Predicting Alabama's record for 2023 season

After Alabama missed the College Football Playoff for just the second time this past season, many are eager to declare the Nick Saban dynasty over in 2023. However, as On3‘s JD PicKell pointed out in a recent episode of The Hard Count, that’s likely wishful thinking.

The Crimson Tide finished 11-2 last season and ended the year with a Sugar Bowl victory, by all means a successful season almost anywhere except for in Tuscaloosa. That’s because of the expectations that Saban has created in leading Alabama to a 194-27 record and six national titles in 16 seasons.

Many of those titles have come immediately after “down years,” including the most recent championship in 2020 that followed the only other time the Crimson Tide have missed the CFP. For that reason, PicKell likes Alabama to return to form, predicting them to go 11-1 in 2023.

“I’ve seen this movie too many times,” he said. “The movie, you ask? Well, 2008 embarrassing loss to Utah. 2009, national title. 2014 they lose to Ohio State in the Playoff and everyone says, ‘OK, that’s what it is. The Playoff. That is the kryptonite for Nick Saban.’ 2015, national title. 2019 (they went) 11-2. ‘They lost two games, are you kidding me? Nick Saban, the game has passed him by.’ 2020, national title.

“So I’m gonna be a little bit slow to jump on the bandwagon that Alabama is somehow too far gone or they’ve lost their way or any of that. That just, to me, feels like a dangerous game to play. So for our prediction for Alabama, going undefeated feels a little bit rich to predict in June. But I look at the schedule and I think 11-1 is where I would fall on the Tide today.”

Alabama loses a lot of key players from last year such as Will Anderson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bryce Young. However, thanks to routinely bringing in four and five-star recruits, there are plenty of players waiting to step in.

Quarterback is the biggest question for the Crimson Tide entering this season. There is a competition brewing between Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner to step in as starter after Young became the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.

Whichever of lose candidates ends up winning the job, however, PicKell thinks Alabama will be fine. Looking at the schedule, he noted that many of the toughest games will take place in Tuscaloosa, which should serve to the Crimson Tide’s benefit.

“You’ve got Texas. That will be a really good test early,” he said. “You’ve got Ole Miss at home, Tennessee at home, LSU at home. Every game that you would have circled at this point in time as a test or ‘hey, make sure you really watch that game,’ you get ’em at the crib. I think several possible slip ups are on this schedule. I mean, at Kentucky, who knows? Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin, you never know with them. Texas early in the year. Tennessee, do they recreate some magic? There’s a lot of slip ups that are possible if you’re looking at this schedule. You could talk yourself into 9-3. Heck, you could talk yourself into 10-2 again.

“The thing with Alabama for me is I’ve just seen this movie too many times. Everybody says ‘Nick Saban, the game has passed him by. Alabama’s done for. They’ve fallen off a cliff.’ They were in the national title game a year ago. They only lost two games. They were two plays away from being undefeated. ‘Yeah, but JD, they were also two other plays away from being 8-4.’ I hear that, but let’s not act like Alabama is just somewhere in the stratosphere and they’ve lost their way.”

We’ll see just how right that prediction is when Alabama kicks off the 2023 season on Sept. 2 against Middle Tennessee.