ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Arkansas in 2023

With Sam Pittman preparing to enter his fourth season as coach, Arkansas will hope 2023 can be the year it takes a step forward in the SEC West. After ranking third in the division in 2021, the Razorbacks were hampered by injuries in 2022 to finish fifth with a 3-5 conference record.

Arkansas should again feature one of the top rushing attacks in the SEC after finishing with 236.7 ground yards per game this past season. Top rusher Raheim “Rocket” Sanders and dual-threat quarterback KJ Jefferson return, as does backup running back AJ Green.

However, the Razorbacks lose several key members in the secondary as well as their top four receivers from a year ago, so the passing game has a lot of questions. Via its Football Power Index, ESPN released its game-by-game predictions for Arkansas in 2023, which you can view below.

Sept. 2: Arkansas vs. Western Carolina — 99% chance of win

Arkansas kicks off the 2023 season with what should be an easy win. Playing in the FCS, Western Carolina is coming off of a 6-5 finish this past season, and ESPN isn’t giving it much of a shot to pull off an upset.

This game will serve as more of a chance for the Razorbacks to sort out their receivers rotation and figure things out on the defensive side. Then they’ll enter Week 2 with a 1-0 record as they prepare for another winnable matchup.

Sept. 9: Arkansas vs. Kent State — 93.2% chance of win

The Golden Flashes present a slightly more challenging opponent according to ESPN, but Arkansas is still the heavy favorite here. Kent State went 5-7 in 2022 and enters this season with a new coach as Kenni Burns steps in after Sean Lewis joined Deion Sanders’ staff at Colorado.

The Golden Flashes also lost a lot of their production from last season, including their starting quarterback and top three receivers. This is truly a rebuilding year for them, and this game represents another opportunity at a “tune-up” for Arkansas.

Sept. 16: Arkansas vs. BYU — 76.6% chance of win

Arkansas will play at home for the third straight week, which should also increase its chances of victory in the early going. The Razorbacks will draw BYU, which enters its first season as a member of the Big 12, in Week 3.

The two schools also met this past season in Provo with Arkansas pulling off a 52-35 victory over the Cougars. It seems a similar outcome is expected this year in Fayetteville as the Razorbacks should enter SEC play with a 3-0 record.

Sept. 23: Arkansas at LSU — 16.3% chance of win

Arkansas now enters the most brutal part of its 2023 schedule, with games against ranked opponents for the next month. The Razorbacks kick off SEC play on the road against an LSU team that won the SEC West in 2022 and is expected to compete for a Playoff spot this season.

The Tigers narrowly escaped Arkansas in Fayetteville last season with a 13-10 victory. With quarterback Jayden Daniels returning to Baton Rouge, this game will feature two of the league’s top QBs in him and Jefferson. The Razorbacks need Jefferson to show up if they are to have a chance here.

Sept. 30: Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (at AT&T Stadium) — 39.9% chance of win

Pittman has a 1-2 record against Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies since taking over in 2020. Even last year when the Aggies finished with a disappointing 5-7 record, Arkansas was one of its five wins as it lost 23-21 and missed a potential go-ahead field goal with 1:30 to go.

Texas A&M has still yet to announce a starting quarterback with less than two weeks until the regular season begins. However, with weapons like receivers Evan Stewart and Ainias Smith, the Aggies should have a much-improved passing attack after ranking 10th in the SEC this past season. Of this four-game stretch, however, the Southwest Classic represents one of the better chances of coming out with a win for Arkansas.

Oct. 7: Arkansas at Ole Miss — 32.5% chance of win

Arkansas handed Ole Miss a 42-27 loss last year in Fayetteville as Jefferson and Sanders combined to score six touchdowns. Still, the Razorbacks have yet to pull off a win in Oxford since 2017.

This year’s matchup will pit two of the SEC’s top rushing attacks against each other as the Rebels return reigning SEC Freshman of the Year Quinshon Judkins. Both offenses look strong entering the year, and Arkansas will need to be ready to keep up with Ole Miss’ fast-paced attack in what should be a pivotal game for the SEC West standings.

Oct. 14: Arkansas at Alabama — 8.3% chance of win

Arkansas better hope it can come away with one or two wins in the three games before this matchup. The Razorbacks have not beaten Alabama since 2006, and ESPN doesn’t seem to believe this will be the year it snaps that streak.

The Crimson Tide are a perennial contender under Nick Saban and should enter this year on a mission after missing the College Football Playoff in 2022. Anything can happen and you don’t want to pencil in an outcome either way, but this game being in Tuscaloosa won’t help Arkansas’ chances of an upset.

Oct. 21: Arkansas at Mississippi State — 58.7% chance of win

After being away from Fayetteville the past four weeks, the Razorbacks will finally return home to face Mississippi State. Depending on how they fared in the previous month of action, this could end up being a pivotal game as they enter the back half of conference play.

The Bulldogs handed Arkansas a 40-17 loss in 2022 as quarterback Will Rogers tore up a depleted secondary for 406 yards and three touchdowns. With secondary again a big question entering this season, the Razorbacks will have to do a better job of containing Rogers and the passing attack if they hope to win.

Nov. 4: Arkansas at Florida — 36.3% chance of win

Coming off of a bye in Week 9, Arkansas heads to The Swamp to take on Billy Napier and the Florida Gators. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is one of the most intimidating venues in all of college football and the Razorbacks have never won there, carrying an 0-5 record into this game.

This will be the first time the two schools have faced off since 2020 and Florida is a vastly different program. The Gators bring in a new quarterback in Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz and were picked to finish fifth in the SEC East, so perhaps this is the year Arkansas can walk out of Gainesville with a win.

Nov. 11: Arkansas vs. Auburn — 64.5% chance of win

After beginning the year with three straight home games, Arkansas will close the 2023 season in the same manner. The final stretch begins with a matchup against Auburn, which is set to enter its first season under coach Hugh Freeze.

The Tigers have revamped their roster after back-to-back losing seasons to add 21 transfers including former Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne. It could take time to see results, however, and this seems like a game the Razorbacks should be able to win.

Nov. 18: Arkansas vs. Florida International — 95.9% chance of win

After going through the gauntlet of SEC play, Arkansas will get a brief break before closing out the conference slate the following week. The Razorbacks will have to be careful not to get caught sleeping in this game as they did last season in a late nonconference loss to Liberty.

However, Florida Atlantic shouldn’t be nearly as challenging an opponent as the Flames, who entered that game ranked No. 21 in the country, proved. That’s why ESPN isn’t giving the Panthers much of a chance at an upset here.

Nov. 24: Arkansas vs. Missouri — 63.5% chance of win

It’ll be a short week for Arkansas coming off the game against Florida International, as they host Missouri for the annual Battle Line Rivalry the Friday after Thanksgiving. The Tigers have won six of the past seven matchups against the Razorbacks, including a 29-27 victory last season in Columbia.

Missouri has often been thought of as a sleeper team in the SEC thanks to what should be a solid defense and the return of quarterback Brady Cook. If the offense can improve after putting up 24.8 points per game (10th in the SEC) in 2022, the Tigers could stand a chance to make some noise and continue their recent dominance over the Razorbacks here.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Arkansas — 6.9-5.1

ESPN likes Arkansas to finish with a record of around 7-5 after the Razorbacks went 6-6 in the regular season this past year. Looking at the other teams in the SEC West, that puts them behind Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss — or fifth in the division.

However, given how close ESPN predicted the games against the Rebels and Aggies are projected to be, it seems those matchups could be the difference maker. If Arkansas is able to win one or both of those contests, it could be looking at eight or nine wins for the 2023 regular season. If they can hit nine, it would match Pittman’s best record since taking over (9-4 in 2021).