Predicting ceiling, floor for Arizona in 2024 season

Arizona arrives in the expanded Big 12 with a brand new coach but some star power returning, and they may have a shot to win the league in year one, according to On3’s Andy Staples and Ari Temkin of Big 12 Radio on Sirius XM.

Those two broke down the ceilings and floors of every single Big 12 team in a live On3 YouTube stream Monday morning. When it came to Arizona, there was great optimism in the Wildcats being good team at the very least. However, their ceiling was a point of debate among the two analysts.

So, read below on what Staples and Temkin had to say on Arizona’s best and worst outcomes for the 2024 season:

Ceiling: College Football Playoff

The optimism begins with the continuity leftover from the brief but successful Jedd Fisch era with Brent Brennan taking over.

“When Jedd Fisch left for Washington, my assumption was a good chunk of this roster was going to Seattle,” said Staples. “That did not happen,” he added, noting the important personnel returns.

“Noah Fifita, the quarterback who took over last year, that was probably the biggest thing that shifted for them that that turned them into the hottest team in the country. Then, you got Tetairoa McMillan, who is maybe the best receiver in the country. He stayed. Tecario Davis, the cornerback, stayed.

“A lot of those guys who came in 2022 in that first full class that Jedd Fisch signed decided to stay together in Tucson. I think, with Brent Brennan taking over, they bring back a team that can very much win the Big 12.”

Strong words from Andy Staples, and Ari Temkin emphasized that getting all those dudes back is a huge plus for this team, and it started with the QB.

“The fact that they did that is shocking in this day and age in college football. And I think what’s what helped Arizona was number one, Fifita staying, and then McMillan, he decided to stay.

“So I think Fifita staying played a crucial role. Without the quarterback, McMillan’s gone. Then, I think because McMillan and Fifita stayed, that created a domino effect on defense with some of those guys staying. Coming into league, I think there’s about as much excitement around Arizona as there is anybody else.”

At the end of the day, Staples says he could envision a scenario where Arizona is one of those 12 teams competing for a national title at the end of the season.

“I just say the ceiling is the playoff, and that could mean winning the league, that could mean going 11-1 , losing the championship game and then still getting in as an at large. I think that’s a probably a good basket to put it them in, and then I’m not sure they would advance if they make the playoff. But CFP is their ceiling. I think they can either win this league or be an at large if all goes right.”

Temkin wasn’t quite as high and commented, “I’ll say ceiling is eight wins,” which he explained more below.

Floor: Bowl game

After revealing his lower ceiling than Staples, Ari Temkin added:

“But here’s my question to you Andy: can they play Big 12 style football? You look at the big 12 it’s one of the best rushing conferences in college football. I just don’t know that their ceiling is to compete for a Big 12 Championship. Again, this league forces you to have to run the football and I question whether or not they could do that.”

Staples then brought of the matter of scheduling, as Arizona will have to go face two foes on the road who they’ll need to establish a rushing game against.

“Schedules matter, where you play teams matters. Arizona has the toughest two-game stretch in league play in the Big 12. Now, there’s a there’s an open weekend between these games, but they’ve got to go to Kansas State and to Utah in consecutive games.”

Temkin piggy-backed: “Kansas State, Utah, you know, overwhelmingly the two favorites in this league right now and it’s hard to disagree with that. Not only that, but BYU, you also go to UCF.”

Some good and physical opponents and on the road in every time zone in the country practically. With that tough schedule but still some star talent, Staples just doesn’t foresee the bottom falling out for Arizona.

“With the floor, it is: this is another disaster, all has gone wrong. Like, a lot of your coin flip games, you lost. But I still think this team has such a nice core about it. I’m gonna put their floor at 7-5. I think they’re going to be a pretty good team no matter what.”

Ari Temkin, more of an Arizona skeptic, doesn’t see disaster striking either:

“I agree with you there. Every fiber in my body wants to say Arizona’s set up for a disappointing year this year. Those guys are just too talented to think that this team, its floor is anything lower than a bowl game. So I agree with you there. Floor is 5-6 wins.”