ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Alabama in 2023

ESPN has released their game-by-game predictions, as well as their overall record projection, for the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2023 via their Football Power Index.

Nick Saban’s squad is looking to get back to their standard this season, which includes a College Football Playoff berth, at the least. Anything less will likely be considered a disappointment by not just Saban himself, but fans and media members alike.

Regardless of the pressure on the Crimson Tide, questions remain at the quarterback position, as Alabama still hasn’t named a starter, even with some solid options in Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner. Nevertheless, count ESPN’s algorithm as a believer in Saban’s bunch, despite the gigantic question mark.

Here’s their full game-by-game predictions for Alabama’s 2023 season. They’re going to bring a smile to the face of fans in Tuscaloosa.

Sept. 2: Alabama vs Middle Tennessee State — 99% chance of win

Last season, Alabama opened up their campaign with a 55-0 victory over Utah State. It’s evident ESPN is expecting the Crimson Tide to have another easy victory to begin their season in 2023.

The bigger storyline throughout will be which quarterback receives the lion-share of work, and how they look against the Blue Raiders. They’ll need to be sharp for their Week 2 showdown with Texas, as the Longhorns pose a much bigger threat to Alabama’s season than Middle Tennessee State.

Sept. 9: Alabama vs Texas — 76.4% chance of win

Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns almost pulled off the monumental upset of Alabama last season in Austin, as Texas fell by just one point to the Crimson Tide. Still, that’s been looked at as the moment many began to wholeheartedly believe in what the Longhorns coach was preaching, and they’re looking to reach the next level in 2023.

It’s the final season before this becomes a regular matchup within the SEC, but the glitz and glamour is still there for one of the season’s most anticipated games. This time around, Alabama is welcoming Texas to Tuscaloosa, and they’re out to prove a point after last year’s razor-thin showdown.

Sept. 16: Alabama at South Florida Bulls — 98.5% chance of win

After what’s shaping up to be an emotional meeting with Texas, Alabama gets a slight reprieve with their first road game of the season taking place against USF. While the Bulls have been building their program back up from the ruins, ESPN doesn’t expect them to find victory against the Crimson Tide.

Additionally, USF represents the last of Alabama’s games before true SEC play begins. With a gauntlet of a schedule on the horizon, the Crimson Tide will look to make easy work of the Bulls, before getting into the meat and potatoes of their campaign.

Sept. 23: Alabama vs Ole Miss — 89.6% chance of win

It hasn’t been easy for Saban’s squad against former disciple Lane Kiffin over the last couple of years, but they’ve found a path to victory each time against the Rebels. In 2022, Ole Miss came within a touchdown of defeating the Crimson Tide, but Bryce Young’s 209 passing yards helped lead Alabama to victory.

This game takes on a little more juice now in 2023, with former Alabama defensive coordinator Pete Golding jumping ship to Oxford. Crimson Tide fans aren’t too upset to see him go though, and ESPN doesn’t believe the difference will be much, giving Alabama an 89.6% chance of victory.

Sept. 30: Alabama at Mississippi State — 90.6% chance of win

Mississippi State took their talents to Tuscaloosa last season at the No. 24 ranked team in the nation looking for an upset. However, the only people upset were their fans, as Alabama destroyed the Bulldogs in 2022 by a score of 30-6.

After the passing of Mike Leach, Mississippi State will look very different in 2023, but Will Rogers is returning under center for the Bulldogs. He’ll want nothing more than to get a victory over the Crimson Tide, but ESPN doesn’t see it in the cards for Mississippi State.

Oct. 7: Alabama at Texas A&M — 82.1% chance of win

While 2022 was a disaster for Texas A&M, they almost pulled off the shocking upset of the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. It wasn’t the best game for the aforementioned Milroe, who threw for just 111 yards against Jimbo Fisher’s squad, but he’ll be hoping for the opportunity to get after them again in 2023.

Whether he wins the quarterback battle remains to be seen, but the Aggies are hoping to bounce back in a big way this season. One way to do that would be to get a victory over Alabama, and ESPN is giving them slightly better odds than some other SEC squads to do so.

Oct. 14: Alabama vs Arkansas — 93.8% chance of win

Last season, Arkansas changed the trajectory of Alabama’s season, as Bryce Young was injured against the Razorbacks. Things looked bleak for Alabama at a time against Sam Pittman’s squad, but they were able to get right in the fourth quarter, and stretch out to a 49-26 victory.

With quarterback KJ Jefferson returning to Fayetteville, Arkansas is looking to take the next step in a crowded SEC. A victory over Alabama would do wonders for the Razorbacks, but ESPN is only giving them a 6.2% chance at one, believing the Crimson Tide take care of business once again.

Oct. 21: Alabama vs Tennessee — 88% chance of win

In one of the best games of the 2022 season, Tennessee famously knocked off the Crimson Tide by a score of 52-49 in Neyland Stadium. You can bet Alabama took that personal, and is looking for revenge in 2023.

Instead of Hendon Hooker leading the charge, Joe Milton will be under center for the Volunteers when they come to Tuscaloosa. Count on Saban to have Alabama roaring and ready to go against Tennessee, as he looks for revenge in an effort to avoid losing back-to-back games to Josh Heupel’s squad.

Nov. 4: Alabama vs LSU — 76.1% chance of win

After Tennessee, the Alabama revenge tour continues with the LSU Tigers, after Brian Kelly and company defeated Saban’s team during his first year on the job. It was an exhilarating, 32-31 overtime victory for the Tigers, and a loss that kept Alabama out of the College Football Playoff conversation.

Like the Volunteers, the Tigers will have to get a win over the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa if they’re to win back-to-back games against Alabama. That’s easier said than done, but ESPN believes it’ll be Alabama’s toughest test of the season, only giving them a 76.1 chance of victory over LSU.

Nov. 11: Alabama at Kentucky — 87% chance of win

While Kentucky could surprise some people in 2023, ESPN isn’t betting on one of them being Nick Saban. They believe the Crimson Tide will take care of business, giving them an 87% chance of victory to go into Lexington and leave victorious.

Still, if former NC State quarterback Devin Leary is all that he’s been promised for Kentucky, this one could get interesting. After what’s to be two hard fought games against Tennessee and LSU, perhaps Alabama could let their guard down against Kentucky, we’ll see.

Nov. 18: Alabama vs Chattanooga — 99% chance of win

Much to the dismay of some, Alabama will be a reprieve against Chattanooga late in the season, as their second to last game comes against the Mocs. In a similar vein, Alabama defeated the Austin Peay Governors in this slot by a score of 34-0 last season.

Alas, there’s a reason Alabama is once again being given a 99% chance of victory over Chattanooga. The most interesting thing about this one might be figuring out how to spell Chattanooga over and over again.

Nov. 25: Alabama at Auburn — 91.5% chance of win

Finally, the Iron Bowl, and the return of old friend Hugh Freeze to end the season for the Crimson Tide. Alabama disposed of Auburn in a big way last season, outscoring the Tigers by a score of 49-27, with Bryce Young passing for 343 yards against their defense.

Auburn will be looking to lay the groundwork for future success under Freeze, and the best way to lend some hope to that would be with a victory over the Crimson Tide. Alabama will be on the road, but ESPN still believes in them wholeheartedly, giving Auburn just an 8.5% chance of victory over the Crimson Tide.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Alabama — 11.1-1.6

While ESPN is giving Alabama the upper hand in all of their games in 2023, they’re not going as far as to predict an undefeated season, putting Alabama’s final record at 11.1-1.6, which we can round off to 11-1.

However, it should be noted that ESPN isn’t predicting any team to go undefeated, and Alabama currently slots in at No. 2 in their Football Power Index, only behind the Ohio State Buckeyes. That means Saban’s squad is above the back-to-back national champions in the Georgia Bulldogs.

Time will tell what the results on the field yield, but it’s evident 2023 could be another special season for Alabama. Whether they go undefeated or not, a shot at the College Football Playoff is well within their reach.