Why do we assume Spence is leaving?
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He walked on senior night and accepted an invite to the senior bowl. I know that doesn't disqualify him from returning but the way he's talking it seems all but certain that he's leaving.
It's just time. He's 23. Been in college 5 years. He's shown the scouts a ton this year. He can make every throw you could ask a QB to make. He's durable and can take hits. He's mobile enough to deal with normal amounts of pressure. He has a good IQ. The only thing he lacked this year is the stats, but anyone who watched knows that is due to the circumstances. No OL, no run game and only one WR who was even semi-reliable.
His post-game comments also make it pretty clear:
"I knew he was a guy I wanted to play for, but I never in a million years thought I would be at South Carolina. It's funny how God works," Rattler said. "(Beamer) leads that locker room like nobody I've seen before. He's got it headed the right direction, and I was just happy to be a part of it. Playing under him on this team, it's been awesome."
This place meant everything to me ... I wanted to be a part of a change in this program, and I feel like I put 110% effort into it every day," Rattler said. "I've built so many close relationships that will be close 10, 20 years down the line. Our QB room is the closest, coolest, realest QB room ever, man. I love those dudes and going to work with them every day."
"I knew he was a guy I wanted to play for, but I never in a million years thought I would be at South Carolina. It's funny how God works," Rattler said. "(Beamer) leads that locker room like nobody I've seen before. He's got it headed the right direction, and I was just happy to be a part of it. Playing under him on this team, it's been awesome."
This place meant everything to me ... I wanted to be a part of a change in this program, and I feel like I put 110% effort into it every day," Rattler said. "I've built so many close relationships that will be close 10, 20 years down the line. Our QB room is the closest, coolest, realest QB room ever, man. I love those dudes and going to work with them every day."
But then there was a question about his immediate future (next season) - I forget how the question was worded/framed, but SR gave a very non-committal answer. Something along the lines of, "I'll let y'all know something on that soon"....
I pretty much assume that he's going, but wouldn't be shocked if he came back. This years' QB draft is stout - maybe he factors that in and waits. Maybe he's betting on himself against any of those other dudes. It will be interesting to watch.
I'm sure Dick Dyer and the guys over at GT would love to know if they have "cap space" for portal season. That's a big one. How many OL can you get with $2M??
Possible. I just don't think it makes much sense for him personally, and maybe for us. I think it would be great in the short term for us, but we'd risk losing QBs to the portal. I don't THINK Sellers would transfer, but you never know these days. In his extremely limited action, he looks to be too good to ride the pine another year.
If I were Rattler, I'd also be wondering if I want the hoopla and circus of going to Norman next year. Or maybe he wants to go back and beat them, but that would nothing short of a divine miracle.
Depends on what his drive is? Go now and get drafted in a lower round by possibly a better team, hold a clipboard for 4 years then get a shot? Come back, try to increase your stock, be a day one pick and get to play? How eager is he to begin his journey? NIL has equalized a lot of the money concerns. To me, that's the decision. If he goes now he's likely taking a pay cut.
Love the guy. I expected some sort of prima donna. Instead, I saw a guy who brought his lunch box to work and put his neck on the line along with everyone else. Didn't mope; didn't point fingers. I hope NFL brass take due notice of his character. He's the kind of guy you want in an organization, no matter what the enterprise is.
There is no way NIL money can even begin to compete with an NFL contract even as a 4-7th round pick. Keep in mind a minimum 3 year contract (as a 5th rounder) could garner in excess of 3 million.
Yeah, I can't see any way he's getting NIL money here that comes close to NFL draft pick money.
Aside from his QB skills, where he showed he can make any throw on the field at any time, he showed he's tough as nails. He took a literal beating this team, took virtually 100% of the snaps at QB and popped up every single time.
But, you hit the nail on the head with his leadership. He's the anti-Manziel. The ultimate team player. You think about the frustration the normal person would feel at trotting out there game after game, knowing you're basically going to get no help. But he never offered even the slightest hint of frustration or annoyance at his teammates.
That's how I see it. What a set of circumstances that brought him here to USC. Two years later and he's cemented a lasting
memory with us. I think there's no reason for him to delay on the NFL. He's shown enough to scouts for them find a place in the league. He's not getting any younger.
From everything I've seen, he's getting anywhere from $1.5/$2M/yr in NIL...Juice isn't far behind. It absolutely does compete. Rattler/Juice didn't risk a career ending injury to come back for nothing. I remember there was a picture posted of Rattler/Joe Rice/Dick Dyer playing golf right around the time he announced he was coming back....lol. Nice little business meeting on the links.
Just look at the Panthers. An all world QB is worthless if you don't have a good OL and receivers.
Listen, Brother, you are one of the best fans and posters on here, but this account comes off as one of those "word is" anecdotes. Some substance is needed here regarding the money.
Even if the money is substantial, opportunities arise that compel immediate rather than deferred response. Rattler needed to fortify his legitimacy and that's why he came back.
Coming back for another year would be "doubling down" on the risks you mentioned for a paycheck that will soon be ending anyway. If doing it once makes questionable sense, doing it twice makes less sense.
Rattler would need to have some pretty strong assurances that the overall offense would be much improved in order to even ponder for a fleeting moment returning next year. A LOT of pieces would have to fall in place. The entire OL has to be worked out. We have to get a run game. Will Juice be back to form? Even if he is, can we find another WR to complement him? Basically, the entire offense outside of Rattler has to be rebuilt.
What are the odds that can all be put together next season?
By your estimations that is still 1 to 1.5 million short per year, and the NFL money is a 3 year guaranteed contract. So no, that does not compete, at all.
Do 3rd rounders get guaranteed contracts? I didn't think so but could be wrong.
Even so, as an early 3rd rounder, his signing bonus alone would be around $1.2 million, then he has a salary on top of that, the total of which would easily exceed the most optimistic NIL deal here.
Depending on your agent and circumstances. The guarantees are usually wrapped up in performance clauses. If a player gets cut because he's not good enough to make the team, then no money would be due, however, getting injured or some other football-related reason that they can not perform, then in that case the money is payable.
I want you to know that I read your message with a Hulk Hogan accent bc of the way you started it, and it was awesome. lol
Rattler was valued at $1M by On3 based on their algorithms. That's about as much substance as you're going to get unless Rattler comes out and confirms it, which he never will. So that's a data point. I would imagine just based on his value to our program specifically he's getting more than the average going rate. UGA, as a comparison, probably wouldn't do as much for him as they don't need to. He's not hanging out golfing with Rice and Dyer without securing a big bag.
But even if it's "only" $1M, that's high 3rd round money already.
It's a tough decision that seems like he's struggling with. Like any other decision in life, the higher the risk the higher the reward. I'm sure there are a lot of conversations with Beamer, Loggains, potential recruits, portal targets, current players (X) that he's having trying to figure out what the potential might be next year.
WATCH: South Carolina's Spencer Rattler picks up G-Wagon for 2023 season
South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler has picked up the keys to his new G-Wagon from Dick Dyer Mercedes-Benz for the upcoming season.
Not for a 3-4 round pick. They get a total contract for $3-4M...not annually. And they're not guaranteed. They can sign them, decide they screwed up a year later and cut them.
The signing bonus alone would be more than that. Then he has his salary on top of that.
Here's a good article. The first pick in the 3rd round gets a 4 year deal for approx $5.85M with a $1.2M signing bonus. So all in that's around $1.7M/yr. He's making enough now where that's a tough decision to make. If he weren't, we'd know his decision by now.
How much money do third round picks in the NFL Draft make?
The 2023 NFL Draft is headed into day two and we’ve got 71 picks to be made. After 31 picks were made Thursday night in round one, we’ll see 32 picks in
dknetwork.draftkings.com
NIL deals are more guaranteed than NFL contracts. NIL deals can't depend on performance, NFL contracts can. Yeah, it's a nice one time bonus, but the salary is quite a bit less than what's it's believed he's making now.
Here's a good article. The first pick in the 3rd round gets a 4 year deal for approx $5.85M with a $1.2M signing bonus. So all in that's around $1.7M/yr. He's making enough now where that's a tough decision to make. If he weren't, we'd know his decision by now.
How much money do third round picks in the NFL Draft make?
The 2023 NFL Draft is headed into day two and we’ve got 71 picks to be made. After 31 picks were made Thursday night in round one, we’ll see 32 picks in
I think when he said "I was just happy to be a part of it...This place meant everything to me" he was pretty much telling us. He walked on senior day. He's playing in the senior bowl. He's speaking of his time here in the past tense.
You have to strain to see it any other way.
There are only around 100 players in the NFL that have guaranteed deals. I don't know this 100%, but I would assume NONE of them were 3-4 round picks....unless they were drafted there and played their way into a guarantee over time.
Cameron Ward, WSU QB, apparently has 10 different $1M offers on the table and he's not even in the portal yet. That's a QB from 5-7 P12 team. QBs are getting paid. Even at lil ole USC.
We've got no idea how much NIL money Rattler is getting.
In any event, I seriously doubt he'd come back to a team that finished 5-7...and was lucky to do so...for a one-year NIL deal that would be about the same or a bit more than he could get in the NFL. This is all if he's Round 3. Many have speculated he'll be Round 2. In that case, it's a total no-brainer.
On the field, he has nothing left to show in college. Does he come back for maybe a couple hundred extra thousand dollars than he'd get in the pros? Possible I guess. Not likely.
Again, if it were a no brainer we'd probably know. Neither you or I know if he really has anything left to show. You can nitpick a lot of things...he routinely throws it a little behind, throws it too late on deep balls, takes WRs off their routes too much, plays much worse on the road. Nobody knows what advice he's being given by folks that do this for a living. They could be telling him "improve in these areas and you're a likely round 1 pick in 2025". I'm not saying he's coming back. He's likely leaving. Just saying I don't think it's as much of a no brainer as some think.
Look, algorithms projecting a player's value are one thing, but where are the spreadsheets showing available total NIL payouts to players of particular schools and how that money is apportioned among a particular school's players?I want you to know that I read your message with a Hulk Hogan accent bc of the way you started it, and it was awesome. lol
Rattler was valued at $1M by On3 based on their algorithms. That's about as much substance as you're going to get unless Rattler comes out and confirms it, which he never will. So that's a data point. I would imagine just based on his value to our program specifically he's getting more than the average going rate. UGA, as a comparison, probably wouldn't do as much for him as they don't need to. He's not hanging out golfing with Rice and Dyer without securing a big bag.
But even if it's "only" $1M, that's high 3rd round money already.
It's a tough decision that seems like he's struggling with. Like any other decision in life, the higher the risk the higher the reward. I'm sure there are a lot of conversations with Beamer, Loggains, potential recruits, portal targets, current players (X) that he's having trying to figure out what the potential might be next year.
WATCH: South Carolina's Spencer Rattler picks up G-Wagon for 2023 season
South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler has picked up the keys to his new G-Wagon from Dick Dyer Mercedes-Benz for the upcoming season.www.on3.com
And then we have terms like "believed to be" applied to what a player is receiving. Bottom line is this: in the world of fandom, information is spotty and incomplete. I suspect it's that way with a lot of the people writing professionally about the topic also. Everybody's guessing at it until there is a compendium of hard data.
Part of their algorithm is actual deal data. There’s no way to know. As I said, it’s a data point. But when you see him riding around with a $140k car and playing golf with our largest athletic donor, I would imagine he’s not hurting for money. Agree?
Yes, but we can't quantify it. We know that the duration of NIL sustenance for him is now short term at best. We'll see what he does.
Ain’t that the truth!! Everyone loves the guy. He’s going to be a legend in Cola. Would be really cool to see he and Juice with one more ride.
Definitely restored some of my faith in Gamecock fans. It was dark times when fans used to make excuses for Stephen Garcia's off-the-field behavior and so-so on-the-field play.