Explaining prediction of Alabama to win SEC West

Despite LSU being perhaps the trendier pick to the win the SEC West in 2023, On3’s Andy Staples isn’t quite buying in on the Tigers yet. As such, and unsurprisingly, he’s picked Alabama as his division winner this season.

The reasoning is simple: Picking against Alabama too often during the Nick Saban era is a really good way to get burned. It’s a lesson staples learned first hand before and after the 2021 SEC Championship Game.

“The last time I picked against Alabama was I picked Georgia to win the 2021 SEC Championship Game. It made sense. Georgia felt like the better team. Georgia actually did beat Alabama for the national title that year. But, going into that game in Atlanta, I was very sure — I was positive — that Georgia was going to beat Alabama. That that Alabama team just wasn’t going to be able to hang with Georgia. Wasn’t going to be able to score on that defense,” Staples said. “Well, afterward, Alabama thanked me and several others in a video for giving them the rat poison that helped beat Georgia and then after that were a bunch of highlights of Alabama destroying Georgia in the second half.”

With that in mind Staples was already a bit of a Crimson Tide lean, even if LSU gives him plenty of reason to chose the Tigers.

He’s not entirely sold on LSU and though he doesn’t love the idea of picking Alabama, Staples would rather be wrong picking the horse that’s won quite a bit more in recent memory. And without being fully bought-in on LSU, it makes the decision a touch easier.

“So, I’m not exactly sure where to go with this. But here’s the thing: My heart doesn’t say LSU. It’s not like it’s screaming ‘LSU is considered to be better than Alabama and the Tigers are definitely going to be better than the Crimson Tide this year.’ I don’t know that that’s true. I feel like it’s still pretty even,” Staples said.

And though it’s not as exciting or trendy to pick the program that has owned the SEC West for basically a decade and a half, Staples is trusting the track record of Saban and Co. in Tuscaloosa.

“So, I guess I’m going to go against what I think the crowd’s going to do, I’m going to say Alabama wins the west. And I know that’s not what everybody wants to hear, because everybody wants to see different matchups. And Georgia-Alabama, we’ve seen them play for the SEC title fairly recently. But, I think that’s where we’re at,” Staples said.