Nate Oats expects Alabama to be a No. 2 seed in NCAA Tournament

Nate Oats doesn’t expect to be sweating Selection Sunday all that much. But it’s what comes after in the days immediately after that the sixth-year Alabama head coach knows will be his team’s true test.

“It’s the NCAA Tournament, only 68 teams get in out of what, 360 some (in) Division I, so we’ll be one of the top eight (overall seeds) — I would guess we’ll be a two seed somewhere,” Oats said Saturday. “It’ll be set up for us to make a deep run again. But we’re going to have to do a little soul searching to see how bad we want make a deep run. The effort I saw in the second half wasn’t what I’d like to see going into the NCAA Tournament.”

On3 bracketologist James Fletcher III and ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi both agree with Oats and currently project the fifth-ranked Crimson Tide (25-8, 13-5 SEC) as a No. 2 seed in the East Regional bracket.

But after No. 4 Florida outscored Alabama by 20 in the second half of Saturday’s 104-82 loss in the the SEC Tournament semifinals, a clearly frustrated Oats openly challenged his team’s fortitude in what will undoubtedly be a challenging 2025 NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens Sunday.

“We’re going to get back (to Tuscaloosa), watch the Selection Show and figure out who the first opponent is, figure out who the next two possible ones after that are, get to work as a staff on a scouting report. (But) our players are going to have to really determine how bad they want to make a run,” Oats continued. “Because it’s really player-led, more than anything, and with the effort and toughness I saw in the second half tonight, that’s not going to get us very far. It might not get us out of the first round, to be honest with you.”

Nate Oats cautions against early NCAA Tournament exit if Alabama doesn’t fix things

“We’re going to see somebody that won a conference tournament in the first round, then we’re going to see somebody that’s really good in the second round, no matter who it is or where it’s at, it’s going to be a seven or a 10 seed, it’d be my guess, and those are really good teams,” Oats concluded. “So we’re going to have to get our guys back, regrouped and try to be the hardest-playing, toughest team on the floor, because we were not tonight.”

Fletcher currently projects the Tide will play Summit League champion Nebraska-Omaha (22-12, 13-3 Summit) in a 2 vs. 15 matchup, with the winner between No. 7 seeded St. Mary’s (28-5, 17-1 WCC) and 10th-seeded Utah State (26-7, 15-15 MWC) waiting in the wings.

Lunardi, on the other hand, projects Alabama will play Horizon League champion Robert Morris (26-8, 15-5 Horizon) ahead of a potential second-round matchup with the winner between seventh-seeded Gonzaga (25-8, 14-4 WCC) and 10th-seeded VCU (27-6, 15-3 A10).

Regardless of who the Crimson Tide are ultimately matched up with on Selection Sunday, Oats knows his team needs to play better than it did in Nashville if its going to make it out of the NCAA Tournament’s opening weekend of games. Oats and Alabama will their their March Madness fate with the rest of the college basketball world during CBS’s Selection Show beginning at 6 pm ET.