ESPN insider shares expectations for Alabama in 2024 after coaching change

ESPN insider Bill Connelly has released his returning production ratings for the 2024 season. It should come as no surprise that Alabama is near the bottom nationally after an offseason that has already featured a ton of turnover for the Crimson Tide.

The biggest move was obviously Nick Saban retiring and being replaced by Kalen DeBoer, but Alabama also lost a lot of talent off of last year’s roster. That includes its top three receivers, top two leading rushers and its leading tackler.

Connelly looked ahead to the 2024 season and shared his early thoughts on Alabama during an appearance on The Paul Finebaum Show on Tuesday. Connelly believes Alabama is a difficult team to talk about at this point.

“I think what you keep in mind, typically, is I’ve never found a good way to work coaching changes into my SP+ formula overall, because sometimes you get better, sometimes you get worse,” Connelly said. “If you’re replacing the best college football coach of all time, you’re probably going to get worse. But from a formulaic standpoint, that’s not worked in there.”

Even though Alabama lost a lot of talent from last year, the Crimson Tide still return plenty of playmakers.

Alabama recruited incredibly well under Nick Saban and signed a top-five class this year, according to the On3 Industry rankings. Connelly also expects Alabama to continue to work to improve its roster through the spring and summer through the transfer portal.

“They’re going to come in with great recent history with plenty of great recruiting in their past and on their roster,” Connelly said. “Obviously the turnover was pretty significant, but they’re going to make some moves, I’m sure, after spring football and that transfer window. And they’re going to have a really talented roster next year.”

Connelly added that the biggest issue for Alabama in 2024 might not be talent at all but instead Kalen DeBoer trying to build the culture the way he wants it in Year 1. Saban had a certain way he did things, and even though he will still be around the program some, it will be different under DeBoer.

It will likely take some time for everyone in Tuscaloosa to adjust.

“It’s just changing that culture after Saban is going to be… never mind who returns and who doesn’t. That’s going to be the biggest thing, the biggest challenge, for Kalen DeBoer,” Connelly said. “We’ll see how long it takes him to do it, if he can do it.”