Predicting the ceiling, floor for Arizona State in 2024

Arizona State is one of four schools from the Pac-12 joining the Big 12 in 2024. However, after going 3-9 over the past two years, that move doesn’t suggest better results for the Sun Devils this fall.

On3’s Andy Staples and Ari Temkin of Big 12 Radio examined their floor and ceiling for Arizona State along with the rest of the conference on Monday.

Staples began with the pessimism considering how little continuity that the program has had ahead of year two under Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils have lost 56 transfers over the past two offseasons, which has left little to build on to early on in his tenure.

“Everybody talked about the way that Colorado revamped their roster when Deion Sanders got the job between 2022 and 2023. Kenny Dillingham had to do basically the same thing at Arizona State. Their turnover was almost as much as Colorado’s was or may have been as much Colorado’s was,” said Staples. “It’s slightly less this year but Arizona State has still had a lot of turnover in the transfer portal – this year, most notably, Jaden Rashada leaving after the spring, one of the quarterbacks who probably would have been their starter, maybe.”

The biggest question regarding the portal for them, as both noted, is at quarterback. With Rashada leaving, three quarterbacks who each have their own experiences but nothing of true substance remain to compete for the job.

“The thing for me with Arizona State is they kind of got screwed at the quarterback position,” Temkin said. “To your point, Rashada? He certainly would have been competing with (Sam) Leavitt but there’s a much higher ceiling with Rashada. It feels like this is just a quarterback room of retreads with (Trenton) Bourguet, Jeff Sims coming in from Nebraska.”

“It’s just hard for me to think it comes together because I’m just not very confident in Sam Leavitt as my quarterback. I’m not confident in anybody in that quarterback room,” said Temkin.

At that point, Staples and Temkin turned their concerns to the schedule. That begins with a difficult slate in the non-conference that features three games that will do them zero favors to open with.

“This schedule is interesting. One thing I’ve noticed, Ari, and I don’t know about you? I don’t feel like a lot of the Big 12 challenge themselves much out of conference. This one is actually pretty tricky,” said Staples. “Like, Wyoming is no slouch. Mississippi State? They’re going to be pretty talented compared to Arizona State. If you’re going to bring an SEC team in, that’s the one you wanted to bring in. At Texas State? I don’t like this game at all. Like, G.J. Kinne did a great job there, got them to a bowl game for the first time, and now they have Jordan McCloud, who was James Madison’s quarterback last year, coming in to take over. Like, I don’t like that game. This is an Arizona State team that I think it going to struggle anyway. That’s not a game you want to play.”

“Looking at their schedule, the thing that stands out to me more than anything is the difficulty of their non-conference,” Temkin said. “I agree with you. Like, the non-conference is tough. It may even be tougher than their conference slate.”

Those three come prior to a conference schedule in a new league that then features all of its projected top teams.

“Their draw in terms of who they got? They got all the contenders too. Like, they do play Utah, they do play Kansas State, they do play at Oklahoma State. Like, they didn’t get to miss anybody unfortunately either,” Staples added. “When you’re not going to have that strong of a roster, that’s not the draw that you want.”

Ceiling: 5-7

For Arizona State’s ceiling, Staples and Temkin went with an overall record of 5-7. For what it’s worth, Temkin was almost not even that optimistic when thinking about the schedule before ultimately agreeing.

“I’m thinking 5-7 for the ceiling,” Staples said.

“I’m not even sure that I see five wins on there,” Temkin thought. “I guess that’s about as good as you can get from a ceiling.”

Floor: 2-10

For a floor, though, both Staples and Temkin went as low as two wins. That’s because neither of them could get past that difficult three-game stretch that the Sun Devils will start out with.

“I’m thinking 2-10 for the floor because that non-conference is tricky,” said Staples

I don’t even see any gimmes in the non-conference,” added Temkin. “Like, if they go 1-2 to start, I think that’d be a pretty good start for them.

Arizona State has posted three or less wins in three seasons over the four in this decade. That may not be changing in their debut in the Big 12 either based on the assessments of Staples and Temkin.

“This could get pretty ugly for Arizona State in year one in the Big 12,” Temkin said.

“It could be a tough year in Tempe,” Staples admitted.