Auburn Tigers Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

The Hugh Freeze era of Auburn Football hasn’t gotten off to the best start, and the recent fan criticism about his golf game amid ongoing recruiting struggles certainly doesn’t help entering Year 3. Still, after an offseason roster overhaul, including at quarterback, Tigers fans aren’t without hope ahead of a pivotal 2025 on The Plains.

After opening 2024 with a 2-5 mark, Auburn failed to qualify for a bowl for the second time in the last three seasons, the last coming in Bryan Harsin‘s final season (2022) — which snapped a nine-year bowl streak. Freeze is just 11-14 overall and 5-11 in SEC play through two seasons on The Plains, and faces potential hot seat consideration if the Tigers can’t show considerable improvement in Year 3.

Given all that’s at stake, veteran college football expert Phil Steele provided his evaluation on Auburn’s 2025 outlook in his annual College Football ’25 Preview magazine.

Offense

Freeze has long been known as a skilled offensive playcaller, and was arguably hired as much for his past success against Alabama when Freeze was at Ole Miss. Which is why Auburn’s offensive issues through Freeze’s first two seasons have been so confounding for fans. But with former Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold taking over at QB, and former Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. joining sophomore Cam Coleman at WR, Steele’s analytics are confident in a steady offensive improvement in 2025.

Steele: “Auburn has gone a school record 155 games without being shutout. This year they lose their QB, 1,000-yard rusher and top WR, but are stronger on the O-line, solid at the other units, and this time my computer is calling for 433 ypg and 30.2 ppg.”

Defense

While the offense has faced its own issues, Auburn’s defense has been fairly consistent under second-year DC DJ Durkin, including ranking in the middle of the league in total defense allowing 330.8 ypg and 21.3 ppg, both numbers an improvement from the year before. With six starters back from last season’s unit, including junior EDGE Keldric Faulk and rising sophomore linebacker Demarcus Riddick, Steele expects another strong showing in 2025.

Steele: “Last year my computer called for them to allow 339 ypg and 23.7 ppg and they gave up 331 and 21.3 ppg. This year (six) starters are back and they remain a strong unit. Last year’s D held foes to 48 ypg below their average and should improve on that this year.”

Phil Steele’s 2025 Forecast

Since its memorable 2013 run to the BCS National Championship game in Gus Malzahn‘s first season, Auburn has achieved 10 or more win in a season just once (2017) over the last 11 seasons, and hasn’t topped the 8-win mark since Malzahn’s second-to-last season in 2019. Steele cited the Tigers’ positive progression in the stat sheet, going from a 45 ypg deficit in SEC play in 2023 to a plus-62 ypg net gain in league play in 2024. Of course, if the Tigers are going to quiet any bubbling hot seat talk around Freeze, it’ll likely require not only improvement on the field, but also in the win column in Year 3.

Steele: “Auburn has not had (five) straight losing seasons since 1946-50. Freeze is doing a solid job building this team and they have my #4 rated receivers, #12 rated O-line and should have solid QB play. The defense remains stout and the special teams should be much improved. Usually when a team is +62 ypg in league play, they are 6-2 not 2-6, so they were much better than their record and make my Most Improved list and are #24 in my Power Poll.”