Since it's the time of year that we all start talking about the coaching carousel and speculating about which coaches might be "can't miss" hires, I thought I'd throw out a hypothetical. Let's say you are an SEC program looking to hire a new coach who can take you to a level you haven't seen in decades. The coach below has spent the last 5 years at a P5 program (not a perennial power, but not a bottom dweller, either) accruing the following record:
Year 1 6-5-1
Year 2 6-6
Year 3 7-5
Year 4 6-6
Year 5 9-2
Without question, year 5 was a big success, but does this body of work suggest this guy can turn an SEC team into a power house? Personally, if it were my SEC program, I'd be afraid we were about to hire a guy who was a one-hit wonder and hasn't yet demonstrated that he can build a program with sustained success.
But, as some of you may have guessed, based on the records, LSU thought differently when they hired Nick Saban and they clearly made the right decision in poaching him away from Michigan State. But, based on his record at Michigan State, who would have guessed he would go on to win 7 national titles? Had he stayed at Michigan State for 10+ years, would he have ever taken them to national-title-caliber heights, or would that sole 9-2 season remain the highlight of his tenure there?
Year 1 6-5-1
Year 2 6-6
Year 3 7-5
Year 4 6-6
Year 5 9-2
Without question, year 5 was a big success, but does this body of work suggest this guy can turn an SEC team into a power house? Personally, if it were my SEC program, I'd be afraid we were about to hire a guy who was a one-hit wonder and hasn't yet demonstrated that he can build a program with sustained success.
But, as some of you may have guessed, based on the records, LSU thought differently when they hired Nick Saban and they clearly made the right decision in poaching him away from Michigan State. But, based on his record at Michigan State, who would have guessed he would go on to win 7 national titles? Had he stayed at Michigan State for 10+ years, would he have ever taken them to national-title-caliber heights, or would that sole 9-2 season remain the highlight of his tenure there?