ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Auburn in 2023

A new era of Auburn football is close to officially getting underway as the Tigers will play their first game under head coach Hugh Freeze on Saturday, Sept. 2 against UMass. Freeze has brought excitement and renewed hope to the Auburn program as he has recruited well and appears to have the Tigers heading in the right direction.

It will likely take some time for Freeze to build Auburn up to the point that it’s a competitor in the SEC West, but there’s hope that the Tigers will be improved from their 5-7 record in 2022.

In addition to a new head coach, Auburn will also have a new starting quarterback in transfer Payton Thorne, who passed for more than 5,900 yards and 46 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Michigan State. Thorne should do well under Freeze, who had impressive offenses throughout his time at Liberty. Here is a full game-by-game prediction for Auburn’s 2023 season from ESPN FPI:

Sept. 2: Auburn vs. UMass — 95.9% chance to win

UMass is 3-37 in its last four seasons and hasn’t won more than one game in a season since 2018. Don Brown was hired as the UMass head coach for the second time ahead of the 2022 season. He had a successful run leading the Minutemen from 2004-08, but UMass went 1-11 in his first year back.

The hope is that UMass will be improved in Year 2 under Brown, but this should be nothing more than a tune up for Auburn and a way for the Tigers to build some confidence early on in Freeze’s first season.

Sept. 9: Auburn at Cal — 44.6% chance to win

Cal didn’t exactly impress in 2022, finishing the season 4-8. Head coach Justin Wilcox hasn’t had a winning season at Cal since 2019. Still, ESPN FPI predicts the Bears to beat Auburn in Week 2.

Despite the projection from ESPN and the fact that this will be the first real test for Auburn under Freeze, this would be a disappointing loss for the Tigers. Auburn shouldn’t expect an easy game, but to avoid losing momentum that has been built up this offseason, the Tigers need to find a way to win.

Sept. 16: Auburn vs. Samford — 97.5% chance to win

The Tigers return home for what should be an easy win against Samford before SEC play gets underway. Samford is a solid FCS program, and the Bulldogs put up 52 points in a loss at Florida two seasons ago. But if Auburn comes ready to play, this shouldn’t be much of a game.

Auburn should be able to build some confidence and get a comfortable win before SEC play begins. After this game, the competition gets much tougher.

Sept. 23: Auburn at Texas A&M — 26.6% chance to win

Auburn has its second road test of the season at a place that is always difficult to play in Kyle Field. There is some pressure on Jimbo Fisher after Texas A&M went 5-7 last year, and you can bet that Fisher will want to avoid losing to a first-year head coach, particularly at home.

The Aggies have a lot of talent, for sure, but it remains to be seen how it will all come together. Texas A&M brought in Bobby Petrino this offseason in hopes of helping its offense. This will be a good early test for the Aggies, too, as well as their first SEC game of the season.

Sept. 30: Auburn vs. Georgia — 11.8% chance to win

The schedule doesn’t get any easier as the Tigers return home to face two-time defending national champion Georgia. The Bulldogs have a loaded roster from top to bottom as Kirby Smart has built a powerhouse program in Athens.

The good news — if there is any for Auburn — is that Georgia will have a first-year starting quarterback who will be making his first career road start. You can bet that Jordan-Hare Stadium will be rocking, but it might not matter as Georgia has a clear edge in talent.

Oct. 14: Auburn at LSU — 14.4% chance to win

Following a bye week, Auburn faces another preseason top 5 opponent in LSU. The Tigers have arguably the top quarterback in the SEC in Jayden Daniels and have high expectations after winning the SEC West in Brian Kelly‘s first season.

Auburn isn’t given much of a chance to win this game, either. That’s not exactly a surprise as Kelly has quickly put together an elite roster in Baton Rouge.

Oct. 21: Auburn vs. Ole Miss — 36.1% chance to win

Auburn may come limping into this game as the Tigers are likely to be pretty big underdogs in all three matchups against Texas A&M, Georgia and LSU. The odds don’t give Auburn a great chance to win against Ole Miss, either, but this would be a big one for Freeze to get in Year 1.

Lane Kiffin has done a solid job with the Rebels, but Ole Miss does have some question marks. Perhaps Freeze and Auburn can take advantage of that and avoid what could be a fourth straight loss by beating his former team.

Oct. 28: Auburn vs. Mississippi State — 54.4% chance to win

This is the first Power 5 opponent the FPI has Auburn favored over and it comes in late October. With that said, it’s not as if this is expected to be an easy win for the Tigers. FPI sees this as close to a toss up game.

Mississippi State does have a veteran quarterback in Will Rogers and a head coach who has produced excellent defenses in Zach Arnett. That combination should make the Bulldogs competitive against most teams in Arnett’s first season as head coach.

Nov. 4: Auburn at Vanderbilt — 66.3% chance to win

Up next is another game Auburn should win as the Tigers travel to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt. Vandy head coach Clark Lea has the Commodores headed in the right direction as his squad went 5-7 (2-6) in his second season in Nashville. The program had won only five games total in the previous three years.

Still, there’s a large talent gap between Vanderbilt and Auburn, and Vandy’s stadium is the easiest for opponents to play in in the SEC. The Tigers should win this game without too much of a fight.

Nov. 11: Auburn at Arkansas — 35.5% chance to win

Sam Pittman has done a solid job at Arkansas, producing back-to-back winning seasons. The Razorbacks return one of the top quarterback-running back duos in the country in KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders.

This should be a pretty competitive game, but heading into the season, Arkansas appears further along entering Year 4 under Pittman than Auburn does entering Year 1 under Freeze. Perhaps the Tigers can pull off the surprise, though.

Nov. 18: vs. New Mexico State — 94.6% chance to win

Auburn concludes out-of-conference play with a matchup against New Mexico State, before its annual showdown with Alabama. The Aggies did make and win a bowl game last season, finishing the year 7-6. But Auburn has more talent and should win pretty comfortably.

An interesting note — New Mexico State did handle Hugh Freeze’s previous team last season. The Aggies beat Liberty 49-14 last November, before Freeze left for Auburn.

Nov. 25: vs. Alabama — 11.1% chance to win

Rivalry games are typically unpredictable, but FPI has Alabama winning the Iron Bowl fairly easily. While Nick Saban‘s club does have some question marks, Alabama always has a loaded roster and this year is no different.

Auburn did give Alabama all it wanted the last time the two teams met at Jordan-Hare Stadium, before the Crimson Tide squeaked out a win in overtime. Perhaps Auburn can step up again and make this game more competitive than most people are expecting.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Auburn — 5.9-6.1

Auburn is projected to finish around .500 in Year 1 under Hugh Freeze. The Tigers at least reaching a bowl game would help with momentum on the recruiting trail and would be a solid step in the right direction.

If Auburn can win the five games it is projected to and at least one of the three it is given a 35-45% chance of winning, it would be a good first year for Freeze. Anything more than that would be an added bonus for the 2023 season.