Rece Davis predicts Alabama to go under 10.5 wins in 2023

Alabama is stuck with the task of replacing star quarterback Bryce Young, and at least one ESPN analyst thinks that’ll be the reason the Crimson Tide go under 10.5 wins in 2023.

Las Vegas has set the over/under on the win total at 10.5, and both Pete Thamel and Rece Davis picked the under on a recent segment on the ESPN College Football YouTube channel.

“I’m going to go under,” Thamel said.

“I am too, by a half game,” Davis said.

The two ESPN analysts proceeded to explain their logic, with Davis outlining the case for Alabama to drop two games before the SEC Championship Game, going under 10.5 wins.

“I’m going to say a couple of losses find them while they’re trying to sort things out,” Davis said. “I think by the end, if they develop, if they get to the SEC Championship Game with those two losses they’ll give Georgia a handful. But I think there’s going to be some growing pains. I’m going to take the under at 10.5 and say 10 on the nose is where they wind up.”

There’s plenty to sort out for the Crimson Tide, not the least of which is the starting quarterback battle.

Coach Nick Saban has played that one close to the vest in fall camp, with Ty Simpson, Tyler Buchner and Jalen Milroe all competing for the job. Milroe had some experience with it last year after Young was briefly hurt, while Buchner started some at Notre Dame.

Simpson is a former high-profile recruit.

Whoever gets the job should be aware of one game in particular not to take lightly. Thamel broke down exactly which game.

“At Texas A&M would scare me a lot if I’m Nick Saban, considering what happened last time they went there, combined with the pure talent of Texas A&M,” Thamel said. “We’ll get to them, but the talent collected there is indisputable and tough place to play.

“You just, I think you mentioned this earlier, and I’ll put a bow on Alabama on this: Bryce Young bailed them out of incalculable bad situations and they just don’t have that anymore. I think that will cost them a game along the line and I’ll leave with this tease: a lot of scouts think Texas is going to go to Alabama and win.”

That game in Week 2 of the season will certainly determine just how much early momentum Alabama carries into the first half of the season.

In any case, both ESPN analysts are projecting Alabama to go under 10.5 wins this fall.