Priority one is to win. Win Saturday and the rest of this post only matters for seeding purposes. Lose to Vandy though, and we may find ourselves nervously watching other results all the way through Selection Sunday.
Should be pretty clear who we are cheering against this weekend - anyone who is a bubble team.
Tennessee over Auburn
Duke over North Carolina
Minnesota over Wisconsin
Maryland over Penn State
Indiana over Michigan
UNLV over Nevada
In the Pac-12, Arizona State-USC is a case of two bubble teams facing off. USC is 50 in the NET today, AZ State is 63. The game is at USC so it's a Q1 game for AZ State and Q2 for USC. If your preference is to pull for teams with a higher projected seed than us, then you are for Arizona State to beat USC. If your preference is to pull for lower projected teams to lose so they don't gain ground on us, you are for USC. I love Bobby Hurley. I hope he finds a way into the tournament, just not at our expense. (Nor do I want to play them.) This one tips off about the time ours ends. If we win, I'll be for Arizona State. If we lose, I will have to cheer for USC.
Basically the same situation happens in the Mountain West, where Boise State (NET 27) plays Utah State (22). Great example of the NET just being one metric because even though Utah State is highly ranked in the NET, they seem to be considered very bubbly by Lunardi, Palm, and Bracket Matrix. Boise State is a 10 seed for Lunardi and a 9 for Palm which seems to be about right. Utah State is Lunardi's fourth team out. Palm only lists four, and Utah State is not on that list so they are at least the 5th team out for him. This game is at Utah State, so losing on the road to a top 25 NET team probably won't hurt Boise too much. Meanwhile Utah State is 0-4 in Q1 and desperate to get their first win in that category. I think Boise State is safely in the tournament so I'll pull for them to deal a kill shot to Utah State.
West Virginia plays host to K-State. Huggins is probably going to get in the tournament, but I'd be fine with him dropping down into the Dayton games while we ascend to the main draw. K-State winning this game helps our chances of that.
Oklahoma State goes to Texas Tech. I think losing the last two to TCU and Kansas have ended the Texas Tech at-large dream, and beating a middling Oklahoma State team at home probably won't get them back in the picture. So we are for Texas Tech to win and deal Oklahoma State another serious blow to their hopes.
Maybe Northwestern and Rutgers is a bubble game? Rutgers took a loss to Minnesota last night that is Q3 by a hair and could fall to Q4 over the next several days. Another loss would not help their case. Northwestern has lost three straight after putting themselves in position to win the Big 10. I think Northwestern is the safer team here as far as getting a bid, so I will pull for them to win and keep Rutgers on the slide down.
College of Charleston has an at-large case from the CAA (Colonial). It's weak, but it's a case. Palm has them in as an at large, Lunardi does not. They tied for their league title with Hofstra but lost the only head to head matchup so Hofstra is the 1 seed in the tournament. Hofstra would not get in without winning the CAA tournament, so pull for Charleston to win it and keep it a one bid league. The CAA tournament starts today, ends Tuesday. Charleston doesn't play until Sunday.
I don't think losing to Houston would hurt Memphis at all. Lose to Memphis and then lose early in the AAC tournament though, then Memphis might be sweating.
I'm sure I missed somebody, so please add to it if I did.
Should be pretty clear who we are cheering against this weekend - anyone who is a bubble team.
Tennessee over Auburn
Duke over North Carolina
Minnesota over Wisconsin
Maryland over Penn State
Indiana over Michigan
UNLV over Nevada
In the Pac-12, Arizona State-USC is a case of two bubble teams facing off. USC is 50 in the NET today, AZ State is 63. The game is at USC so it's a Q1 game for AZ State and Q2 for USC. If your preference is to pull for teams with a higher projected seed than us, then you are for Arizona State to beat USC. If your preference is to pull for lower projected teams to lose so they don't gain ground on us, you are for USC. I love Bobby Hurley. I hope he finds a way into the tournament, just not at our expense. (Nor do I want to play them.) This one tips off about the time ours ends. If we win, I'll be for Arizona State. If we lose, I will have to cheer for USC.
Basically the same situation happens in the Mountain West, where Boise State (NET 27) plays Utah State (22). Great example of the NET just being one metric because even though Utah State is highly ranked in the NET, they seem to be considered very bubbly by Lunardi, Palm, and Bracket Matrix. Boise State is a 10 seed for Lunardi and a 9 for Palm which seems to be about right. Utah State is Lunardi's fourth team out. Palm only lists four, and Utah State is not on that list so they are at least the 5th team out for him. This game is at Utah State, so losing on the road to a top 25 NET team probably won't hurt Boise too much. Meanwhile Utah State is 0-4 in Q1 and desperate to get their first win in that category. I think Boise State is safely in the tournament so I'll pull for them to deal a kill shot to Utah State.
West Virginia plays host to K-State. Huggins is probably going to get in the tournament, but I'd be fine with him dropping down into the Dayton games while we ascend to the main draw. K-State winning this game helps our chances of that.
Oklahoma State goes to Texas Tech. I think losing the last two to TCU and Kansas have ended the Texas Tech at-large dream, and beating a middling Oklahoma State team at home probably won't get them back in the picture. So we are for Texas Tech to win and deal Oklahoma State another serious blow to their hopes.
Maybe Northwestern and Rutgers is a bubble game? Rutgers took a loss to Minnesota last night that is Q3 by a hair and could fall to Q4 over the next several days. Another loss would not help their case. Northwestern has lost three straight after putting themselves in position to win the Big 10. I think Northwestern is the safer team here as far as getting a bid, so I will pull for them to win and keep Rutgers on the slide down.
College of Charleston has an at-large case from the CAA (Colonial). It's weak, but it's a case. Palm has them in as an at large, Lunardi does not. They tied for their league title with Hofstra but lost the only head to head matchup so Hofstra is the 1 seed in the tournament. Hofstra would not get in without winning the CAA tournament, so pull for Charleston to win it and keep it a one bid league. The CAA tournament starts today, ends Tuesday. Charleston doesn't play until Sunday.
I don't think losing to Houston would hurt Memphis at all. Lose to Memphis and then lose early in the AAC tournament though, then Memphis might be sweating.
I'm sure I missed somebody, so please add to it if I did.
