Explaining why Auburn will go under win total in 2023

On3’s J.D. PicKell recently discussed every SEC’s win total set in Las Vegas, deciding to take the under 6.5 wins for Auburn. With the bet, PicKell views the Tigers as a .500 team at best under first-year head coach Hugh Freeze. To most, that would be a major disappointment as some sort of progress is wanted on the Plains.

PicKell recently decided to defend his position, explaining his thought logic. His first point came from the scheduling, citing some of the opponents Auburn has to play. Very few teams can outperform their schedule, especially for a program just bouncing back in the right direction.

“If we can call a spade a spade, the SEC is going to be a gauntlet,” PicKell said. “Auburn has to play a lot of the top teams in the SEC. That’s a fact.”

Dealing with a tough schedule is nothing new for Auburn. Every single season, they have to play college football’s top two programs, Alabama and Georgia. Now, hosting both at Jordan-Hare Stadium is beneficial, especially against the Crimson Tide. But on June 1, PicKell is likely hesitant to bet against Nick Saban.

Looking past the schedule, Freeze is still going through a transitional period. Bryan Harsin did not leave the Auburn program in the best shape, both from a roster and culture perspective. As highly thought of Freeze is, he cannot snap his fingers and fix problems.

“There’s a reason Hugh Freeze is the head coach now,” PicKell said. “There’s is a reason Bryan Harsin is no longer on the sideline for Auburn. Why? They weren’t getting it done. Recruiting. People will say things about culture… Auburn missed a bowl game last year. They are in an acclimation period, revamp period. Whatever kind of verbiage you want to put to it, they’re revamping.”

PicKell did point out one thing Freeze did take advantage of was the NCAA transfer portal. Several guys are expected to be plugged in as key contributors, including quarterback Payton Thorne via Michigan State.

But that’s just a small portion of what will be a long road for the Tigers. PicKell just feels like the right bet is to take the under.

“Why I have them under 6.5 is because I’m placing a bet,” PicKell said. “I’m not going off the feel or what I think they could do. I’m placing a bet and I think the SEC is brutal and I think the roster is going to take a second to formulate. If you disagree, God Bless you. That’s your right to do that. That’s where the bet would lie.”