Phil Steele’s Alabama football forecast is sunny with a chance of confetti

Phil Steele ranked Alabama football No. 1 overall in his forecast and has the Crimson Tide favored in every game this season. The Crimson Tide are coming off a 13-0 run to a national championship that includes 11 SEC wins. Riding a streak of 80-straight games as the favorite, Steele projects that number will be pushed to 92 by the end of the regular season. Nick Saban has retooled with five-star freshmen and top-ranked transfers, looking to make another undefeated run to the title in 2021.

“Bama will be preseason No. 1 for the first time in three years and are the favorites to win it all again,” Steele wrote in his 2021 Alabama forecast.

Offense

The Crimson Tide offense loses quarterback Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. However, Alabama’s forecast still projects to average more than 40 points per game in Steele’s simulation. Former five-star quarterback Bryce Young takes over the offense with a new core of stars around him. Returning wide receiver John Metchie III looks to make a leap forward as the No. 1 target while a long list of underclassmen battle for time at the other spots out wide.

Defense

Alabama’s defense lost cornerback Patrick Surtain II and defensive tackle Christian Barmore but added back talent and experience this offseason. Tennessee transfer Henry To’o To’o projects as a starter beside Christian Harris and freshman cornerback Ga’Quincy “Kool-Aid” McKinstry hopes to break into the starting lineup. A pair of freshman starters from 2020 look to make a jump as Will Anderson Jr. and Malachi Moore play bigger roles in the defense. While the defensive numbers have gone down from past Saban teams, Alabama’s forecast suggests part of the blame falls on the high scoring offense.

Special Teams

Alabama’s biggest downfall in recent years has been the special teams unit. Missed field goals have led to the Crimson Tide’s worst memories and the punting has been bad in recent years. However, Steele ranks Alabama’s 2021 group of special teamers No. 1 in the country. Kicker Will Reichard is coming off a perfect season on field goal and extra-point attempts while two incoming punters are set to battle for the job this summer.

Coaches

The coaching staff saw turnover this offseason, losing a majority of the offensive staff to Texas. When former offensive coordinator Steven Sarkisian took the special teams coach and offensive line coach to Texas, Saban rebooted his coaching rehab program. Alabama added a pair of fired NFL coaches in Bill O’Brien and Doug Marrone to the staff.