ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi reveals chances Auburn could fall from No. 1 overall seed in NCAA Tournament

For eight straight weeks, the Auburn Tigers reigned supreme over the college basketball world as the country’s undisputed No. 1 ranked team. That run ended with the release of this week’s AP and Coaches polls after the SEC regular-season champion Tigers lost its final two games ahead of this week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville.

Given its late-season stumble, Auburn’s once-certain place as the No. 1 overall seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament has been placed in doubt, especially if the No. 3 Tigers suffer a third-straight loss when they hit the court Friday in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals from Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena.

But even then, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi believes No. 3 Auburn (27-4, 15-3 SEC) is all-but assured to be the top-overall seed on Selection Sunday, notwithstanding an out-of-this-world performance from either No. 1 Duke (28-3) or No. 2 Houston (27-4) in the ongoing ACC and Big 12 tournaments, respectively.

“I’ve been saying for two weeks that Auburn could lose out and still be the No. 1 overall seed, because they have lapped the field by such a wide margin. I still believe that,” Lunardi said Wednesday during a Zoom call with national media. “I think if Auburn were to lose their quarterfinal on Friday and Duke or Houston were to blitz their respective tournaments, there would be a lot of talk about elevating one of them to No. 1 overall.

“But at the end of the day, (Auburn has played) 20 Quad 1 games (with) 16 Quad 1 wins, half of them in Quad 1-A, which is the top half of Quad 1. We haven’t seen a resume like this since Kentucky went whatever it was, 38-0, to the (2015) Final Four ten years ago.”

Joe Lunardi: ‘I still believe Auburn’s name will be the first one called’ on Selection Sunday

The Tigers haven’t been quite that dominant this season, but pretty darn close to it, only losing to the host Blue Devils (84-78) on Dec. 4 and sixth-ranked Florida (90-81) on Feb. 8, prior to last week’s setbacks against No. 22 Texas A&M (83-72) and rival No. 7 Alabama (93-91).

Auburn currently holds the No. 2 spot in both the NET and KenPom rankings with an elite 16-4 mark in Quad 1 games thanks in large part to the nation’s No. 1-rated offensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Given those metrics, and the fact that Auburn was the NCAA Selection Committee’s unanimous top overall seed in last month’s reveal of its Top 16 seeds, Lunardi doesn’t expect the committee will change course at this point.

“I still believe Auburn’s name will be the first one called Sunday night,” Lunardi continued. “And I suppose there’s a scenario that they’re the second or even the third No. 1 seed, but they’re going to be a No. 1 seed, they’re going to be at a preferred location.

“And they’re going to be prohibitive Final Four favorites. Like, if whatever loss they were to take on Friday were to happen in the second week of December, we wouldn’t even be having the conversation,” Lunardi concluded. “The committee has made it very clear, whether we like it or not, that games in November mean as much if not more than like this coming Saturday or Sunday, and they’ve seeded teams by that criteria in recent years. And I’d be extremely surprised if they deviated from that.”