Why perception is sometimes dumb

paindonthurt

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This weekend someone made a point about players not improving and they used Kellum Clark as an example.

2021
Avg 237
HR 5

2022
Avg 257
HR 14

2023 TBD

But he clearly made improvements from 2021 to 2022.

When we aren’t winning people find negatives where there aren’t any.
 

OG Goat Holder

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Sep 30, 2022
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This weekend someone made a point about players not improving and they used Kellum Clark as an example.

2021
Avg 237
HR 5

2022
Avg 257
HR 14

2023 TBD

But he clearly made improvements from 2021 to 2022.

When we aren’t winning people find negatives where there aren’t any.
I’m not one of those guys finding negatives, but just devils advocate. He had half the ABs in 2021, so chances are he’d have hit around 10 bombs had he played the whole time. So, modest improvement.

I think what those people are talking about is that ‘big jump’, where a guy vaults into the 300s. That tends to happen less with these guys like Clark who are old when they get here, and have been coached to the max already. They generally start fairly high and make, again, modest improvement.

Sort of like Texas football talent, on a general level.
 

onewoof

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Mar 4, 2008
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This weekend someone made a point about players not improving and they used Kellum Clark as an example.

2021
Avg 237
HR 5

2022
Avg 257
HR 14

2023 TBD

But he clearly made improvements from 2021 to 2022.

When we aren’t winning people find negatives where there aren’t any.
Hyper reactive like children
 
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paindonthurt

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I’m not one of those guys finding negatives, but just devils advocate. He had half the ABs in 2021, so chances are he’d have hit around 10 bombs had he played the whole time. So, modest improvement.

I think what those people are talking about is that ‘big jump’, where a guy vaults into the 300s. That tends to happen less with these guys like Clark who are old when they get here, and have been coached to the max already. They generally start fairly high and make, again, modest improvement.

Sort of like Texas football talent, on a general level.
So you are saying it’s not on the coaches?

Either way he showed improvement and 10 home runs to 14 isn’t a small jump

He definitely hasn’t regressed. He may this year. He may not.
 

Podgy

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Are you referring to me? Here's what I typed which really is a bit different: "I also wonder how many players have improved dramatically under this coaching staff. How much better are Clark and Hancock than two years ago?"

"improved dramatically" and "how much better" are important and it's phrased as a question because I'm too lazy to look up stats. But, as you point out, perception can be dumb so I guess that those words are easy to miss and remember accurately. Clark, as you point out, is somewhat better and with more power, something that's expected from players. Wasn't he a Top 5 recruit in MS? He did play a lot fewer games as a freshman two years ago. Is that dramatic improvement under under these coaches? Maybe the coaching staff has gotten the best out of them. Or maybe not. Players often get better with experience. I know Hancock's batting average is up so far although I think he hit more HR's two years ago. Not that I think HR's are necessarily the main stat to judge a hitter. Two years ago he hit those homers early in the season, but I think his patience at the plate was his greatest asset. State is playing poorly at the moment despite today's win and it's still uncertain whether we'll be better than last year. So why is that? That was my point about coaching. I guess I could also ask how many pitchers have improved dramatically too.
 
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paindonthurt

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Are you referring to me? Here's what I typed which really is a bit different: "I also wonder how many players have improved dramatically under this coaching staff. How much better are Clark and Hancock than two years ago?"

"improved dramatically" and "how much better" are important and it's phrased as a question because I'm too lazy to look up stats. Clark, as you point out, is somewhat better and with more power, something that's expected from players. Wasn't he a Top 5 recruit in MS? He did play a lot fewer games as a freshman two years ago. Is that dramatic improvement under under these coaches? Maybe the coaching staff has gotten the best out of them. Or maybe not. Players often get better with experience. I know Hancock's batting average is up so far although I think he hit more HR's two years ago. Not that I think HR's are necessarily the main stat to judge a hitter. Two years ago he hit those homers early in the season, but I think his patience at the plate was his greatest asset. State is playing poorly at the moment despite today's win and it's still uncertain whether we'll be better than last year. So why is that? That was my point about coaching. I guess I could also ask how many pitchers have improved dramatically too.
No I’m not talking about what someone said on this board.
 

paindonthurt

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Jun 27, 2009
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Are you referring to me? Here's what I typed which really is a bit different: "I also wonder how many players have improved dramatically under this coaching staff. How much better are Clark and Hancock than two years ago?"

"improved dramatically" and "how much better" are important and it's phrased as a question because I'm too lazy to look up stats. But, as you point out, perception can be dumb so I guess that those words are easy to miss and remember accurately. Clark, as you point out, is somewhat better and with more power, something that's expected from players. Wasn't he a Top 5 recruit in MS? He did play a lot fewer games as a freshman two years ago. Is that dramatic improvement under under these coaches? Maybe the coaching staff has gotten the best out of them. Or maybe not. Players often get better with experience. I know Hancock's batting average is up so far although I think he hit more HR's two years ago. Not that I think HR's are necessarily the main stat to judge a hitter. Two years ago he hit those homers early in the season, but I think his patience at the plate was his greatest asset. State is playing poorly at the moment despite today's win and it's still uncertain whether we'll be better than last year. So why is that? That was my point about coaching. I guess I could also ask how many pitchers have improved dramatically too.
Tanner Allen
2018
287 and 5
2019 Lemonis’ 1st year
349 and 7
2021
383 and 11

Justin Foscue
2018
241 and 3
2019
331 and 14
 

Podgy

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So whose batting average is showing such dramatic improvement 2020-22 or 2020-23? Or, are those two players outliers? Cumbest found his power.
 

paindonthurt

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So whose batting average is showing such dramatic improvement 2020-22 or 2020-23? Or, are those two players outliers? Cumbest found his power.
I looked at those 2 and rowdy
Rowdy had a big 2018 a slump 2019 and a good 2021
 

Called3rdstrikedawg

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When judging Home Run hitters, you have to also examine when they hit them. Last year, we had a large number of Solo Homeruns by our Homerun hitters, and extreme failures by this same guys with multiple runners on base. That tells me they focus on hitting the long ball and not moving runners and driving in runs. It also obviously showed that our opponents pitchers were more around the middle of the plate with nobody on base, and unfortunately for us, that recipe still worked because we weren’t going to win games with 3 solo Homeruns and a sac fly last year. Just a personal observation from last year.
 

8dog

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Feb 23, 2008
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This weekend someone made a point about players not improving and they used Kellum Clark as an example.

2021
Avg 237
HR 5

2022
Avg 257
HR 14

2023 TBD

But he clearly made improvements from 2021 to 2022.

When we aren’t winning people find negatives where there aren’t any.

Yes he went from a guy who was very sick and didn’t play until the end of the year to hitting 257 with 14 HRs. I get rhats technically improving but I dont think thats some dramatic indicator that he is developing. Now he is hitting .205 so obviously people questioning his improvement are justified at this point. Hopefully he can prove them wrong.
 

paindonthurt

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Yes he went from a guy who was very sick and didn’t play until the end of the year to hitting 257 with 14 HRs. I get rhats technically improving but I dont think thats some dramatic indicator that he is developing. Now he is hitting .205 so obviously people questioning his improvement are justified at this point. Hopefully he can prove them wrong.
1 guy doesn’t mean anything.

clark may have a great year and he may have a bad one. Who knows
 

8dog

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1 guy doesn’t mean anything.

clark may have a great year and he may have a bad one. Who knows

You started the entire thread based around him. So I guess I’m confused.

Regardless the main issues are pitching and fielding.
 

paindonthurt

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You started the entire thread based around him. So I guess I’m confused.

Regardless the main issues are pitching and fielding.
I started the thread around perception.

he was an example.
He hasn’t shown “dramatic” improvement but he hasn’t declined up to this season.
 

SyonaraStanz

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Mar 5, 2010
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This weekend someone made a point about players not improving and they used Kellum Clark as an example.

2021
Avg 237
HR 5

2022
Avg 257
HR 14

2023 TBD

But he clearly made improvements from 2021 to 2022.

When we aren’t winning people find negatives where there aren’t any.
When one of your veteran players, who is supposed to be one of your top guys in the middle of the order, is hitting in the low to mid .200’s, that’s a negative. Going from really $hitty to mildly $hitty is still $hitty.
 

curseddawgs

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When one of your veteran players, who is supposed to be one of your top guys in the middle of the order, is hitting in the low to mid .200’s, that’s a negative. Going from really $hitty to mildly $hitty is still $hitty.
Don’t mention the fact that Kellum missed half of his freshman year either
 

paindonthurt

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When one of your veteran players, who is supposed to be one of your top guys in the middle of the order, is hitting in the low to mid .200’s, that’s a negative. Going from really $hitty to mildly $hitty is still $hitty.
Let’s see if he is really $hitty at the end of the year.

He’s actually never been really good. So maybe he’s just not that good.
 

8dog

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Tanner Allen wasn't that good as a sophomore

He his .384 in conference and led the team in RBIs

This thread is really bizzare. The OP a went from using Kellum Clark as some example that “perception isn’t reality” about improvement (while Clark bats .205 and his OPS is way down) to saying he may just be terrible anyway.
 

ronpolk

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He his .384 in conference and led the team in RBIs

This thread is really bizzare. The OP a went from using Kellum Clark as some example that “perception isn’t reality” about improvement (while Clark bats .205 and his OPS is way down) to saying he may just be terrible anyway.
No kidding… I honestly don’t care that much about an individual players improvement year over year and I suspect others don’t either. That sort of stuff starts getting picked apart because we simply are not winning enough. If we only had say 2 losses at this point, there wouldn’t be post like this or post talking about the development of players.
 

OG Goat Holder

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When judging Home Run hitters, you have to also examine when they hit them. Last year, we had a large number of Solo Homeruns by our Homerun hitters, and extreme failures by this same guys with multiple runners on base. That tells me they focus on hitting the long ball and not moving runners and driving in runs. It also obviously showed that our opponents pitchers were more around the middle of the plate with nobody on base, and unfortunately for us, that recipe still worked because we weren’t going to win games with 3 solo Homeruns and a sac fly last year. Just a personal observation from last year.
Is this really true? I think a lot of statisticians have debunked the whole 'clutch' thing. It's basically just bad luck.

Now, the part about them trying to launch bombs rather than make contact could be a real thing. I'm still not sure about that. Analytics still say you're better off swinging hard and while that produces strikeouts, it also produces offense.

And it's not like you have a ton of time up there in the batter's box to truly think about these things. Bottom line I think it's just a lot of garbage that is spewed by fans to sound like we know what's going on. Baseball is an extremely simple game, especially at the high school/college/pro level (once players have matured).
 
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paindonthurt

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Tanner Allen wasn't that good as a sophomore
Yes that proves what I’m saying. Sometimes players have ****** years.

kellum clark may be having a ****** year.
He may just not be that good.
It may be coaching.

But the only evidence provided so far of hitters regressing under Lemonis has been Clark. And that evidence isn’t very good.

there has been evidence of hitters getting better though.
 

paindonthurt

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No kidding… I honestly don’t care that much about an individual players improvement year over year and I suspect others don’t either. That sort of stuff starts getting picked apart because we simply are not winning enough. If we only had say 2 losses at this point, there wouldn’t be post like this or post talking about the development of players.
You basically just said what I said in my original post.

“When we aren’t winning people find negatives where there aren’t any.”
 
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thekimmer

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This weekend someone made a point about players not improving and they used Kellum Clark as an example.

2021
Avg 237
HR 5

2022
Avg 257
HR 14

2023 TBD

But he clearly made improvements from 2021 to 2022.

When we aren’t winning people find negatives where there aren’t any.
No argument that .257 is an improvement over .237. I would argue however that .257 is still not close to the BA you've got to have from your right fielder. He did have a big HR yesterday but still hitting .205
 

Podgy

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No kidding… I honestly don’t care that much about an individual players improvement year over year and I suspect others don’t either. That sort of stuff starts getting picked apart because we simply are not winning enough. If we only had say 2 losses at this point, there wouldn’t be post like this or post talking about the development of players.
I think that's true. I enjoy watching State baseball and I'm just wondering why we're not all that good again this year. It's still early but so far I'm not optimistic. I know it's about pitching again but maybe, just maybe, there's some issue with player development overall. Lemonis has a Natty and some CWS appearances. He can coach. So what are the issues? I really don't know. For the record I like Clark. Couldn't he be coached up to hit around 300?
 
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OG Goat Holder

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No argument that .257 is an improvement over .237. I would argue however that .257 is still not close to the BA you've got to have from your right fielder. He did have a big HR yesterday but still hitting .205
That's kind of a rigid argument, that I don't really buy. You're getting big numbers from 4 other guys. Generally you get 80% of the production out of 20% of the lineup, which is about 2 guys. You've got Ledbetter and Amani with outstanding OPS, and they are at CF and 2B. Who cares? If he plays the position well and still rakes, doesn't matter what some 1987 baseball myth says.

The key here is to not have the rest of the order be black holes. All Clark really needs to do is reproduce last year, maybe with another bit of modest improvement. Same with Hines and Forty. Then you have Chance and Hancock doing well, but will probably regress back to reality soon. The rest of the order just can't be terrible, some combo of Highfill, Alford, Jordan, Hujsak, Chester, Downs.

That lineup could be 2016 level.
 

OG Goat Holder

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I think that's true. I enjoy watching State baseball and I'm just wondering why we're not all that good again this year. It's still early but so far I'm not optimistic. I know it's about pitching again but maybe, just maybe, there's some issue with player development overall. Lemonis has a Natty and some CWS appearances. He can coach. So what are the issues? I really don't know. For the record I like Clark. Couldn't he be coached up to hit around 300?
This is what I was getting at in post #4. My theory is that a lot of these year-round travel ball guys have been coached up so much that they are maxed out. Many of them were held back so they are older and more mature. They come in and start as freshmen, but they never really make a big jump. Other examples are Hines, Forty. In the past, you have Kamren James that I would put in this territory. Sometimes they can get around 300, sometimes they can't. And it's not rigid either. Heck even Jake Mangum. He got here and played the same for 4 years, of course, hard to make a jump from his average, but it's not like he added a bunch of power or anything.

On the flip side, you have the raw guys like that do make huge jumps, like Renfroe. That can also go the other way - Logan Tanner. I had that guy pegged as a guy who would hit mid 300s with a ton of bombs as a junior. Didn't happen. Lot of speculation as to why, but athletic ability isn't one of them. Guys like TA and Rowdy were playing football in the fall why these other guys were still playing baseball. They still produced at the same level, and once they get to college and start playing year round and getting reps, they explode and make big jumps.

And other times it's just about overall talent. Adam Frazier was a travel baller, but he was also an MLB talent. He exploded at college and exploded again in the pros.

Nothing wrong with any of those paths, but it's something to keep in mind when talking about players making jumps from year to year, and what to truly expect.
 
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paindonthurt

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No argument that .257 is an improvement over .237. I would argue however that .257 is still not close to the BA you've got to have from your right fielder. He did have a big HR yesterday but still hitting .205
agreed

but that doesn't prove the point some people are making that we haven't developed any hitters and hitters are getting worse.

we do have a pitching problem it seems.
 

johnson86-1

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I started the thread around perception.

he was an example.
He hasn’t shown “dramatic” improvement but he hasn’t declined up to this season.
I think the perception on Kellum is because he finished his freshman year hot. I think most people, me included, were hoping that that was his new baseline and he'd hopefully make a jump from there. Instead, it felt like he declined although even that may just be on the timeliness of his hits in 2021. I'm not sure he really hit better than .257 in the post season.
 

kired

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This weekend someone made a point about players not improving and they used Kellum Clark as an example.

2021
Avg 237
HR 5

2022
Avg 257
HR 14

2023 TBD

But he clearly made improvements from 2021 to 2022.

When we aren’t winning people find negatives where there aren’t any.
For whatever reason a lot of people were expecting Clark to be the next great MSU hitter like Renfroe or Rooker. At worst people thought he should be hitting .280ish with minimum 15 HRs after some time in the program. He hit about the same amount of HRs based on his plate appearances, but only hit 20 points better. Definitely not the jump people hoped for. So that's why people would use him as an example. He's basically the same player he was 2 years ago --- his average is going to fluctuate 0.250 +/- .025 throughout the year.
 

IBleedMaroonDawg

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Yes that proves what I’m saying. Sometimes players have ****** years.

kellum clark may be having a ****** year.
He may just not be that good.
It may be coaching.

But the only evidence provided so far of hitters regressing under Lemonis has been Clark. And that evidence isn’t very good.

there has been evidence of hitters getting better though.
According to some it is always coaching. JWS said all you can do is prepare and hope they perform the way you prepared them. I'm not saying the coach is not partially to blame but I don't think we would recruit that many bad pitchers. I still think there is something else wrong with the arms we have. We hit and score but walk batters and give up hits like crazy in critical situations For example, this past weekend how many times we were close to getting "that" pitch for an out when we gave up the hit?
I don't think you can blame coaches for errors either. You would like to hope that by the time they get to this level of baseball they can make most of their plays without dropping the ball or booting it.
 

OG Goat Holder

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For whatever reason a lot of people were expecting Clark to be the next great MSU hitter like Renfroe or Rooker. At worst people thought he should be hitting .280ish with minimum 15 HRs after some time in the program. He hit about the same amount of HRs based on his plate appearances, but only hit 20 points better. Definitely not the jump people hoped for. So that's why people would use him as an example. He's basically the same player he was 2 years ago --- his average is going to fluctuate 0.250 +/- .025 throughout the year.
I don't know why. His career wasn't similar to theirs' in the least.

I would imagine it's because he was being considered on draft boards when he came out of high school in the 2020 shortened draft. Then hit the 2 rockets out of TDA.

But he's not a similar player to the others. The ball always sounded different off Renfroe's/Rooker's bats, even their freshman years when they weren't playing, and in Rooker's case, his redshirt freshman year. I still don't understand why Rooker didn't start in 2015 from day 1, it's one of the big Cohen mysteries. He crushed the ball all fall and spring in practice, it was easy to see coming. His first year, I get it, there was some adjusting. But I thought he was better than much of what we trotted out there that year.
 
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