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2025 NCAA Tournament: Former HC Avery Johnson picks Saint Mary's to upset Alabama in Round of 32

ns_headshot_2024-clearby:Nick Schultz•about 11 hours•

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Former Alabama HC Avery Johnson
© Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

As play-in games continue for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, brackets are starting to become finalized. Former Alabama coach Avery Johnson released his predictions Wednesday, and he has the Crimson Tide suffering an early upset.

Johnson predicted Saint Mary’s to beat Alabama in the Round of 32 in his bracket. He coached the Crimson Tide from 2015-19, making the 2018 NCAA Tournament. The two sides agreed to part ways after an NIT appearance in 2019.

Now an analyst for CBS Sports, Johnson has Alabama on upset alert as March Madness gets underway. The Crimson Tide will get things underway in the first round Friday against Robert Morris in the first round of the East Region.

Alabama enters the NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed with a 25-8 overall record. The Crimson Tide saw their SEC tournament run come to an end in the semifinals against Florida, which also saw star forward Grant Nelson go down with a knee injury. He did not return, but Nate Oats expressed optimism Nelson would be able to play in March Madness.

As for when he could return, Oats said Friday’s game against Robert Morris could be a little soon. However, the sense is he could be good to go by Sunday’s second round.

“We need to get him healthy,” Oats said on Hey Coach ahead of the NCAA Tournament. “Not sure he’ll be ready by Friday. We’re hoping, at a minimum, he’d be ready by Sunday with the possibility of Friday… We dodged one. It wasn’t anything too serious with his knee but will for sure be questionable for that first game on Friday.”

Nelson is Alabama’s second-leading scorer and rebounder entering the NCAA Tournament, going for 11.8 points and 7.6 boards per game. Florida was able to pull away on Saturday once he left the court due to the injury.

Nelson’s health will be the biggest storyline for Alabama ahead of the big dance. However, ESPN’s Jay Bilas wondered if he could get back to close enough to 100% to help lead the Crimson Tide to the Final Four. As Bilas looked at the bracket, he saw Nelson’s health making a serious impact.

“Alabama hasn’t played great lately by SEC standards,” Bilas said. “But what I would tell you is that if they were in the ACC playing that way, they would have won all but one of those games. I think Alabama is very, very capable when healthy. … Of the guys they’ve been playing with all year, if Nelson is not healthy, that takes away their best shot blocker, their best rebounder, and maybe their best driver outside of Mark Sears. It would limit them.”