Willie's Predictions on 2024-25 Season
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Willie's Predictions for PSU:
125: Lilledahl - 3rd place (mentioned he's tempted to have him taking 1st)
133: B. Davis - not placing (he thinks Nagao is still hurt)
141: Bartlett - 3rd place (he says it's dealer's choice between Alirez, Mendez, and Beau)
149: SVN - 2nd
157: Kasak - 3rd
165: Mesenbrink - 1st
174: Haines - 2nd
184: Starocci - 2nd (he says whoever wins between CStar and Keckeisen in the All-Star Classic will be his pick to win NCAAs)
197: no PSUer placing (he thinks Barr will be there, but isn't even sure who PSU will start)
285: Kerk - 1st
I didn't list Basch's predictions. You'll have to watch for them, or somebody else can post them.
125: Lilledahl - 3rd place (mentioned he's tempted to have him taking 1st)
133: B. Davis - not placing (he thinks Nagao is still hurt)
141: Bartlett - 3rd place (he says it's dealer's choice between Alirez, Mendez, and Beau)
149: SVN - 2nd
157: Kasak - 3rd
165: Mesenbrink - 1st
174: Haines - 2nd
184: Starocci - 2nd (he says whoever wins between CStar and Keckeisen in the All-Star Classic will be his pick to win NCAAs)
197: no PSUer placing (he thinks Barr will be there, but isn't even sure who PSU will start)
285: Kerk - 1st
I didn't list Basch's predictions. You'll have to watch for them, or somebody else can post them.
Man, Willie doesn't have a ton of faith in some of our guys including a 4x NCAA Champion. I know he is plugged in but I cannot see Facundo coming back to PSU to sit on the bench. The PSU wrestling social media account was even hyping his return from his Olympic RS just a few weeks ago. If he's not in the lineup I will be very surprised.
125lbs: Lilledahl - I agree with Willie. I'll go with 3rd place with the potential to win it all.
133lbs: B. Davis - I think he places. It could honestly be anywhere from 1st-8th. I don't know why he is down on Braeden who accomplished a lot as a true freshman.
141lbs: I agree with Willie. I think it's a three way tossup between Alirez, Mendez and Beau. Although Beau has the advantage here because his name does not end with EZ. It's what sets him apart from the other guys!
149lbs: SVN - I think he makes the finals.
157lsbs: I think this is either Facundo/MM - If it's MM he wins it all. If it's Facundo I think the weight cut is a bit much for him and he finishes 3rd-5th.
165lsbs: Facudno/MM - If it's MM I think he wins it all and if it's Facundo I have him taking 3rd.
174lb: Haines - Champion.
184lbs: Carter. He is a 4x NCAA champion who has not lost in like 3 years. Sorry PK, but Carter has beaten previous champs before and I don't think he is on Carter's level. Carter is on the AB level and PK was never beating AB.
197lbs: I don't know who will be here. Either way I don't think they place.
285lbs: Kerk. Champion.
I won't watch for Basch's predictions. I don't have time fore a religious podcast in my life.
Maybe Willie has been called a Penn State homer once too often, and he’s at least subconsciously trying to change that perception by erring on the side of picking others where it seems close.
Willie did mention that most of the guys he has placing are older (have been in college wrestling several years), where as Braeden is younger, as just a true sophomore.
I think the other factor is the competition. Look at what is projected to be at 133 this season:
- Ryan Crookham (Lehigh) took 3rd @ 133 last year
- Nasir Bailey (Little Rock) took 4th @ 133 last year
- Dylan Ragusin (Michigan) took 5th @ 133 last year
- Evan Frost (Iowa State) took 6th @ 133 last year
- Dylan Shawver (Rutgers) took 7th @ 133 last year
- Drake Ayala (Iowa) took 2nd @ 125 last year (and is moving up)
- Anthony Noto (Lock Haven) took 3rd @ 125 last year (and is moving up)
- Lucas Byrd (Illinois) took 5th @ 133 in 2022 and in 2021, flamed out in R12 in 2023, and was out with an injury in 2024
Returning to Willie's age point that I mentioned, only Crookham, Bailey, and Frost of the aforementioned are sophomores (eligibility), and Crookham and Frost are RS sophomores. Bailey, like Braeden, is a true sophomore, and he placed 4th @ 133 last year.
I don't think that Willie's Crystal Ball for Braeden is an indication that Willie's down on Braeden. FWIW, Flo's latest rankings @ 133 have Braeden at 10th -- off the platform, as Willie has him.
Projecting how wrestlers will do when moving up one or more weight classes is always a bit of a crap shoot. When a wrestler is doing that in a weight class that has so many returning podium wrestlers (1 & 2 graduated, and 8 is moving to 141, but the rest are returning), predicting that the wrestler moving up will finish on the podium is pretty tough to do, unless they have some podium credentials at their previous weight(s) (as Haines and Starocci do this year, and Brooks had last year).
2.5 house, felt like a marathon, was enjoyable. Down on Davis, hates Barr 
The Carter shade......
The Carter shade......
Mesenbrink will have his choice of weights after Levi. He's not cutting when (1) he's the hands-down favorite at 165, (2) it's his more natural weight, (3) it's almost exactly his freestyle weight.
Nagao withdrew from U23 Trials with a shoulder injury. It's far from clear that he'll be healthy. A medical shirt might be in order.
Also it's not entirely clear that he would start even if healthy. Davis is definitely moving up, and he's more fundamental on feet (doesn't give up shots, less reliant on scrambling). Wouldn't count on Davis shirting if he's the better option, because we have a lot of incoming talent at 125/133 and somebody's gonna lose a year (or more) at some point in time.
Mirasola is shirting. Barr is going 197. Willie has Barr around R16 at nationals, which is reasonable today given the field at that weight and Barr having never competed there. That's also IMO his absolute floor, even with a terrible draw in consis. I think he's right now a top 10-12 guy at the weight, and finishes higher than that.
Wrestlers at PSU take huge steps from year 1 to year 2 in the program. I think Josh Barr does much better than anticipated at 197. Wouldn’t be shocked if he’s an AA.
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