Assume Ole Miss losing the Egg Bowl is off the table because that's what we would all choose.
What is max pain?
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Easily 2+. The more the merrier.
For me going 4-0 and still missing the playoffs would be the most painful for them.
With that said, it depends on who the two losses would be. Lose to Arkansas on the road, where they have not played well and Georgia at home, where they may not be favored, it would suck but not the most painful. Lose to Georgia at home and MSU at home (I'm aware the second loss here is not very likely) would be far more painful for them.
With that said, it depends on who the two losses would be. Lose to Arkansas on the road, where they have not played well and Georgia at home, where they may not be favored, it would suck but not the most painful. Lose to Georgia at home and MSU at home (I'm aware the second loss here is not very likely) would be far more painful for them.
easily win up to the egg bowl with a top ten ranking and then lose to us on some goofy play like the piss and miss or the kick and pick, to knock them out of the playoffs. Not that it could happen, just saying that would be max pain to them.
My vote is for 4-0, but miss the CFP. Kiffins stock will still be high enough to be hired away by Florida.
2 plus is the answer because they have to convince another group of transfers to become Confederates and go back to their boosters for MORE NIL $.
If they win out, they are probably in the CFP. But definitely not guaranteed.
Its pretty hard to see any combination of 11 P4 teams getting selected over any 2-loss SEC team.
What if there are five 10+ win SEC teams? Six? Seven?
What if Notre Dame is in?
What if the ACC and/or the Big 12 are multi-bid leagues?
How many Big Ten teams are in?
Too many scenarios to say 100%.
I think a 10-2 Ole Miss team is in the CFP in about 66.7% of the scenarios.
That can’t all happen, though.
Remember - a 10-2 OM has head to head win over 10-2 (at best) UGA. Only 2 teams could possibly finish higher, Texas / Texas A&M winner, and Tennessee IF they beat UGA, and that puts OM solidly ahead of UGA if so.
Bottom line is they’ll be a Top 4 SEC team at 10-2, and the SEC is getting a minimum of 4 teams in. SEC, B1G, and ND together are getting a minimum of 8 teams.
Tennessee has a much easier road, they can lose to Georgia and will still likely end up with just two Losses. Kentucky, us and Vandy.....
I wasn’t suggesting it would all happen. Not all of it has to happen. The point is there are scenarios in which a 10-2 Ole Miss team doesn’t make it.
They will end up with the weakest SOS in the SEC. In fact, the committee might value 10-2 UGA over 10-2 OM, despite head-to-head. UGA would have wins against Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky* and no bad losses in that scenario. Ole Miss would have one good win and a very bad loss*.
No way. Missouri has the weakest schedule by far. Only 2 decent opponents (A&M and Bama), and both have blown them out. They are the only 10-2 SEC team that wouldn’t be a shoe-in.
LSU and Bama play next weekend, one of them will have 3 losses, minimum.
So take out Mizzou and the loser of that Bama-LSU game. It leaves 6 other SEC teams with possibly only 1 or 2 losses. 2 would play in Atlanta, possibly giving another team a 3rd loss. If, somehow, they all finish with 2 or fewer losses after all that (they won’t), they will all be in the playoff. Toss in 2 or 3 from the B1G/ND, a B12, an ACC, a G5, and a maybe a wild card team from somewhere and that’s your field.
Here’s how I see it:
ACC:
-Miami 12+ wins
-SMU and Clemson 10+ wins
-I’m not even counting Pitt, who is currently 7-0.
Big 12:
-BYU and Iowa State 11+ wins
-Kansas State 10+ wins
Big Ten:
-Oregon 12+ wins
-Penn State and Indiana 11+ wins
-Ohio State 10 or 11 wins
Notre Dame 10+ wins
Washington State 10+ wins
SEC:
-Texas 11+ wins
-Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas A&M 10+ wins
-Alabama OR LSU 10 wins
I don’t think a 10-2 team with a home loss to 5-7 (or worse) Kentucky is a lock.
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I vote 2 or more loses. This is Old Myth, anything else and they will delude themselves into thinking they 'deserved' to be in and are the 'rightful' champions. Hell they'll probably paint 2024 National Champions right next to SEC West champs, if they only lose 1 or less regardless of the actual playoff situation.
You’re making the leagues equal, and they aren’t. Not even close. SEC is king, and the ACC and Big 12 are trash leagues….maybe you already forgot that 13-0 FSU wasn’t even a Top 5 team last year. No way can you say SMU, Clemson, and Kansas State (and Washington State!) get the same treatment with 10 wins as Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas A&M.
There are some specific exceptions, but in general a 1-loss team from the SEC / B1G is going to trump an undefeated team from the Big 12 or ACC. Likewise, a 2-loss team from the SEC / B1G is going to trump a 1-loss team from the Big 12 or ACC. And a 2-loss SEC team is, without question, going to trump a 2-loss team from the Big 12 / ACC. And more often than not, those same rules are going to apply when comparing the SEC to the B1G, too.
ETA: Go take a look at the current strength of schedule rankings. Ole Miss is 11th nationally in SOS. And the current 11 toughest schedules in the whole country are 10 SEC teams, and then Ohio State. 2-loss SEC teams are going to get very favorable treatment.
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I never said the leagues are equal. I wasn’t ranking all of those teams ahead of Ole Miss. I was just showing how there could be a lot of 10+ win teams. I said 10-2 Ole Miss is not guaranteed to make the CFP. In fact, I said they probably would be in because usually enough teams get upset.
The fact is no one knows how the committee will behave because this is the first year of the 12-team CFP. We can all think the SEC is by far the best league, and the SEC still might just get four teams in.
You are speaking in absolutes on something by definition you can’t know.
I don’t know where you got your SOS, but ESPN has Ole Miss at #43 SOS to this point.
An awful Mark Walhberg movie from '08
Great game for its time though.
And I was saying it really doesn’t matter if there are a lot of 10+ win teams (or, more accurately, 0-2 loss teams). If they aren’t in the SEC or B1G, they aren’t likely to slot in above any 2-loss (or less) team from the SEC except for maybe Mizzou….unless they are undefeated.
Perfect example is you listing Washington State. It doesn’t even matter what Washington State does. They are in contention for the G5 autobid….OM isn’t competing with them. No chance of two G5 teams getting in.
You have to come up with 11 resumes from the P4 and ND that could trump a 10-2 OM. I’m saying that’s going to be extremely difficult to do. Definitely nowhere close to 33% of outcomes will facilitate that.
Why would the committee behave any differently? Only change is now they have to pick and rank 8 teams instead of just 4. A lot of the hard work is done for them with the Top 4 teams, it’s actually much easier and more straightforward for them in many ways.
No absolutes. I noted there are few exceptions, and mentioned Mizzou wouldn’t get the same treatment.
Got mine from TeamRankings. A cursory analysis indicates that TeamRankings calculates their ranking off the entire season long FBS schedule (includes current records of teams in future games), whereas ESPN’s is real time and only looks at the results to date and ignores future opponents and those opponents’ records. After all games are played, they should say the same thing. But the TeamRankings version currently paints a more accurate picture of the whole schedule. ESPN version is going to make SEC schedules look weaker than they are because everyone has played a bunch of nonconference cupcakes but hasn’t played all the heavyweights yet.
Example - ESPN shows MSU as the #3 overall SOS primarily because we’ve played TX, A&M, and UGA, and haven’t yet played a UMass team that is winless against the FBS.
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Different from what? Previously, they have selected four teams to participate in the CFP. We've never seen the committee differentiate between the 11th and 12th-ranked teams in the country with a CFP spot on the line. We've never seen how they want to geographically distribute 12 CFP spots. Do they try to spread bids among as many conferences as possible? Or are they fine giving every at-large bid to the SEC and Big Ten?
No one knows the answers to these questions because we've never seen the committee deliberate on these issues.
They are doing the real time rankings week by week, just like always. They are using the same criteria to rank the teams as always. Geography never has mattered for 4 spots, why would it matter for 7 spots, which is essentially all that they are doing.
The only new drama will be how they determine the highest ranked G5 team, but even that does not require them to do anything differently. The highest ranked G5 gets in as at-large, whether they are ranked #1 or #14 or #32 in the final rankings. Conference champs are in automatically regardless of where they fall in the final rankings. They simply rank the teams and the selections will happen automatically from there.
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I maintain that Ole Miss beating Georgia and then losing their next game is max pain among the above scenarios.
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