CBS Sports' Jerry Palm says Alabama isn't likely to jump Texas, make CFP with Florida State win: 'Better luck next year'

As controversial as it might seem, the SEC could miss the 2023 College Football Playoff. With one-loss Alabama upsetting Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday, the Crimson Tide (and Bulldogs) could get boxed out, a situation CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm thinks could be likely at this point.

And doing the boxing out will be Texas and, potentially, Florida State. The Longhorns won the Big 12 and finished with one loss, but hold a win over Alabama; Florida State and Louisville play on Saturday night for an ACC title and a potential undefeated season for the Seminoles.

“Right now, their ceiling is Texas. It’s been Texas all year because Texas beat ’em at their place. So, that’s an important factor for the committee, head to head, conference championships, these are important factors for the committee. Well, they’re both conference champions but Texas beat them head-to-head at their place. So, that’s been a ceiling for them. Georgia will be behind Alabama. They will all be ahead of Ohio State. So right now it looks like Texas No. 4, Alabama No. 5, Georgia No. 6, pending Michigan and Florida State still in action later tonight,” Palm said.

Palm also unpacked some of the discussion around the perception of the SEC versus the actual results from the SEC on the field in 2023: It’s not quite the juggernaut league of years past.

Even with that, Palm added, Alabama is a very worthy team of playoff contention as a one-loss conference champion. He’s just not going to hand them a playoff spot purely because they won the SEC as opposed to other leagues producing champions with similar resumes.

“This year, Texas beat Alabama. And now Alabama beat Georgia. This was not a great year for the SEC. You may remember that they didn’t perform all that well in non-conference play. The best win, in non-conference play the SEC had, Mississippi State over Arizona? Maybe Ole Miss at Tulane. The big wins that you normally see SEC teams get in non-conference play didn’t happen this year. So, this was a relatively down year for the league. Of course they beat up on a ton of tomato cans, as they always do. But in the big games this year, they didn’t perform as well as they usually do. So, the SEC is not the SEC this year. But if Texas wasn’t in front of Alabama, Alabama would have a clear path to the playoff. But I don’t see how this committee is going to put Alabama in and not Texas,” Palm said.

Succinctly, Palm isn’t buying any argument that’s based on the idea that playing in the SEC proves Alabama is somehow more deserving of a playoff spot than the likes of the Seminoles or Longhorns.

“Other than SEC champion, which is a thing — champion is a thing. SEC champion is not a thing. So, if all you’ve got is ‘They’re in the SEC,’ you don’t have anything,” Palm said.

And in the even the SEC does get left out for the first time — something that’s happened to every other power conference — Palm has an even simpler message.

“Better luck next year,” Palm said.