Assume Ole Miss losing the Egg Bowl is off the table because that's what we would all choose.
What is max pain?
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For me going 4-0 and still missing the playoffs would be the most painful for them.
With that said, it depends on who the two losses would be. Lose to Arkansas on the road, where they have not played well and Georgia at home, where they may not be favored, it would suck but not the most painful. Lose to Georgia at home and MSU at home (I'm aware the second loss here is not very likely) would be far more painful for them.
With that said, it depends on who the two losses would be. Lose to Arkansas on the road, where they have not played well and Georgia at home, where they may not be favored, it would suck but not the most painful. Lose to Georgia at home and MSU at home (I'm aware the second loss here is not very likely) would be far more painful for them.
My vote is for 4-0, but miss the CFP. Kiffins stock will still be high enough to be hired away by Florida.
2 plus is the answer because they have to convince another group of transfers to become Confederates and go back to their boosters for MORE NIL $.
If they win out, they are probably in the CFP. But definitely not guaranteed.
Its pretty hard to see any combination of 11 P4 teams getting selected over any 2-loss SEC team.
What if there are five 10+ win SEC teams? Six? Seven?
What if Notre Dame is in?
What if the ACC and/or the Big 12 are multi-bid leagues?
How many Big Ten teams are in?
Too many scenarios to say 100%.
I think a 10-2 Ole Miss team is in the CFP in about 66.7% of the scenarios.
That can’t all happen, though.
Remember - a 10-2 OM has head to head win over 10-2 (at best) UGA. Only 2 teams could possibly finish higher, Texas / Texas A&M winner, and Tennessee IF they beat UGA, and that puts OM solidly ahead of UGA if so.
Bottom line is they’ll be a Top 4 SEC team at 10-2, and the SEC is getting a minimum of 4 teams in. SEC, B1G, and ND together are getting a minimum of 8 teams.
Tennessee has a much easier road, they can lose to Georgia and will still likely end up with just two Losses. Kentucky, us and Vandy.....
I wasn’t suggesting it would all happen. Not all of it has to happen. The point is there are scenarios in which a 10-2 Ole Miss team doesn’t make it.
They will end up with the weakest SOS in the SEC. In fact, the committee might value 10-2 UGA over 10-2 OM, despite head-to-head. UGA would have wins against Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky* and no bad losses in that scenario. Ole Miss would have one good win and a very bad loss*.
No way. Missouri has the weakest schedule by far. Only 2 decent opponents (A&M and Bama), and both have blown them out. They are the only 10-2 SEC team that wouldn’t be a shoe-in.
LSU and Bama play next weekend, one of them will have 3 losses, minimum.
So take out Mizzou and the loser of that Bama-LSU game. It leaves 6 other SEC teams with possibly only 1 or 2 losses. 2 would play in Atlanta, possibly giving another team a 3rd loss. If, somehow, they all finish with 2 or fewer losses after all that (they won’t), they will all be in the playoff. Toss in 2 or 3 from the B1G/ND, a B12, an ACC, a G5, and a maybe a wild card team from somewhere and that’s your field.
Here’s how I see it:
ACC:
-Miami 12+ wins
-SMU and Clemson 10+ wins
-I’m not even counting Pitt, who is currently 7-0.
Big 12:
-BYU and Iowa State 11+ wins
-Kansas State 10+ wins
Big Ten:
-Oregon 12+ wins
-Penn State and Indiana 11+ wins
-Ohio State 10 or 11 wins
Notre Dame 10+ wins
Washington State 10+ wins
SEC:
-Texas 11+ wins
-Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas A&M 10+ wins
-Alabama OR LSU 10 wins
I don’t think a 10-2 team with a home loss to 5-7 (or worse) Kentucky is a lock.
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