and that their loyalty would curry favor with the US. And when she didn't, they found themselves in no-mans land. Then the corruption investigations heated up and enter a Ukrainian energy company covering its bets by hiring the son of an American politician. No wonder Trump wants to see how far that corruption goes if it involves the opposition party. So what happens instead? We see a president get impeached for trying to figure out what the US Govt has been doing there these last 10 years.
So I'd say Trump never "extorted Ukraine for military aid" insomuch as he was trying to get Ukraine to cooperate with investigations into corruption which BEGAN with the Clinton campaign (actually with the Obama presidency installing a US friendly government).
So I'd say Trump never "extorted Ukraine for military aid" insomuch as he was trying to get Ukraine to cooperate with investigations into corruption which BEGAN with the Clinton campaign (actually with the Obama presidency installing a US friendly government).
I don’t know, maybe it’s the Gen Xer in me, and I’m sorry I don’t have a degree in geopolitical science, but I always see Russia as bad. Yeah Germany really had some rough spots into the 1940’s but it seems like they have calmed down. Since then Russia has been on the opposite side of us on everything. I’m pretty sure the people aren’t inherently bad but their leadership over the last 80 years seems to push the idea of an empire, and well, empires aren’t really a 21st century thing. We have demonstrated that republic/democracy is the way to go and it seems like they just keep pushing back on that notion. So continue with the nuanced approach of, welllll Russia did this and Ukraine did that, but I’m sticking with Russia is bad, Ukraine wants to be part of a working Global community. I’ll say it again, Russia=bad.
I’m gonna be as diplomatic as I can be here. Have you heard our president speak over the last several months? Nothing I’ve heard from him would lead me to believe that he is ahead of literally anything. Now if you want to attribute something to his staff, fine. But he has not projected strength or competence at any point. I’m hopeful that he (or his staff) can steer us through this unscathed but man I haven’t seen anything that leads me to believe he can.
In 1999 the Ruble collapse and Boris Yeltsin left office paving the way for Putin. He turned it around and was a hero. The Russian economy is going to collapse again. We will see what happens. If he doesn't change course it will be over for him. Even if they do capture the capital the people are going to keep on fighting. The world is going to keep economic sanction on him.
Here’s a really good article
https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/the-wests-green-delusions-empowered?utm_source=url&s=r
Pointing out how the west’s absurd energy policies, led by Germany, paved the way for this.
https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/the-wests-green-delusions-empowered?utm_source=url&s=r
Pointing out how the west’s absurd energy policies, led by Germany, paved the way for this.
Here’s my analysis. We better get our minds right and focus on what is important. 1. Increasing our access to oil/energy 2. Build up our military 3. Cut off all transactions with Russia 4. Dramatically decrease our reliance on China.
The asinine concern over who’s a boy and who’s a girl, who uses what bathroom, masks save lives ******** needs to stop. Covid, at this point, is a cold, and the propaganda associated with it has caused major damage to our nation that was much stronger 2 years ago.
Evil exists in the world and it doesn’t give a 17 about our social justice issues.
The asinine concern over who’s a boy and who’s a girl, who uses what bathroom, masks save lives ******** needs to stop. Covid, at this point, is a cold, and the propaganda associated with it has caused major damage to our nation that was much stronger 2 years ago.
Evil exists in the world and it doesn’t give a 17 about our social justice issues.
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